Cold weather due for departure...but will it return?

Hands up who saw some snow? Hopefully many of you who like the white stuff did so, we had a couple of cm's here at HQ and as ever it was enjoyed to the max - being a grown up is obviously not an option when snow is on the ground! 

Over the next few nights further sharp frosts look likely across central and eastern areas in particular, but any snow will be very limited, then as we move through Thu/Fri temps look set to rise as winds return to an all too familiar SW'erly direction.

These winds will bring bands of rain or showers across all areas during Friday and the weekend, but any return to the deluges of December looks very unlikely, with pressure still expected to remain relatively high. During next week the general flow will be from between S and SW, keeping temperatures on the mild side for most, with the warmest conditions of all likely across the NW. S'ern and especially SE'ern parts of England closest to the high pressure over the continent  may se some colder weather at times, with overnight frosts possible inland.

This then takes us towards the turn of the month, with only just over 4 weeks of meteorological winter left....so what do we think those remaining weeks have in store?.

Well at present there seems no clear or easy route back to cold, with the persistent high pressure over Europe keeping winds in the SW. Certainly there are some interesting developments underway in the stratosphere that will probably lead to an SSW event at some point in Feb, but whether that comes early enough or perhaps more importantly targets our tiny bit of NW Europe remains to be seen.

So at this juncture we feel the chance of an SSW bringing a significant cold, wintry spells to most of the UK in Feb is around 20%, with an average month temperature wise currently (and for many sadly) being the form horse...but things can of course change and to be fair they probably will.