A Clouded Horizon: Examining Bangladesh's Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) 2023 through Energy Transition Perspective

Introduction

Bangladesh, a nation brimming with ambition, unveiled its Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) in 2023, a roadmap intended to illuminate the path for its power sector until 2041. This ambitious plan promises to expand access to electricity, strengthen the reliability of power supply, and usher in an era of improved energy efficiency. However, on closer examination, though, there appears to be some scepticism about the plan's commitment to a "Just Transition"—a sustainable energy future that gives equal weight to social justice and the environment.

The Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MoPEMR) is leading the IEPMP, which lays out a plan for increasing generation capacity. The central principle of this plan is the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), which is in charge of producing and distributing electricity. To promote cooperation in the industry, the plan also invites private organisations to take part in the production and distribution of power.

The IEPMP 2023 holds the potential to serve as a guiding light for Bangladesh's energy sector development. However, its unwavering focus on fossil fuels casts a long shadow of doubt on its effectiveness in achieving a just transition. A fundamental revision is necessary – prioritizing renewable energy sources, addressing the social impact of the transition, and establishing clear benchmarks for achieving its goals. Only then can the IEPMP illuminate a path towards a truly sustainable and secure energy future for Bangladesh.

?Review of the Plan

The IEPMP focuses on three main objectives: extending electricity access to the most distant sections of the country, guaranteeing a consistent and dependable power supply, and encouraging energy efficiency throughout the whole system. Nevertheless, there is a significant cause for worry over the plan's steadfast emphasis on fossil fuels, namely coal, as the predominant source of energy production. Critics contend that Bangladesh's steadfast dedication to coal is in direct opposition to its promises to address climate change and puts the country's future energy security at risk. The IEPMP emphasizes three key goals:

1. Expanding Electricity Access:?Reaching unserved and underserved areas to ensure nationwide electricity coverage.
2. Ensuring Reliable Power Supply:?Upgrading infrastructure to minimize power outages and maintain grid stability.
3. Improving Energy Efficiency:?Promoting energy-saving practices and technologies to reduce overall energy demand.

The plan proposes achieving these goals by:

1. Increasing Generation Capacity:?Building new power plants to meet growing electricity demand.
2. Diversifying the Fuel Mix:?Reducing dependence on imported fuels and exploring alternative sources like native coal and clean coal technologies. However, the plan has not mentioned how they will implement the clean coal technology or from where the technology will be bought. There is an ambiguity in this plan
3. Modernizing Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure:?Upgrading grids to handle increased capacity and integrate renewable energy sources.

Implementation of the Plan

The Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MoPEMR) is in charge of executing the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP). The Bangladesh electricity Development Board (BPDB) is responsible for overseeing electricity production and transmission. Private sector involvement is actively promoted in both the production and delivery of electricity. The IEPMP presents a comprehensive and far-reaching plan, extending up to the year 2041. Although the intention is praiseworthy, the strategy is deficient in terms of clearly defined milestones and benchmarks. Without these milestones, it becomes difficult to measure progress and ensure that the plan is on course to achieve its stated objectives. Currently, the outcome of the IEPMP is yet undetermined. The excessive dependence on fossil fuels creates significant concerns over the plan's efficacy in advancing Bangladesh towards a sustainable and secure energy future.

Area of Focus

The IEPMP prioritizes immediate needs like expanding electricity access and improving grid reliability. However, critics argue it prioritizes these goals over long-term sustainability concerns like climate change.

Timeline

The IEPMP sets a 2041 target but lacks clear milestones and benchmarks for achieving specific goals within the timeframe. This lack of concrete steps makes it difficult to track progress and ensure accountability.

Analysis from an Energy Transition Perspective

Cross-Country Experience

Several countries, like Denmark and Germany, have successfully transitioned towards renewable energy sources like wind and solar power. These transitions have created new jobs in the green energy sector while phasing out dependence on fossil fuels. Importantly, these transitions have been accompanied by social support programs to minimize job losses and retraining programs to equip workers with the skills needed in the new green economy. These transitions have created new jobs in the green energy sector while phasing out dependence on fossil fuels. Importantly, these transitions have been accompanied by social support programs to minimize job losses and retraining programs to equip workers with the skills needed in the new green economy (Clean Energy Wire, 2023; IEA, 2023). Bangladesh can learn valuable lessons from these successful transitions and adopt a just transition approach that prioritizes both environmental and social well-being.

Suggestions for Improvement

For Bangladesh to navigate a just transition effectively, the IEPMP needs a significant course correction. Prioritizing renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is paramount. This shift can be steered through the implementation of well-designed policy incentives, the modernization of the national grid to seamlessly integrate renewable energy sources, and strategic investments in energy storage solutions. Furthermore, the plan must address the potential social consequences of transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly the displacement of workers currently employed in the sector. A "Just Transition" demands a commitment to retraining programs and support structures to ensure a smooth and equitable shift towards a sustainable energy future. The IEPMP needs a significant revision to prioritize renewable energy sources like solar and wind. This can be achieved through:

a)???? Policy Incentives:?Implementing feed-in tariffs and tax breaks to encourage investment in renewable energy projects.

b)???? Grid Modernization:?Upgrading the grid infrastructure to seamlessly integrate renewable energy sources that are inherently variable.

c)???? Energy Storage Solutions:?Investing in battery storage technologies to mitigate the variability of renewable energy sources and ensure a stable power supply.

Furthermore, the plan should incorporate a "just transition" approach that acknowledges the potential social impacts of shifting away from fossil fuels. This includes:

a)???? Social Impact Assessment:?Conducting a comprehensive assessment to identify communities and workers likely to be impacted by the transition.

b)???? Retraining and Support Programs:?Developing programs to retrain workers in the fossil fuel sector for jobs in the green energy industry.

c)???? Social Safety Nets:?Establishing social safety nets to support workers who might experience job losses during the transition.

Weakness of the Policy or the Plan

a)???? Overreliance on Fossil Fuels:?The plan's emphasis on coal contradicts Bangladesh's climate change commitments and future energy security needs. Additionally, dependence on imported fuels leaves the nation vulnerable to price fluctuations.

b)???? Limited Focus on Renewables:?The plan's targets for renewable energy are insufficient to achieve a sustainable energy transition. This raises concerns about Bangladesh's ability to meet its climate goals and achieve long-term energy independence.

c)???? Social Impact Concerns:?The plan lacks a clear strategy to address the potential social impacts of transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly job displacement in coal-dependent regions.

d)???? Lack of Clear Benchmarks:?Without clearly defined milestones and benchmarks, it's difficult to track progress and ensure the plan stays on track towards achieving its goals.

e)???? Lack of Transparency and Public Participation:?The IEPMP's development process lacked transparency and public participation & stakeholder engagement. A just transition necessitates engaging stakeholders, including affected communities and workers, in the planning process to ensure their concerns are addressed.

Criticism of The IEPMP 2023 from Civil Society and Energy Specialists

In light of widespread discussions to overcome the ongoing power crisis, Hasan Mehedi, chief executive at Coastal Livelihood and Environmental Action Network (CLEAN) and member secretary of Bangladesh Working Group on Ecology and Development (BWGED), speaks regarding the proposed Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP), and why it's a step in the wrong direction in terms of Bangladesh's renewable energy goals. Mr. Hasan Mehedi stated that The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) is currently formulating the Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) for Bangladesh with assistance from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica). With the ongoing power crisis caused by the dependency on fossil fuels, we must prioritise energy from renewables. The makers of this plan claim it to be a "long-term plan for affordable and stable fuel supply, and to promote low-carbon energy supply and demand systems," but in reality, it's a climate-conscious facade. Due to the lack of transparency, the stakeholders don't know much about it or understand how problematic it is. We, at CLEAN and BGWED, recently sent a policy brief to the state minister of power and the parliamentary standing committees that we are against the approval of this plan. We have not heard back from them, but this plan is a huge step backwards, and it must be halted. He also added that there are four main concerns about the IEPMP. First, no Bangladeshi experts are involved in it.

The Japanese experts overestimated the demand with a linear analysis, calculating it against the GDP. It is a misguided approach as the main consumers of power are the informal sectors of Bangladesh's economy. There has also been no consultation with different sides and sectors of energy users at the regional level. Of the installed capacity in the power sector, the plan proposed 30.7 percent to be fossil fuels (coal and LNG) and 32.8 percent to be the so-called Advanced Technology (liquid hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon capture and storage) by 2050. This will further ensure that Bangladesh remains fully dependent on other nations. Our energy self-sufficiency will be violated if we go through with this. And most importantly, the IEPMP completely contradicts the approved Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan (MCCP), which targets achieving 100 percent of energy from renewables by 2050. The prime minister echoed the target of 40 percent by 2041, during the UN Climate Conference (COP26) in December 2021. But the IEPMP claims to target only 17.1 percent renewables by 2050 – which is overtly unaligned with the MCCP. Moreover, The IEPMP 2023 indicated that it will use ATS (Advanced Technology Scenario) to mitigate coal-based emission pollution.

The Advanced Technology is what we call "Greenwashing." It uses liquid Hydrogen, Ammonia and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which, taken together, have not been proven to reduce carbon emissions. Developed nations, namely the US, Canada and the UK, rejected purchasing this unproven technology. We are still a Least Developed Country and we have to think about the affordability of power and energy. This technology will be three to four times more expensive than coal. We will also need a lot of electricity to produce Hydrogen itself, which will take Tk 269 per kg nowadays. So counterproductively, we will be extending the life of coal and fossil gas, and over time, it will cost an estimated $180 billion to import this technology by 2050, which is completely unrealistic.

Mr Shahriar Ahmed Chowdhury who?is the director of Centre for Energy Research at United International University (UIU) stated in policy criticism in the Daily Star that The IEPMP predicts that the public sector share in electricity generation will increase to 75 percent in 2041, and then decrease to 41 percent in 2050, from 51 percent currently. Meanwhile, the private sector share is expected to decrease to 16 percent in 2041 and 11 percent in 2050, from the current 49 percent. There is no mention of the other 48 percent. Plus, no reason is cited for this departure from the past decade that saw the private sector increasingly adding to the country's power capacity. It appears that the IEPMP has either underestimated or disregarded the considerable renewable energy potential within the country. Opting for solutions that are most likely to align with Bangladesh's current and foreseeable future needs is paramount, enabling the nation to work towards its sustainable development objectives. We should exercise caution in committing to technologies that lack a proven track record and could lead to uncertainty, especially given the technological advancements achieved to date.

Conclusion

The IEPMP 2023 has the potential to guide Bangladesh's energy sector development. However, its heavy focus on fossil fuels and limited attention to a just transition raises concerns about its effectiveness in achieving a sustainable and secure energy future. The plan needs a significant revision to prioritize renewable energy. To illuminate a truly just transition pathway, we must turn our gaze towards nations like Denmark and Germany. These countries have emerged as beacons of successful energy transitions, prioritizing wind and solar power as their primary sources of renewable energy. Their journeys offer valuable lessons – the creation of new green jobs to offset those lost in the fossil fuel sector, and the retraining of workers to equip them with the skills needed to thrive in the burgeoning renewable energy industry.

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References

?1.???? Bangladesh Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources. (2023). Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP) 2023 [PDF]. powerdivision.portal.gov.bd

?2. Denmark is moving convincingly on decarbonisation (2011). https://www.iea.org/news/denmark-is-moving-convincingly-on-decarbonisation

3. Germany on track to reaching national 2030 climate target but set to fail EU goal – env agency (2024).https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-track-reaching-national-2030-climate-target-set-fail-eu-goal-env-agency

4.???? Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). (2023). Draft Integrated Energy and Power Master Plan (IEPMP): Can It Address the Clean Energy Targets? [PDF]. cpd.org.bd

?5.???? Clean Energy Wire. (2023). https://www.cleanenergywire.org/