COVID-19 In retrospect.

COVID-19 in Retrospect

I wrote an article regarding COVID-19 sometime in March 2020.

I was frustrated with the pandemic.

I knew though of families within my circle of influence who had experienced COVID-19 and had lost loved ones.

Therefore, I thought that I was being overly emotional in the article and did not publish this paper.

It is though always interesting to read about something, later to evaluate whether you were correct or not in your conclusions.

Part of the article reads thus.

*COVID-19 information

I have evaluated *two written resources from the initial Chinese outbreak.

The reported age grouped mortality rate (on all cases) that was reported is:

+80 years old ???????????????????14.8% (confirmed 21%)

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????70-79 years old????????????????8.0%

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????60-69 years old????????????????3.6%

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????50-59 years old????????????????1.3%

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????40-49 years old????????????????0.4%

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????30-39 years old????????????????0.2%

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????20-29 Years old????????????????0.2%

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????10-19 years old????????????????0.2%

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????0-9 years old?????????????????????0.0%

?

The mortality rate initially reported in China was 2%.

The mortality rate estimate was re-adjusted by the W.H.O. (as of March 3, 2020) to that of 3.4%.

?It must be remembered each country will have a different mortality rate when considering age.?As can be noted from the above-mentioned figures, mortality becomes more of a reality as you get older.

?From 50 years of age?and above the situation moves from what (I believe) appears to be a normal flu condition to that of a pandemic.

?Different countries have different mortality rates, your typical European countries have older population where Germany and Italy's over 65 population are around 22 to 23%.

?This will generally result in a higher anticipated mortality. The mortality rate in Germany and Italy should be around 3.4%.

?African countries typically have a younger population distribution. Our +65 population sits at around 6% therefore our total anticipated mortality will be lower at round 1.23%.

?Note: Underlying conditions have not been considered.

The frightening fact is that with an earthly population of seven billion, (if we do not win the fight, if there is no intervention and with an 80% infection rate) earth will face a mortality rate of 112 (2%) to 190 (3.4%) million people (according to W.H.O figures) with COVID-19.

Today – 2022/02/03

Global declared mortality due to COVID 19 is 5.7 Million. (Over a two-year period)

It will be argued that this is a poor reflection of the actual mortality rate.

Do, we need to ask ourselves some questions?

Did the world win its fight against COVID-19?

Did we blow things out of proportion?

What can we say about our leadership?

What can be said about the Media?

How are we going to respond on the next occasion?

Is this “pandemic” over?

* The majority of information was found on the internet site "worldometer". The two documents were "Report of W.H.O. - China joint mission (Feb 28, 2020) & a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17 2020. Other information regarding population was obtained on Wikipedia