Collective emotions about upcoming 2020 Presidential Elections. It goes beyond Sad, Anger or Trust.

US Presidential election 2020 is one of the toughest to predict both politically and statistically. I have been studying all sorts of predictions from university professors to political experts and I see a common theme. They all predict the outcome based on a certain model and conclude with a note that it's 2020 and anything can happen! And we all get it, the world has seen so much in the last 8 months. The wildfires in Australia and the USA, the floods in India, the earthquake in Turkey, civil unrest, unemployment, and a global pandemic. Each one of us is affected by it to a certain degree. Right now, in the USA, we have elections coming up adding to 'election stress' in people and when people are stressed, modeling/studying their behavior gets tricky as their actions are rather a function of emotional triggers than rationality.

Studying human emotions is my research area and wearing the hat of a social scientist I wanted to get a deeper understanding of underlying stressors and emotions that people are collectively feeling and expressing on social media. I choose to include social, economical, and environmental issues that are concerning people in the US currently (right before elections). Some of the key topics were COVID-19 and its handling, Race and ethical injustices, the Affordable Care Act, the US economy, Tax reforms, Environmental concerns and policies. With this work, I intended to not predict the outcome but identify the complex emotions that might be driving the polarity and in turn contributing to the election outcome.

This study is based on Plutchik's wheel of emotions where he identifies 8 primary emotions (Joy, Trust, Fear, Surprise, Sadness, Disgust, Anger and Anticipation) and 28 complex emotions (Love, Guilt, Delight, Bitter sweetness, Morbidness, Pride, Optimism, Submission, Curiosity, Sentimentality, Ambivalence, Dominance, Hope, Awe, Despair, Shame, Frozenness, Anxiety, Disapproval, Unbelief, Outrage, Confusion, Remorse, Envy, Pessimism, Contempt, Cynicism and Aggressiveness).

I looked at more than 350K tweets on various topics tweeted on (9/30/2020). Used Lexicon and Machine learning methods to identify complex emotions. Here's what people are feeling....

Results-

1. Racism - Sadness, Trust and Anticipation are the underlying primary emotions and Sentimentality, Submission, and Anxiety along with Hope were the complex emotions. It was also seen that there were smaller groups (network) of people forming communities to support and give voice to victims and each other.
2. ACT(Affordable care act) - Primary emotions were Surprise, Trust, and Anticipation. Secondary emotions were Confusion, Curiosity, and Hope.
3. COVID-19 - Primary emotions were Fear, Trust, and Anticipation. Secondary emotions were Submission, Sentimentality, and Hope.
4. Environment - Primary emotions were Trust, Anticipation, and Fear. Secondary emotions were Anxiety, Submission, and Hope.

Overall, people are Confused, Anxious, and feeling Sentimental about events that are happening around them. Submission, which is an emotion that is a combination of trust and fear is an underlying feeling that will influence the outcome of the 2020 elections.

So, what does this mean to campaign managers and the candidates?

1. Invest your campaign dollars in easing people's fears. Fears are temporary and a snapshot of current events. Fears need quick working resolution than a detailed 4-year plan.
2. Anxiety is a combination of Anticipation and Fear. Design a campaign that could land an element of surprise and out-of-box solutions. This nullifies anxiety.
3. Land your messages with empathy. Put people's emotions before your agenda. Focus on words that building optimism, love, and delight. 
4. And finally, remember that these emotions are snapshot in time and so should be your messages.