Climate Migration in America: Environmental and Economic Considerations

Climate migration is reshaping the residential landscape of the United States. As floods, fires and other environmental threats intensify, the search for safer and more prosperous places to live will become an ever more pressing challenge.

Climate migration is not a simple cause-and-effect process but results from a dynamic interplay of environmental and economic factors. Are relocation decisions solely driven by the desire to escape climate hazards or do economic factors play an equally significant role? How do climate-related migration patterns differ across various economic groups, and what does this mean for the future of housing?

These critical questions drive AlphaGeo’s mission to leverage our geospatial data and research capabilities to uncover emergent patterns and guide resilient investing.

By examining historic trends, AlphaGeo provides insights into how past flood events have shaped current population distributions and settlement patterns. In recent decades, floods have been a key driver of population shifts, with people moving away from high-risk areas to safer zones. Map #1 below illustrates the historic impact of floods on population growth.

Propensity score matching was employed to mitigate the effects of potential endogeneity — factors that may influence the relationship between flood risk and population change — by simulating conditions comparable to a control-treatment framework. This approach allowed for a more unbiased and precise analysis of the historical effects of flooding on population growth.

On a national scale, population growth is clearly visible in non-flooded areas, highlighting the constraining effects of flooding. In fact, climate abandonment is becoming more pronounced within some of the most populous regions of the counties or states. Approximately 47% of flood-prone areas show no population growth.

The relationship between flood exposure and population shifts is complex, shaped by climate risks, economic parameters, and community resilience. Decisions to relocate — and the opportunity to do so — are influenced by a household’s financial situation as well as the policies, conditions, and affordability of the destination. People with varying income levels assess environmental risks and economic benefits differently, leading to significant variations in migration patterns.

Interestingly, we have also observed an influx into high climate risk areas often driven by economic growth opportunities. To better understand these trends, we have developed a targeted economic strategy to analyze migration patterns across high and low-risk areas in various states, focusing on the influence of income and economic opportunities.

Using economic clustering and propensity score matching, we analyze how climate migration unfolds across multiple economic classes and various states. The analysis was conducted at a granular H3_08 (hexagonal geospatial indexing system) resolution to capture spatial variability typically observable only at localized levels. This approach highlights micro decision-making processes where individuals may weigh flood risks against economic, social, and logistical factors — patterns that may not be visible at larger scales. The findings are then averaged at the state level to provide a broader narrative while preserving local insights.

Three economic strata — lower, middle, and upper — were created based on key features such as median income, median home valuation, and employment rate. The results reveal notable differences across states. For example, in states such as Florida and in the Midwest, lower economic strata show slower population growth in flood-prone areas compared to non-flooded regions, indicating that flood risks have a constraining effect on migration for economically vulnerable groups. By contrast, in the upper economic strata, population growth tends to be higher in flood-prone areas. This indicates that sufficiently wealthy people are more willing to relocate to economically prosperous regions despite the associated flood risks. Risky areas within well-off economic strata may experience growth due to significant pull factors such as better job opportunities, higher wages, better infrastructure, or resilience-building investments that mitigate the perceived impact of environmental hazards.

These findings highlight a dual narrative: while lower-income groups prioritize safety and affordability, higher-income groups are often drawn to the economic benefits of thriving regions even if they are located in high-risk areas.

Maine and Mississippi are two states that reveal consistent yet contrasting migration trends shaped by flood risks and economic opportunities. In Mississippi, population growth is higher in non-risky areas across all economic strata, with the most pronounced disparity among upper economic groups, as wealthier populations are better positioned to avoid risky areas and relocate to safer regions.

In contrast, Maine shows the opposite pattern, where population growth in risky areas surpasses that in non-risky areas across all economic groups. This indicates that risky regions in Maine may offer compelling economic or cultural advantages that outweigh concerns about flood risks.

These contrasting trends underscore regional differences in how environmental hazards and economic factors influence migration. While Mississippi demonstrates a clear preference for safer locations, Maine highlights the pull of opportunities that may override environmental concerns. These patterns raise pressing questions: Are these migrations driven by informed awareness of flood risks and their consequences, or are economic priorities taking precedence?

The map below highlights regions characterized by high economic status and low climate risk, making them potential migration destinations. Through our comprehensive research and analysis, we identified the most suitable locations for migration by factoring in climate hazard risks and key economic considerations like affordability and employment opportunities. By evaluating available resources and assessing risk levels, we pinpoint ideal locations that strike a balance between safety and opportunity, helping individuals and communities make informed relocation decisions.

To summarize, climate migration is driven by survival, economic opportunity, and resilience, with notable variations across regions and economic groups. Lower-income groups prioritize safety and affordability, while higher-income groups often move to wealthier, high-risk areas seeking economic gain despite long-term environmental concerns. Locally, people relocate within counties to safer zones but stay close to economic hubs. Wealthy, flood-prone metro areas continue to grow due to infrastructure investments and resilience.

Identifying locations that balance affordability, opportunity, and resilience is the key to a national strategy that balances climate and economic factors. AlphaGeo contributes to this objective through products such as our Industrial Renaissance Tracker (IRT) that correlates the emerging geographies of greenfield corporate investment to their climate risk and resilience profiles. We will also expand our research into climate migration to offer predictive simulations at the regional and national levels.

Please contact us to discuss how AlphaGeo can support your needs at [email protected]. Interested in trialing our product? Register to create a trial account.