COCOA Market Update – October′22

I would love to share updates and information about the #cocoa market in October 2022 .

Lets start with PRODUCTION COUNTRIES updates on #cocoabeans since the 1st crop in October started :

• Ivory Coast

Cocoa arrivals at ports in the World’s top grower reached 295,000 tons by 30th October since the start of the season on the 1st October, down 21% from the same period last year. Even if it might seem a bad number, farmers said that the quality and quantity of this 2022/2023 crop would be good.

• Ghana

Ghana has raised the guaranteed Farm gate price paid to cocoa farmers of 12,800 cedis ($1,248.78) per tons for the main crop 2022/23 season, which will begin on 7th October, up from 10,560 cedis for the last two seasons. Despite the 21% increase, the price is lower than the 900 CFA francs ($1.36) per kilogram, set by its neighbor Ivory Coast. The expensive Farm gate price paid in Ivory Coast will increase the risk of cocoa being smuggled across the border to Ivory Coast to be sold at higher prices.

• Cameroon

Cameroon and Nigeria have submitted requests to join the Cote d'Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative, a joint body spearheading the interests of the two countries in the cocoa trade. The idea is that together with Cameroon and Nigeria, they would represent around 75% of the global cocoa production.

• Nigeria

The Cocoa Association of Nigeria lowered its cocoa production forecast for the 2022/2023 season due to adverse weather conditions. Cocoa output for the new season is now expected at 270,000 tons compared with the 275,000 tons in the previous season.

Demand Insight – World Cocoa Grinding 3Q22

Cocoa processing figures for the 3Q22 recorded better figures than the previous year, 950,276 vs 924,080. This increase is led principally by the good numbers in the region of Asia and Ivory Coast.

On the one hand, the good numbers in Asia and Ivory Coast, with an increase of 9.5% and 11.03% YoY respectively supports the theory that demand has not ceased as it was expected when the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out.

On the other hand, Europe, and especially Germany, has suffered with the dramatic rise in energy cost that contributed to the fall of Q3’22 grindings.

MARKET OVERVIEW

October finally brought the (temporary) break of the uptrend the market had been in since mid-July when the market rebounded from a low of ￡1,682. Almost three months later the market closed at ￡1,939, a difference of ￡257 in around 11 weeks, it seems that the market is still well supported and has not given up, despite the sideways movement seen during October.

Already in November the market seems to have re-entered the range of the upside channel, helped by the weakness of the pound, among other factors.

Cocoa Products Overview

October confirmed another increase in ratios of products as demand continues to be very active, Origin countries, especially Ivory Coast and Ghana, keep their intention to maintain their differentials at very strong levels.

• Liquor : Ratios have continued to increase well supported by a strong demand from industry.
• Butter: Strong demand especially in the spot position, which reflects the large difference in prices between the first and the second position. If demand stay strong, ratios will continue to increase.
• Solids (Cake/Powder): Power price continue to be well supported with an expensive cake price at origin.

Thanks to #nederland #moner team for their help and efforts in keeping us updated with #cocoa market news .

#cocoa #cocoabeans #cocoabutter #cocoamass #cocoaliquor #consulation #chocolate