The cobra effect - consequences of not thinking through

The Cobra Effect

This is a story of 1902 Delhi, a British colony at that time. The British were battling a cobra infestation. To solve the problem, they came up with a brilliant solution. Anyone turning up with a slain cobra would be monetarily rewarded.

Well, for the next two years, people kept coming with dead cobras and very happily took the bounty. The scheme was a resounding success. Well! Was it? Or at least, they assumed so, until they found out that the locals have started breeding the cobras. Why not? They discovered a new avenue of income.

Without a second thought, the British dropped the scheme. The locals, now with baskets full of cobras, had no other choice, but to release them in the wilderness. Now the cobra problem became four-fold what it initially started with.?What really went wrong here?

?What is there to learn?

We must avoid implementing a solution without fully thinking it through. Like for example, the management of one financial organization decided to incentivize percentage improvement in the velocity of teams. As a consequence, there was velocity inflation at various degrees, in almost all teams. While feature cycle time did not show improvement, velocity went up substantially in the teams. The management had to withdraw the incentive scheme. They ended up in a situation where the metrics were very unreliable.

One more such case is where the customer contract was drawn upon the velocity of delivery. Here, velocity was used to determine the amount of work done for the customer, and the invoices were sent accordingly. Oddly enough, velocity inflation was not the consequence in this case. Instead, the customer managers started negotiating parallelly on why certain user stories “needed” higher story points.

There are, at times, teams that come up with “practical” approaches to solve problems. Like, formula-based story pointing. Or, having a separate testing team that tests the increment in the subsequent sprint. The teams will vouch that these really work. However, all they end up causing is the cobra effect.

Once, an inappropriate solution is rolled out, it is extremely hard to roll back. And rolling back, should be done very carefully, or else the original problem will be back with a vengeance or a new problem might raise its hood. It is always preferred, to do it right the first time and no half measures.

In conclusion, the story of the Cobra Effect and its modern applications serve as a stark reminder of the pitfalls of quick-fix solutions and hasty decision-making. It highlights the importance of careful analysis and a comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes in any decision-making process, particularly when it comes to incentives and metrics.

The Cobra Effect, an unintended consequence of a seemingly clever solution, is not merely a tale from colonial times. It's a very real phenomenon in today's complex corporate environments. As we navigate the challenges of modern management and problem-solving, it's crucial to approach each problem with caution, thorough analysis, and foresight.

After all, it's not just about solving a problem but about crafting solutions that are sustainable, effective, and immune to the Cobra Effect. It's about creating systems that encourage genuine progress and discourage manipulative behaviours. Our goal should always be to ensure that our solutions not only address the problems they were designed to solve but also create lasting improvements that stand the test of time.