Coincall Market Update (Mar 10 - Mar 14)
This past week saw the crypto market navigate a complex mix of macro developments, persistent hacker-induced selling, and heightened volatility across both traditional and digital assets. Although Friday’s NFP initially hinted at further rate cuts down the line, renewed tariff concerns and extensive hacker liquidations briefly pushed BTC below $80k, keeping market sentiment cautious.
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Macro Pulse
1. Tariff & Inflation Jitters
- New U.S. tariffs on imports stoked concerns of a global economic slowdown.
- Inflation data was mixed: a softer-than-predicted CPI offered temporary optimism, only for the market to pivot back to risk-off as the week progressed.
2. President Trump’s “Transition” Talk
- Investors grew wary after the President acknowledged the possibility of a near-term recession, calling it necessary for his policy agenda.
- This sentiment fueled broader market caution, with equity indices posting substantial losses.
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Crypto Spotlight
1. Bybit Exploit Cash-Out
- Hackers allegedly dumped close to $300 million worth of stolen crypto, leading BTC and ETH to test significant support levels.
- The market braced for further downside if the thieves offload more of their holdings.
2. SEC’s Delayed ETF Decisions
- The SEC postponed rulings on several altcoin-focused ETFs until at least May 2025, dampening institutional enthusiasm and contributing to $876 million in outflows from crypto products (CoinShares data).
3. Major Flows & Volatility
- BTC futures and options volumes jumped, with Paradigm data suggesting a net sell of $46 million in BTC delta from Sunday to Monday.
- In ETH, traders bought $2 million net delta but trimmed vega exposure.
- Key trades included bulk put purchases and call spread sales, reflecting a defensive tilt.
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Market Reaction
- BTC & ETH:
- BTC briefly dipped under $80k before recovering toward $82k. Multiple put purchases and collar strategies appeared in derivatives markets as traders sought downside protection.
- ETH saw front-month IV surge above 100v, pointing to anxiety over near-term selling pressures, yet liquidity absorbed the hacker dumps without sparking a panic.
- Implied Volatility:
- Short-dated expiries jumped as BTC tested multi-week lows, but longer maturities remained relatively stable, suggesting potential optimism in the second half of the year.
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Looking Ahead
Traders remain on edge for additional data this week, especially the PPI release (Mar 16), which could reignite inflation worries. Meanwhile, the possibility of future U.S. policy shifts (e.g., deeper tariffs or White House crypto directives) keeps many participants on guard. With stolen crypto still out in the wild, any sudden hacker activity could ignite fresh volatility.
For now, the market appears inclined to stick to a defensive posture. While pockets of buying may emerge near the $80k mark for BTC, broader sentiment suggests we’re still waiting on a more decisive catalyst to break this standoff between rate-cut hopes and macro headwinds.
About Author
Chris Newhouse, aka @CryptoDeFiGuy, is a tutor of @coincall_global and a seasoned crypto trader turned director at Cumberland.