COASTAL LOW LYING AREAS IN ASIA AT INCREASED RISK WITH RISE OF SEA LEVELS

Latest report by an international panel of scientists has highlighted, it is that everyone live in this earth can do something to help the world to avoid or change the anticipated catastrophic climate change due to human activity. Therefore, we humans have created it and we, humans has to contribute towards the restoration of the environment for future generations. Message is very clear, it is not just governments or businesses but each and every individuals live in this earth has to pay their debt. People in our part of the world will be not aware of the danger zone that we are entering in to and majority of our people have no interest to understand the gravity of such global/national issues. They always believes that someone will do the needful to sort it and it is not me. Specially, we Sri Lankans has missed the bus in numerous occasions in development goals in the past. Similarly, in this global warming aspect also, we will miss the lifesaving opportunities, if we do not listen and activate the precautionary measures immediately. 

IPCC Report.

This alarming news was released by ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC) report which released few weeks ago in Incheon, South Korea. Experts emphasizes that, ‘Behavior change and demand side management can significantly reduce emissions’ and keep global warming to just 1.5 percent degree centigrade instead of 2 degree centigrade which is above pre-industrial levels. United Nations (UN) has been giving frequent warnings to all stakeholders of the world on ‘Global Warming’ has initiated and back this very important report which has taken approximately 3 years to complete. This gigantic task involved with 91 researchers from 40 nations in the first phase to identify in detail the 1.5 degree ‘C’ limit in terms of impact and what it would take to keep temperature rise at that level. Three years ago in 2015, Paris agreement called for halting the rise in temperatures to ‘well below 2 degree ‘C’ but to see the possibility of keeping it at 1.5 degree ‘C’. When concluding the Paris conference IPCC was requested to prepare a special report on global warming of 1.5 degree ‘C’ by adhering to the latest global science in strategic perspective. The report cites more than 6000 scientific references. Sri Lanka is not represented in the forum but statistics in our part of the world has been taken in to the consideration. In fact India is actively involved in the IPCC. It is a fact that entire globe and its’ people will going to experience this catastrophe and with the current snail pace activity will accelerate the increasing of the temperature beyond 1.5 degree. When scrutinizing the global information on the subject matter, it has revealed that, world leaders have been told that they must take greater action on the climate crisis, following the statistical research information was released by the ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We all have a role to play in order to save the planet and give a better climatic conditions to next generations. It is no drought that this catastrophe will affect every nation and every individual whether they are big or small, rich or poor. IPCC report has revealed that the safe limit will be to remain below 1.5 percent degree ‘C’ and in today’s context, it will be an immense challenge. Challenge begins with the attitude of the people, reluctance to understand the seriousness of the situation and when developing strategies/pathways to adopt counter measures & implementation.

IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE RISE TO + 1.5 DEGREE OF CENTIGRADE.

Humans – Slower rate of sea level rise will let small Islands and low-lying areas adapt. Flora – 8 percent of plants tipped to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range.

Fauna –

1.       Coral reefs decline by 70- 90 percent.

2.      6 percent of insects and 4 percent of vertebrates projected to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range.

3.      Annual catch from marine fisheries down by 15 million tones’

Geology –

1.      Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer once a century.

2.      Lower impact, on land, fresh water and coastal ecosystem

Economy – More opportunities in green economy

WHAT HAS TO BE DONE TO AVOID THE RISE OF TEMPERATURE?

1.      Global net human-caused CO2 emissions need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, and hit net zero by 2050.

2.      Large tracts of land have to be converted to growing trees

3.      Electricity from renewables like solar and wind power will have to jump from 24 percent to 50 percent.

4.      Ordinary Coal plants will have to be wound down or immediately shift to super critical coal plants

5.      Shift to electric vehicle.

Rise of sea levels are eminent.

We Sri Lanka belongs to South East Asia and so many tiny Islands where we live are at a high risk situation even though we do not feel it at this moment. People who lives in the coastal regions of Asia may have to forget about their luxury villas at the coastal belt (sea view luxury) and on the right extreme of that is the poorer people living in the vicinity for the purpose of their living (fishing community) too, have to be face the repercussions in big time due to rise of the sea level and coastal flooding.

Particularly, Asian region leaders has to initiate a joint programme (initiative) to save the valuable lives of the people in the region. It is known fact that Asia’s urban population is growing at unprecedented rates and it is 1.75 times faster than the global urban population. Considering these facts, it is sure that we will lose hundreds of millions of people’s homes. With the implementation of appropriate precautionary measures in advance will save human lives and their belongings to great extent. It was identified by the experts, that sea levels can be rise to 1 meter level, effecting coastal and low-lying areas in the region. It is very visible today with Indonesian islands, which are facing coastal flooding more frequently and it will accelerate in many folds. Coastal low lying areas in the Asia are at an increased risk with the rise of sea-levels. Experts have identified that nineteen of the twenty five cities which are most threatened by one meter rise of sea-level are in the Asia. This disastrous situation will have serious economic consequences direct to affected countries and world at large. Global flood losses are expected to increase by ten times of present towards 2050 according to the studies. 

Eventual Food Shortage.

Needless to explain that global economy is interconnected and moving like a spiral chain. These chain of activities in economic terms will get highly disturb when the region get affected in serious manner in whatever the form. In this context, climate change will definitely make huge rise of the food production cost in the region and food processing people will have major difficulties to maintain their respective status quo. Agriculture industry will have a major draw backs due to heavy drops in yield of respective crops. Just a straight forward example is that the production of rice. It was revealed that rice yields could decline by up to fifty percent in the years to come. Imagine the similar equations to rest of the crops that humans are consuming at present. Do not forget the fact that our life cycle depends on the entire spices living in the planet and missing, destroying, natural death due to climatic disaster will add fuel to fire on food crisis which could be anticipated due to the devastating condition. As a result of such situations, food shortages could increase in many folds and in the meantime, increase of malnutrition children in the region also increase in large numbers. 

Rest of the human needs

Basic needs of the human beings could be at a risk leading in to a social calamity in respective societies. Climate change will heavily disturb the entire ecosystem of the globe leading in to shortage of food, water, mass migration to urban cities, increase of diseases, air pollutions, heat waves and epidemics such as dengue & Malaria. Blue economy will have a major setback due to serious downfall of Fishing harvest and adverse effects on tourism due to marine ecosystem system facing a serious threat. 

IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE RISE TO + 2 DEG OF CENTIGRADE.

Humans – Set to rise;

1.      Exposure to wider risk to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security and growth.

2.      Numbers effected by water scarcity to double.

3.      10 million more people exposed to permanent inundation, several hundred million more to climate related risk and poverty.

4.      Malaria and dengue fever set to be more widespread.

5.      Issues of migration and lower social cohesion will rise. 

Flora.

1.      Smaller crop yields for corn, rice and wheat will go down. Twice as many corn crops will perish in tropics.

2.      16 percent of plants tipped to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range.

Fauna.

1.      Coral reefs, including Great Barrier Reef decline by 99 percent.

2.      More species will be extinct

3.      Polar bears and Seals are in danger

4.      18 percent of insects and 8 percent of vertebrates projected to lose over half their climatically determined geographic range

5.      Annual catch from marine fisheries down by 3 million tons or 50 percent

Geology.

1.      Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer once a decade

2.      13 percent of global land area set to undergo transformation of ecosystems from one type to another

3.      High-latitude tundra and boreal forest at risk

Economy.

1.      Loss of coastal resources reduce productivity of fisheries and aquaculture 2.      Countries in tropics and southern hemisphere subtropics set to see largest impact on economic growth 

WHAT HAS TO BE DONE TO AVOID THE RISE OF TEMPERATURE?

1.      More intensive land-use practices needed

2.      Need to restore depleted ecosystems

3.      Change towards less resource-intensive diets 

Is it feasible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

Decarburization of the Asian economies will be the fundamental principle of mitigating the impact of climate change. It will be a big challenge with highly politicize Asian economies, especially the developing nations to adhere to commitments of ‘Paris Agreement and IPCC recommendations. It is the fact that, underdeveloped and developing countries cannot afford to invest in highly sophisticated fully environmental friendly plants and machinery to fulfill their essential needs. Minimizing the air pollutions and the greenhouse gas emissions is the practical approach at this moment. When we look at Sri Lanka, government need to look at how to comply with possible approach without disturbing the day to day life of its population. We are heavily depended on coal power plant for uninterrupted electricity. It is high time that we elevate ourselves to super critical coal power which is far better option. As a region, we should agree on a macro level regional development strategies to mitigate climate change. Respective governments in the region, consciously adopt a policies to include climate change mitigation policies in to the main stream of their respective development goals. 

Way forward to face the climate change.

My humble suggestion is to give a wide publicity to ‘Paris Agreement and IPCC report in print, electronic and social media in simple language. People should be fully aware of the danger zone that we are entering in to and taking most suitable precautionary measures will only save their own lives and the future generations. Also, our part of the world no education on the subject of climate change and that void has to be filled up with immediate effect. School curricular must have a climate change as a special subject. Making children understand the gravity of climate change and growing up with right attitude will bring enormous positive approach to resolve or to minimize the anticipated catastrophe. No point of having an postmortem of wrong doings of human beings who has created the disaster due to ignorance, damaging environment, poor attention disbelief of protecting environment and many other things culminating to climate crisis. Ever rising temperature and rising sea levels cannot be taken lightly any more. Governments, policy makers, lobby groups and general public need to wake up and work together for the common goal of combating the global warming. Do not allow our own children to suffer in front of our own eyes because we need to ask from our selves ‘who’s at fault’? We can cheat anyone but not to our own heart. 

Walk the talk – Theory and practice & EARTH WATCHMAN programme.

Above facts are very stubborn and scaring because it is eventually life and death situations. Theory has done its part and given red notice to people who created it by some mean and given the probable solutions/recommendations as well. It is up to the people to take it or live it. Tree planting to combat global warming has become a fashion in Sri Lanka but following issues are to be address;

1.      How to measure the impact?

2.      Are we planting the right tree at right place?

3.      Who will be maintaining the trees?

4.      Do you aware that every tree planted need to be maintain for at least 5 years?

Considering all the available facts, after doing little research on, how the human mind works towards tree planting projects, likes & dislikes of the people, willing to accept, concepts and own the same, as if it belongs to them, expert advice from Forest & Agriculture departments, regarding the right kind of trees are the critical success factors to drive a project in this magnitude, which could really give a great benefit to climate change and keep the temperature below 1.5 percent degrees of centigrade, in order to give a greener globe to our future generations.

We have selected the most popular sport in Sri Lanka to fight against the global warming. International cricket council (ICC) cricket world cup is commencing in the month of June 2019 and exclusive broadcasting rights have been taken over by Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation (SLRC). We have join hands with SLRC to carry out a massive systematic tree planting campaign, co-inside with ICC cricket world cup. ICC has 106 cricket playing nations under their banner. Main formats of the game, Test cricket, 50 overs & 20 overs are played by the limited number of nations. However, all the cricketers of first class level to poor village guys, who are playing the game and cricket lovers has a moral duty to plant a tree to pay their debt to the respective nations and world at large.                                                                                                                                           Why you should do it?

Cricket bat and the wickets are made out of wood. How many trees have been use for manufacturing cricket bats, wickets and bails are unknown. Neither game of cricket nor the using of trees for the purpose will not stop and our call is not to stop the popular game. We need to use this ICC cricket world cup, as a vehicle to drive the message of climate change/global warming, deep in to the hearts of the cricket loving people and to drive the programme of ‘EARTH WATCHMAN’, playing to plant a greener globe.

We humbly invite all corporates, government institutes to join hands with EARTH WATCHMAN to perform a conscious work to counter climate change. Bottom line is that we need to keep the rising temperature below 1.5 degree centigrade, whether we like it or not. Oxygen air to breath, if you wish to live, food, water, safe shelter are the very basic needs of the human and if we do not pay attention to IPCC recommendation on climate change, above basic requirements will dry up in front of your own eyes. Let’s get together as a one team to execute the plan programme to keep our little kids smile on the face. EARTH WATCHMAN is for all folks of life, most popular sport, cricket is the vehicle to understand the gravity of the worthy cause.  All Sri Lankans, especially the past cricketers and present cricketers, we humbly urge you to come forward and assist/corporate to make this endeavor a great success. We want our small Island to set an example to the rest of the world and say ‘We did it’. You follow. SMALL COUNTRY BUT UNIQUE AND BIG IDEAS/CONCEPTS are with us.

Contact details - +94 777 702 804 - Nalin Attygalle.