The Collapse of the Afghan System

????????????Why Did the Afghan System Collapse? ??? by Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi

???????August 18, 2021: ????The return of the Taliban to Kabul on August 15, 2021, is a remarkable event for understanding why a superpower like the United States does not always succeed in achieving its global agenda??What are the limits of power??What kept the Afghan Taliban alive as a militant movement for twenty years??As the U.S. faced the limits of power, do the Taliban face a similar challenge after taking over Kabul? Are there limits to the?Taliban power for ruling Afghanistan???

????The latest events in Afghanistan have demonstrated, once again, the limits of brute military power.?The United States is the strongest military power and the biggest economy in the world. It can challenge any powerful country or dislodge a governing system in a militarily weak and internally divided country or destabilize a government. However, all this does not guarantee American success in creating stable political and governmental system that stays linked up with American interest.??The U.S. launched powerful military invasion of Afghanistan (October-November 2001) and Iraq (March-April 2003), dislodged the governments of the Afghan Taliban and Saddam Hussain. However, it failed in stabilizing the political situation in both countries.

??Though one can find examples from history about the inability of the militarily powerful states to achieve satisfactory political and military outcome of a conflictual situation.?This has become more difficult after the end of the Cold War and the transformation of the global power politics in the last two decades.?A conventional military power can counter another conventional military power. It may make gains in the short run. However, it is always difficult to consolidate military gains in term of transformation of the targeted state and society. The single dimensional strategy of relying heavily on conventional military power is not an advisable methodology of achieving military and political agendas. The military strategy needs to be combined with several non-military sources of power if the objective is to go beyond destruction and loot of the adversary.

????The coupling of military and non-military sources of power is more important when , the military encounter is with an adversary that is?non-conventional, partly invisible, and not based in one specific place.?This includes transnational militant movements whose members are highly motivated and determined to fight for their goals for an indefinite period.??The Afghan Taliban fall in this category who managed to survive American military onslaught.??Such a non-conventional entity can manage to survive in an extremely difficult environment and spring back in action after a long time. These movements develop strong societal roots, backed by ideological cohesion which help them to survive.

???The United States knocked out the first Taliban government from Kabul in November 2001, and installed Hamid Karzai as the interim President in December.?Ashraf Ghani replaced him as President in September 2014. Both governments worked under the protective umbrella of the United States and created a network of loyalists in the name of democracy, human rights, modern education and enhanced role of women. This network comprised many Afghans who returned to Afghanistan from abroad to benefit from the new system either by joining with the new Kabul government or work with American troops. A young generation got the opportunity to get modern education revived by these two governments.?They were joined by a host of people who always stay with those in power.??This coalition of political opportunists and new elite was projected as the new Afghanistan sharing modern democratic values with the West.?The U.S. also created Afghan National Army and the Police and an intelligence agency to sustain the system after the exit of the U.S. and NATO forces.

?????This modern and democratic sector of the society was limited to Kabul and two-three cities only and lacked roots?in the Afghan society that included towns and villages that did not benefit from this change. ???The U.S. spent little amount on economic reconstruction and human development and diverted its attention in 2003 to conquering Saddam Hussain’s Iraq.?India was brought in for undertaking social welfare projects.?The new Afghan system neither had the roots among the people nor did it improve the quality of life for the ordinary people. Consequently, when?the Afghan Taliban mounted military pressure on different cities,?the local administration and the society generally cooperated with them or agreed to work with them after some resistance. The modern sector created by the U.S and Kabul government collapsed.?The same could be said about the Afghan National Army and the Police created by the U.S.??As the large part of work for setting up the Afghan National Army and Police was done by American Contractors, they were more interested in making money than creating a professional and committed army. There were periodic reports of defections in the army and the existence of many?“ghost soldiers” in Afghanistan. There was a poor relationship between the senior command and the lower ranks, especially the soldiers. They lacked professionalism and commitment to fight the Taliban

???The experience of Afghanistan and the Middle East and North Africa shows that democracy and other western liberal values cannot be imposed from ?above.?It is important to first understand the traditional values and social system of the society and then work for changes in them through popular mobilization. This process of change must benefit the common people so that they develop a stake in the new system of governance and social change.?If the process of change only creates a new elite class in the name of democracy and human rights, the change stays rootless and non-enduring.

??American failure in Afghanistan is their inability to stabilize the political and state systems that they?created after dislodging the first Taliban regime.?The new system did not develop popular roots. It was bound to collapse when American protective shield was withdrawn.????

????The Taliban have succeeded in dislodging the U.S. and its local allies. However, they face a bigger challenge of creating a stable and peaceful internal political?order that accommodates ethnic and religious diversity in the internal context?and addresses the concerns of the global community?created by their difficult experience with the first Taliban government. ?The Taliban need to behave like a responsible state rather than a radical religious movement that?works actively with other transnational radical movements. The initial policy statements of the Afghan Taliban are reassuring, but these statements must be turned into concrete actions through their new governance arrangements. ++++++