Clothesing of a Decade
Once upon a time, in a far away land lived a restless Emperor. He ruled over lands far and wide and had everything he every dreamed of, but for some reason always wanted more. One day, while roaming around his room in the royal palace, he looked in his closet and decided his wardrobe simply wasn't sufficient anymore. Immediately he summoned the top two tailors in the kingdom for an emergency consult. Upon arrival the tailors set down their chests of materials, then sat and listened intently as the Emperor laid out his thoughts. Of course he wanted to be looked at as a visionary and trendsetter, but more importantly he just wanted the wardrobe to be better than anything else out there.
The first tailor sprung into action, opened up his chest, and took out some of the finest fabrics in the kingdom. He then took the fabrics and showed different creative techniques which could mold them into all types of designs for any number of royal occasions. The second tailor watched this scene unfold in horror. He knew his materials weren't as high quality as the first tailor. There was no way he could match the creativity to boot. He had no choice but to sit back and stew that he simply was not going to be able to compete.
Upon completion of his presentation, the first tailor stepped back and confidently waited for the Emperor's compliments. To the shock of both artisans, the reality was that the Emperor simply wasn't very impressed. The clothes just weren't as perfect as his needs demanded.
The second tailor immediately read the situation. After a moment of thought he reached into his chest and started pulling out his ideas.
"Sire this is the brand new fabric I have been developing. I knew it would be perfect for you because it's simply better than everything else out there. It's versatile as you can rearrange it to suit any royal occasion. It's light so it won't weigh you down as you go about your duties. But best of all, it's exactly what you want because nobody else in the entire kingdom has it. You will be the first. Here, try it on."
Confused, the first tailor watched as the Emperor put on and then displayed the new clothes. He couldn't help but slip: "But your highness....you're naked...."
The second tailor shot him a glance then leaned over to the Emperor and whispered "This doesn't surprise me sire, only the truly wise can see this fabric at all. Honestly I never thought much of my colleague in the first place. I think you look amazing."
The Emperor didn't really know what to think. But if the fabric could only be seen by the truly wise, he couldn't risk letting the tailor know he couldn't see it at all. Besides, this was exactly what he wanted as it was an outfit nobody else in the entire kingdom possessed.
"I love it!" the Emperor exclaimed. He turned to the first tailor: "Do you have anything else to compete with this outfit?"
Incredulous, he couldn't help but reply: "I can't compete with something that simply doesn't exist."
Re-confirming the first tailor's ignorance, the Emperor had heard enough. The new wardrobe was decided.
The kingdom was utterly shocked and all a flutter when the Emperor proudly displayed his new clothes under full pomp and circumstance. They stood in silence as they individually pondered the fact the Emperor looked naked. But nobody had the courage to say anything. Besides, they heard an announcement ahead of time that only the truly wise could see the clothes. They certainly didn't want to appear ignorant to anyone else in the kingdom. The approval from the crowd started with a trickle, but soon erupted into a roar of approval. The other tailors in the kingdom were thrown at first. It was their profession, and they knew no such fabric existed. But as the subjects in the kingdom rushed into their shops asking for the new clothes, the demand was too palpable to resist. Who were they to turn down so much business when they were giving the subjects what they wanted?
Many in the kingdom also flocked to the first tailor's shop as well, searching for this amazing new creation. He kindly explained to his customers that the fabric didn't really exist at all. The Emperor and those who chose to emulate him were naked. And nothing they could say or do would change the facts of the matter. To his long term customers, these truths were reassuring and they stayed true to their normal wardrobes. But to many others, this only confirmed the first tailor was as unwise as they had heard. In turn, they simply decided to go somewhere else to get what they wanted.
As the months wore on, the kingdom rejoiced in the freedoms these new wardrobes created. It was now summer, and people were impressed how they got the best of both worlds in comfort. The clothes breathed easy, but allowed them to feel the warmth of the sun at the same time. The cost of clothes had also come down substantially as all the other tailors were competing to capture all of the easy business of the kingdom.
One day, from the door of his shop, the first tailor surveyed the scene of an entire kingdom "dressed" in the new fashion. After a few moments he smiled, shook his head, and headed back into his shop and packed up his materials. The subjects in this kingdom simply wanted what they wanted, and his principles wouldn't allow him to provide them a fairy tale solution. The tailor decided he needed to let them go and instead focus on a kingdom that valued his expertise.
On his way up the hill out of town, he turned for one last look at a kingdom living in its own reality. As he looked on a gust of wind rose up and hit him out of nowhere. Shuttering, he buttoned the top of his shirt and grasped the collar of his jacket, pulled it closed, then turned and hurried on his way. Winter was coming......
We didn't know it at the time, but at the close of the last decade we were only months removed from the bottom of the worst stock market route of our generation. Further, without a doubt, we were still very much reeling from the fallout of the great recession that caused it. It was truly a harrowing time, and there were a great many potential risks still there at the time. But I also remember how much potential in the future I saw (smart phone technology was the true standout to me as I recall). However, when looking around my industry what I saw was, well, survival. Advisors were still very much in "fear" mode, and the prevailing attitude was: "Give the client whatever they want, just keep them happy." It certainly was the path of least resistance and kept bringing in a paycheck. The problem was that, in many cases, giving the client what they "wanted" wasn't going to be the best thing for them long term. They were still predominantly operating out of their own perceived reality of fear themselves. And the mistakes these false perceptions would cause would be why they could never hope to prosper in the future. In fact, because of them they would almost certainly be left behind.
At the close of the last decade I made a decision that I needed to lay a solid foundation in the way I would work from then on. A foundation that would be rooted in the confidence of my own advice to set clients up for success. I could no longer give people what they wanted if I knew it wasn't what they needed. And I needed to be ready to walk away from clients that I perceived were harming their own self interests. Part of my job is making sure people are comfortable with the advice I give, but appeasement of a fairy tale solution was not going to create a successful clientele long term. No more trying to please Emperors who only "wanted" and had no intention of learning otherwise. No more competing with other tailors who only played the angles trying to survive. No more trying to appeal to a kingdom's subjects if they were only interested in following the herd. My advice was meant for people who wanted to be successful and wanted someone they trusted to guide them through the pitfalls that would inevitably come along the way. Attempt to move ahead or risk being left behind; the choice was always theirs. 10 years later, we close this decade in an unprecedented fashion. We close without a single month of economic retraction from start to finish. A lot of financial success was packed into the past decade. Yet in spite of it all, a lot of the kingdom was left far behind as their wardrobes of "want" in 2009 ultimately proved fleeting.
This may come as a complete shock, but I believe that the next decade could prove.........complicated. I do still see so much potential. From artificial intelligence to genomic breakthroughs to clean energy, the future is full of economic opportunities. The innovations I see are nothing short of astonishing. However, with brutal clarity, I also see a variety of challenges directly tied to this progress. The current kingdom is very much caught up in what they "want" and their own false perceptions of reality. And the combination is a very weak foundation for them to build on long term. Just like ten years ago, I see a correlation between those that embrace false realities and those that will be left behind by the very progress the future will bring. The very real possibility that the winter that awaits this kingdom could be among the greatest challenges we face as an economy before we close out the next ten years. Ultimately the setup will be the same as the last decade. Make smart decisions to help move ahead and embrace the future or risk being left behind; the choice will still always be theirs. I will continue to be there for people who desire to be successful and want someone they trust to help guide them through the pitfalls that will inevitably happen along the way.
Telling people what they need to hear, not what they want to hear is not always fun. It's hard to preach planning for winter when the summer sun feels great, insisting during pitch black that sometimes it's darkest right before dawn, or even that the reality they believe in could hold back the progress of their own futures. God knows I'm also human and am not always right about every piece of advice I give or decision I make. But the integrity that this foundation produced; produced specifically because I walked away from that kingdom, those tailors, and that Emperor ten years ago is more solid than I could have ever imagined. As I look to build upon that foundation of principles going forward, I know it wouldn't have been possible without all of you. Whether you have been with me for 10 years or 10 days, please allow me to close this decade by thanking you for valuing and trusting the guidance I aim to provide to make you successful long term, amidst a world that constantly tries to sell us all fairy tales.
I hope everyone has a Happy New Year and hope all is well.
-Trevor
Written over various dates in late December, approved for distribution December 31st.
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