Climate Policy Comparison: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going

By Andrea Adams, Rachel Skaldman 

December 8, 2020

Climate Change: Why We Should Care

Climate change affects us all.1 We should collectively care about climate change because it has direct consequences on human health including heat-related illness, cardiopulmonary illness, food-, water- & vector-borne disease, and mental health consequences and stress, and the impact of these health outcomes disproportionally affects vulnerable populations.1 While changes individual consumption patterns and energy use may have an incremental and additive effect on our ability to slow the change in climate due to human activity, such paradigms serve to redirect attention from corporate responsibility and lack acknowledgment of the important role of policy as a point of leverage to limit emissions at both the national and international level.2–7 The United States’ policy to combat climate change has been without a doubt inconsistent with change in administrations. In light of Biden’s electoral win, where have we been and what does the future hold for us?8

Where We’ve Been: The Scale of U.S. Impact

On an international level, 36.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide were emitted globally in 2020.9,10 In 2018, United States is second only to China (10.06 billion metric tons) in global carbon emissions, and emit 204% the rate of the third highest CO2 emissions perpetrator, India. The North American and Asia Pacific are leaders in global carbon dioxide emissions from deriving energy from fossil fuel sources such as “oil, natural gas, and coal.”10(p2) Although the United States only accounts for 4.22% of the global population (330,597,239 individuals in the United States ÷ 7,699,338,035 individuals globally), our nation is accountable for emitting 15% of global carbon emissions.9,11 In sum, the United States emits more than its fair share of carbon gas inequitably compared to our global neighbors.

 The peak of the United States’ carbon dioxide emissions from national private and commercial energy consumption came in 2007, with emissions over 6.003 billion metric tons of carbon.10 Since then, United States carbon dioxide emissions have dropped to 5.13 billion metric tons in 2019. The decline since 2007 has been explained by, first, in response to the 2008 economic recession during the Bush Administration, subsequent enrollment in the Paris Climate Agreement under the Obama, and economic decline under the Trump Administration.12,13 The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis proposes that there is an “inverted-U-shaped relationship between different pollutants and per capita income, i.e., environmental pressure increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases.” 14 However, others posit the decline in the United States carbon emission in 2008 was caused by the economic slowdown, increase in oil prices, the large-scale transition from coal to gas, as well as enhancements in solar and wind power.13,15

Legacy Obama Nationally Determined Contributions

Barack Obama exemplified efforts to negotiate international emissions through signing into act the Paris Climate Agreement on August 29th of 2016, with the United States being one amongst nearly 200 other countries.16 While the act entered into force in November of 2016, prior to the Paris talks, the New York Times and CBS News cited 75% of Americans perceiving the impact of global warming on the future and a majority of Americans were in favor of the U.S. entering an internal agreement to reduce carbon emissions based on polling, despite “partisan divide on climate policy.” 17–19 From a negotiation standpoint, the purpose of the Paris Climate Agreement was to “establish a framework for global climate action, including the mitigation of and adaption to climate change, support for developing nations, and the transparent reporting and strengthening of climate goals.”20

With the ability to leverage the collective strength of countries representing 40% of the global emissions contribution, the sentiment was to show an investment in the future of the health of the American people and the planet while acknowledging the inability to move the needle through one country’s actions alone.16,21 In fact, at the time of the Agreement, the United States and China made up the highest proportion of global emissions, and likely agreed upon restrictions in light of not only long time mutual benefit, but short term mutual loss of the competing economies.16 Interestingly, the signing of the Agreement was not perceived to be an end-all solution to climate change, but an interim step in the right direction.16

The United States’ commitment to climate change under the Obama administration was relatively simple. A five page document, called Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), indicated a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emission from 26-28% from 2005 levels by the year 2025 through two methods: a Clean Power Plan and regulation of the automotive fuel economy standards despite neither mechanisms’ specific mention in the intended NDC.22 In 2005, the US greenhouse gas emission levels were 6.13 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, indicating a 2025 goal of 4.41 billion metric tons.17,23 Despite GOP pushback in protecting the automotive and energy industries, polling of the American public revealed a preference for “regulating business activity more than taxing consumers.” 18

The Clean Power Plan was offered on August 3, 2015, by President Obama and the United States Environmental Protection Agency in order to reduce power plant carbon emissions on a state-by-state basis with the goal of creating actionable and achievable emissions standards. The proposed solution was calculated to reduce 3,600 premature deaths, 1,700 heart attacks, 90,000 asthma attacks, and 300,000 missed work or school days, although the timing of these benefits was not directly explained.24 The key pieces of the plan relied on implementing to lower waste fossil fuel operations while facilitating the growth of other low or no emission power sources such as wind and solar.24

Power plants are the United State’s main source of carbon pollution, constituting 46% of CO2 by sector; in turn, the Clean Power Plan sought to create a “reliab[le] and affordab[le]” means of transitioning to clean energy solutions, which is arguably the largest challenge.24 Part of the bipartisan appeal of the Plan language was to allow variation in the states' ability to roll out the actions to reduce pollution, despite allowing for fossil fuels to remain an integral part of the nation’s fuel economy.24 States would have autonomy over the transition to achieve emissions goals by regulating power plants by 2022 to 2029 based on measures of rate of emissions per hour or tons of CO2 emitted.24

Road transportation makes up 19% of CO2 emissions by sector.25 According to Jos Dings, T&E European Federation for Transport and Environment via PwC report, “CO2 emissions from transport alone have risen by 32% since 1990. There is no way to achieve overall emission targets without focusing on areas like transportation.”25 However, the automotive industry has historically lobbied against climate change policy efforts in light of the bottom line.25 With clear federal incentives to reduce carbon emissions through environmental regulation by signing on participation in the Paris Climate Agreement, automotive companies in the United States and globally had to strategize to invest in more environmentally-friendly technology “or risk falling behind.”26 As a result, the triple in cost of engine in electric energy vehicles due to capital-intensive technological advancements may be borne on to the shoulders of the American public through increased market price.26

Though Obama opportunistically sought executive order to effectively bypass the Senate to engage in the international agreement, a major critique of the solution is that it did not have the endurance to withstand changes in the administration. In addition to the skepticism of the United States’ ability to meet the stated emissions goal, Donald Trump ran his campaign in part on the ability to overturn the U.S. engagement and lift regulations on energy and automotive markets, despite the United States being “the world’s second-largest polluter.”19,21,27,28 Despite the symbolic “turning point,” the U.S. involvement in the Paris Climate Agreement or any meaningful global greenhouse emissions international negotiation to mediate climate change must have true staying power.21

2021 Environmental Policy: What to Expect

Using the framework of the Green New Deal, Biden stresses that the environment and economy are inextricably connected.29 His goal is 100% clean energy and net-zero emissions no later than 2050. 29 As such, he has pledged a $1.7 trillion dollar investment into clean energy over the next 10 years and plans to leverage funding through the private sector, state, and local investments for more than $5 trillion in total.29 He is leveraging current infrastructure to decrease methane pollution for new and existing oil and gas operations.29

With an emphasis on biodiversity, Biden has pledged to build biofuel plants and has committed to conserving 30% of America’s lands and waters by 2030 to protect biodiversity and slow extinction by banning drilling for oil and gas on public lands; establishing targeted programs to enhance reforestation; and develop renewables on federal lands.29 Recognizing the water crisis in communities like Flint, Michigan, Biden has said that the creation of safe, lead-free drinking water for all communities is a top priority. He pledges to create systems to monitor lead and other contaminants.29

Furthermore, Biden is committed to decreasing exhaust and emissions through his support for electric vehicles.29 In support of the clean air act, it is his goal that 100% of new sales for light and medium-duty vehicles will be for electric vehicles, and has launched plans to decrease exhaust given off by heavy-duty vehicles.29 He plans to use the federal government to drive towards 100% clean energy and zero-emissions vehicles. He has pledged to create 500,000 new public charging outlets by the end of 2030 to facilitate electric vehicle purchases.29 Furthermore, Biden promises a full electric vehicle tax credit to further incentivize consumers.29 Since aviation accounts for 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions, he plans to incentivize the creation of new sustainable fuels for aircraft producers.29

As a proponent of research and development, he has pledged a $400 billion investment over 10 years into clean energy research and innovation with plans to establish a new cross-agency: Advanced Research Projects Agency.29 Some of the goals of this initiative include grid-scale storage instead of lithium-ion batteries, refrigerants with no global warming potential, zero net energy buildings at zero net cost, and developing renewable energy sources to produce carbon-free hydrogen.29 Their ambitious goal to reduce carbon generation in the industrial sector extends to using carbon-neutral construction materials, decreasing carbon production when making steel, concrete, and other chemicals.29 There is a push to use agricultural technology to remove CO2 from the atmosphere by sequestering carbon dioxide from power plant exhausts underground.29 A big part of the research and development initiative focuses on developing carbon capture and sequestration technology to reduce carbon emissions. This will be backed with tax incentives for carbon capture, use, and storage.29

At the local level, he plans to reduce the carbon footprint in US building stock by 50% by 2035— through appliance electrification, efficiency, and on-site clean power generation.29 His proposal includes more efficient low-income housing and new efficiency standards for household appliances and equipment. 29 Often, low- and middle-income workers live far from their jobs leading to longer commutes, increased traffic, and higher emissions.29 To combat this problem, Biden proposes the development of affordable housing near public transit to cut commute times and decrease the carbon footprint.29 Of significance, Biden humanely recognizes that despite the push for green energy production, we have an obligation to workers and their families who are impacted by the energy transition.29 Coal miners, power plant workers, and their families should receive pensions and benefits as promised.29 For their work and sacrifice, Biden would like to increase congress payments into the black lung benefits program and expand efforts to help miners detect black lung disease.29

On the international level, Biden plans to re-enter the Paris Climate on his first day of the presidency.29 Furthermore, he wants to hold other countries accountable for meeting or failing to meet their Paris commitment with “Global Climate Change Report”.29 Taking things further, for the major carbon-emitting nations, Biden would like to engage their leaders in discussions to further limit greenhouse gas emissions and create a world-wide ban on Fossil Fuels.29 To “hold China accountable,” Biden vows to use commitment to the Paris climate agreement as a means to negotiate trade deals. Biden has agreed that the US may provide green debt relief for developing countries that make climate commitments such that there may be shared debt relief for countries that engage in climate-friendly development.29 For the Arctic Council, he has vowed to insist that climate change be a priority, decrease offshore drilling, and decrease black carbon and methane production. He will re-establish the US commitment to protect the arctic waters and prevent oil and gas leasing.29

In the Americas and the Caribbean, to combat the costs of the impending increase in droughts, floods, and rising sea levels, as a result of climate change, Biden vows to invest in clean energy and resilient and sustainable infrastructure in this region. He plans to create a more integrated energy grid from Mexico through Central America and Colombia.29

Finally, Biden recognizes that climate change ought to be a national security priority.29 He acknowledges that climate change has a far-reaching impact on American citizens. The secretary of defense will be responsible for reporting the impacts of climate change on defense posture, readiness, and infrastructure.29 Utilizing the findings of the 2019 report, Biden contends that the effects of climate change are a natural security issue with potential impacts on Department of Defense missions, operational plans, installations due to threats from drought, wildfires, and flooding.29 Furthermore, higher levels of instability in regions with an American military presence require US military supported disaster relief.29 Rising sea levels and hurricanes near military bases can damage infrastructure and put our troops at risk.29 Furthermore, droughts negatively impact military operations by reducing water supply, delaying training activities, and increasing the rate of heat-related illnesses among soldiers.29

Vice Presidential Support for President-Elect

While the details of Kamala Harris’s position regarding climate change are unclear, it is clear that she has historically supported legislative efforts towards mitigating climate change.30,31 She has been an advocate against fossil companies and created an environmental justice unit as San Francisco District Attorney.30,31 Focused on her home state of California, she has opposed rollbacks of regulations involving offshore drilling or automotive fuel efficiency standards and has been involved in lawsuits against fossil fuel companies on the grounds of misinformation for financial gains.30,31 She was quick to embrace the green new deal and worked closely with Representative Ocasio-Cortez on environmental legislation – stressing that environmental and climate legislation and regulations should be assessed based on their impacts on “frontline” communities since poor and minority communities are disproportionately affected by air and water pollution.30,31

As a democratic presidential candidate, Harris’s climate change plan, released in September 2019, pledged $10 trillion in investment over 10 years in clean energy.30,31 She too vowed to be 100% carbon neutral electricity by 2030.30,31 She had expressed her doubts regarding fracking but did not ban fracking entirely.30,31 Importantly, Harris stressed that Indigenous communities should consent to nuclear waste storage sites.30,31 Harris takes a strong position on the “climate pollution fee” which aims to reduce carbon emissions and to hold polluters accountable.30,31 The fees generated as a result of carbon polluters should be invested back into communities experiencing the most severe environmental hardship.30,31 At present, as the Vice President-Elect, it is possible to glean that Harris shares the vision and propositions of Joe Biden.30,31 At times her message redirects the audience to Joe Biden’s climate plan which helps to showcase the message of President-Elect and Vice President-Elect as a joint message from our Executive Branch of Government.30,31

What the Future Holds

Regardless of the path chosen by the Biden Administration, the plans outlined in this review highlight the important commitment that the United States must make to mitigate the devastating impact of climate change. While disproportionately affecting poor and minority communities, climate change has a profound impact on human health, safety, the urban and natural ecosystems, air and water quality, international relations, and the global economy.1 As a nation, it is time for both sides of the political spectrum to come together to limit greenhouse gas emissions, increase clean energy production, and conserve natural resources. We must not allow short-term economic priorities to supersede conservation efforts and the opportunity to build energy-efficient homes, methods of transportation, and infrastructure. Long-term economic prosperity, national security, and global political and social stability depend on an abundance of natural resources and safe living conditions without the threat of natural disasters.

References

1.       USGCRP. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; 2016:1-312. Accessed December 7, 2020. executive-summary.html

2.       Byskov MF. Climate change: focusing on how individuals can help is very convenient for corporations. The Conversation. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-focusing-on-how-individuals-can-help-is-very-convenient-for-corporations-108546

3.       crowdsourcing sustainability. CROWDSOURCING SUSTAINABILITY. Published March 8, 2018. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://crowdsourcingsustainability.org/climate-change-can-one-person-really-make-a-difference/

4.       Yes, Actually, Individual Responsibility Is Essential to Solving the Climate Crisis. Sierra Club. Published November 25, 2019. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis

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7.       INDIVIDUAL Solutions to Climate Change. The Years Project. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://theyearsproject.com/learn/news/individual-solutions-climate-change/

8.       Biden officially secures enough electors to become president. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-elections-electoral-college-3e0b852c3cfadf853b08aecbfc3569fa

9.       Each Country’s Share of CO2 Emissions | Union of Concerned Scientists. Accessed November 16, 2020. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions

10.     CO2 emissions United States 2019. Statista. Accessed November 16, 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-1999/

11.     Population Clock. Accessed November 16, 2020. https://www.census.gov/popclock/

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13.     Growth of global carbon emissions halved in 2008, according to Dutch analysis. the Guardian. Published June 25, 2009. Accessed November 17, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/jun/25/carbon-emissions

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16.     President Obama: The United States Formally Enters the Paris Agreement. whitehouse.gov. Published September 3, 2016. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/09/03/president-obama-united-states-formally-enters-paris-agreement

17.     Here’s what the US actually agreed to in the Paris climate deal - Business Insider. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-did-us-agree-to-paris-climate-deal-2017-5

18.     Russonello G. Two-Thirds of Americans Want U.S. to Join Climate Change Pact (Published 2015). The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/world/americas/us-climate-change-republicans-democrats.html. Published November 30, 2015. Accessed December 7, 2020.

19.     CNN NR Jacopo Prisco and Angela Dewan. Obama defends Paris climate accord as Trump mulls ditching it. CNN. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/09/politics/obama-climate-change-paris-agreement-italy/index.html

20.     December 12, Denchak 2018 Melissa. Paris Climate Agreement: Everything You Need to Know. NRDC. Accessed December 7, 2020. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/paris-climate-agreement-everything-you-need-know

21.     Milman O. Paris climate deal a “turning point” in global warming fight, Obama says. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/05/obama-paris-climate-deal-ratification. Published October 5, 2016. Accessed December 7, 2020.

22.     U.S.A. First NDC Submission.pdf. Accessed December 8, 2020. https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf

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24.     US EPA O. FACT SHEET: Overview of the Clean Power Plan. Accessed December 8, 2020. fact-sheet-overview-clean-power-plan.html

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26.     Global Car Industry Must Shift to Low Carbon to Survive - CDP | UNFCCC. Accessed December 8, 2020. https://unfccc.int/news/global-car-industry-must-shift-to-low-carbon-to-survive-cdp

27.     Milman O. US emissions set to miss 2025 target in Paris climate change deal, research finds. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/sep/26/us-climate-change-emissions-miss-2025-target-research. Published September 26, 2016. Accessed December 7, 2020.

28.     Greenblatt JB, Wei M. Assessment of the climate commitments and additional mitigation policies of the United States. Nat Clim Change. 2016;6(12):1090-1093. doi:10.1038/nclimate3125

29.     Plan for Climate Change and Environmental Justice | Joe Biden. Accessed December 8, 2020. https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/

30.     Hasemyer D. Kamala Harris on Climate Change: Where the Candidate Stands. Inside Climate News. Published August 3, 2019. Accessed December 8, 2020. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03082019/kamala-harris-climate-change-global-warming-election-2020-candidate-profile/

31.     Lavelle M. On Climate, Kamala Harris Has a Record and Profile for Action. Inside Climate News. Published August 12, 2020. Accessed December 8, 2020. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12082020/kamala-harris-joe-biden-election-2020-climate-change/