??The Climate Log - Edition #7 ??

18th October - 24th October 2024

??? TOP PICKS

??? Ahead of COP29, UN Climate Secretary Stresses Need for Increased Climate Finance

?? India’s $1 Trillion Path to Green Energy

?? Bharat Urban Megabus Mission: A ?1.75 Lakh Crore Push for Green Transport

??? Delhi’s Air Crisis: Deteriorating air, Supreme Court’s Intervention and Artificial Rains

?? 2024 Set to Break Temperature Records as Hottest Year Yet?

?? GLOBAL PULSE

Ahead of COP29, UN Climate Secretary Stresses Need for Increased Climate Finance:? Speaking at a virtual event, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell emphasized the urgent need to significantly increase climate finance as the world approaches COP29 in Baku. He highlighted that over a trillion dollars were invested in climate action globally last year, but stressed that this amount must grow, step up, and scale up to meet the escalating demands of climate change. Stiell called for a new international climate finance goal that addresses the needs of developing countries and ensures that all communities are protected. He also underscored the importance of leveraging private finance and ensuring that pledged funds are delivered effectively.?

COP16 - Biodiversity Conservation Underfunded by Developed Nations:? According to a new analysis by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), most developed nations are paying less than 50% of their fair share towards biodiversity conservation. In 2022, these countries collectively contributed less than $11 billion, despite the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) setting a target of $20 billion annually by 2025. ODI calculated each country’s fair share based on this historical responsibility and only Norway, Sweden, and Germany met their fair share contributions in 2022. Countries like the UK, Italy, and Canada contributed less than 40% of their fair share, with Japan being the worst performer, falling short by $2.4 billion. The GBF aims to mobilize at least $200 billion per year for biodiversity conservation by 2030, with developed countries expected to increase their contributions progressively.

Global Warming Projections - 3.1°C Increase Looms Amidst Inadequate Climate Efforts: On October 24th, 2024, the UN released its ‘Emissions Gap Report - 2024’ warning that the world is on track to warm by 3.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century if current climate policies remain unchanged. This projection significantly exceeds the targets set by the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It highlighted that the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, with a 1.3% rise last year and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will require substantial global investments, estimated between $900 billion to $2.1 trillion annually. It also suggested that there is a 70% chance that global emissions will decline this year if the growth of clean technologies continues. Find the report here.

Beijing Advocates for a Collective Global Green Energy Transition Efforts, Criticizes Trade Barriers: On October 23rd, 2024, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson at the World Science and Technology Development Forum held in Beijing emphasized the need of global cooperation and innovation in addressing advancements in AI and combating climate change. The forum concluded with a call to action for countries to leverage AI and other emerging technologies to achieve sustainable development goals and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

??SECTORAL INSIGHTS

?POWER & ENERGY

Balancing Green Energy Transition amidst Growing Coal Needs: The International Energy Agency's (IEA) 2024 World Energy Outlook report predicts India’s energy demand will rise by 35% by 2035, with electricity generation capacity nearly tripling to 1,400 GW. While India is pushing for renewable energy, coal will still play a major role, with 60 GW of coal-fired capacity expected to be added by 2030. Coal will meet 40% of industrial energy needs in 2023, rising to 50% by 2035. The report also highlights rapid growth in electric vehicle adoption and a surge in air conditioner usage, which will drive up electricity demand. Globally, the IEA projects solar power will quadruple by 2030, becoming the largest electricity source by 2033. While renewable energy growth will be 2.7 times higher by 2030, it falls short of COP28's tripling target. Energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to peak in 2025, but the world is only on track to reduce them by 4% by 2030, likely leading to a 2.4°C temperature rise. Electric vehicles will displace 6 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, but coal, oil, and gas demand are expected to peak within a few years.

India’s $1 Trillion Path to Green Energy: A study by the International Forum for Environment, Science, and Technology (iFOREST) estimates that India will need over $1 trillion (?84 lakh crore) over the next 30 years to transition away from coal. Coal currently meets about 55% of India’s energy needs, with coal-fired plants generating over 70% of the country’s electricity. The projected costs include closing coal mines, phasing out 237.2 GW of coal power, repurposing land, and supporting around 6 million workers dependent on coal. Around 52% of the costs relate to green energy investments, such as building and upgrading plants and the electricity grid, while the other 48% cover economic diversification and worker support. The study focuses on coal-dependent districts like Korba and Bokaro but excludes the costs of establishing new green energy infrastructure, which will also run into trillions.

India Launches Pilot Projects Under the Green Hydrogen Mission for Steel Production: The Indian government has approved three pilot projects under the National Green Hydrogen Mission to integrate hydrogen energy into steel production. These projects aim to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using green hydrogen in the steel industry, which is a significant step towards reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable practices. The government has allocated Rs. 347 crore for these projects, which are expected to be commissioned within the next three years. Launched on January 4, 2023, with a budget of Rs. 19,744 crore through FY 2029-30, the National Green Hydrogen Mission seeks to make India self-reliant in energy, reduce carbon emissions, decrease dependence on fossil fuel imports, and establish India as a leader in green hydrogen technology and market development.?

??E-MOBILITY

Bharat Urban Megabus Mission: A ?1.75 Lakh Crore Push for Green Transport: The Indian government will launch the Bharat Urban Megabus Mission, a five-year initiative to introduce 100,000 electric buses across 65 major cities by 2025. With a ?1.75 lakh crore budget, the mission aims to enhance urban mobility, reduce pollution, and boost public health and economic growth. It includes infrastructure development for bus stops, terminals, and depots, alongside creating 5,000 kilometers of walking and cycling-friendly streets to promote non-motorized trips. The target is to increase public transport's share to 60% of motorized trips by 2030 and 80% by 2036. Funding of ?80,000 crore is allocated for bus operations and ?45,000 crore for infrastructure. The mission also supports cycling with cycle tracks and rental services, building on the earlier PM eBus Sewa initiative.

Electric Vehicle Transition to Transform Global Economy, Says IMF: The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report has underscored that the global shift to electric vehicles (EVs) will have a transformative impact on investment, production, trade, and employment. EVs are expected to significantly reduce transportation emissions, which remain high; in 2022, they accounted for 36% of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., 21% in the EU, and 8% in China. Regionally, China has emerged as a leader in EV production and exports, driven by strong state support, while the European Union may see a 0.3% drop in GDP due to slower EV adoption and higher manufacturing costs. Governments in the U.S. and EU are implementing subsidies and expanding charging infrastructure to help bridge the cost gap between EVs and internal combustion vehicles. The transition also brings shifts in trade dynamics, with traditional car-manufacturing countries likely losing market share to nations importing EVs. Meanwhile, competition is intensifying, especially as companies like China’s BYD lead investments in battery technology to produce more affordable and advanced EVs.

How India-China Cooperation Could Boost Indian EV Industry: The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit could be pivotal for Indian electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers. Their discussions on strengthening trade, particularly in renewable energy and electric mobility, highlight potential collaboration in technology and innovation. Closer ties with China, a leader in battery technology, could give India access to advanced components like lithium-ion batteries, reducing costs and stabilizing supply chains. This cooperation may lead to beneficial policies, such as reduced tariffs or technology transfers, helping India boost its EV production and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

??? AIR QUALITY?

Delhi’s Air Crisis: Deteriorating air, Supreme Court’s Intervention and Artificial Rains: In the early hours of October 24th, 2024, the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) published data on AQI (363) categorizing Delhi’s air quality to the “very poor” category. The primary contributors to this decline include vehicular emissions, road dust, construction activities, and biomass burning.

On October 23rd, 2024, Delhi’s Environment Minister, Gopal Rai, urged the central government to convene a meeting to approve an artificial rain plan aimed at combating the city’s severe air pollution. The proposal involves cloud seeding to induce rainfall, which can help settle pollutants and improve air quality. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to address the persistent air quality issues in Delhi, which have been exacerbated by factors such as vehicular emissions, construction dust, and stubble burning in neighboring states. The minister emphasized the urgency of implementing this plan to provide immediate relief to residents suffering from the health impacts of poor air quality. On the same day, the Supreme Court of India on the issue made the following statement -? “These are not the matters only of implementing the existing laws; these are the matters of blatant violation of fundamental rights ... the governments will have to address ... how they are going to protect the right of citizens to live with dignity,” the court said. Recognizing the severity of the issue, the Apex court issued directions to the Centre and the governments of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan to submit compliance reports.?

?? MATERIALS?

Steel Ministry Advocates Safeguard Duty to Protect Domestic Producers: India’s steel ministry is considering the implementation of a temporary tax, known as a “safeguard duty,” to curb the rising imports of cheaper steel, particularly from China. This measure aims to protect domestic steelmakers who are struggling with the influx of low-cost imports that have been affecting local prices and profitability. The safeguard duty is seen as a quicker and more effective solution compared to anti-dumping investigations, which can take one to two years to complete. The decision comes as India, the world’s second-largest crude steel producer, has become a net importer of steel, with imports from China reaching a seven-year high during April-August 2024. The steel ministry believes that imposing this duty will help stabilize the market and support Indian steel producers like JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India. Additionally, the ministry plans to tweak quality standards to further restrict Chinese steel imports. However, it has ruled out raising basic import or customs duties, as these would not affect imports from countries like Japan and South Korea due to existing free trade agreements. The ministry also rejected a proposal to curb exports of low-grade iron ore, citing sufficient domestic stocks.?

??? CLIMATE RISKS, ECOLOGY, ENVIRONMENT AND PEOPLE

Climate Trends Study - Rising Temperatures Intensify India’s Monsoon Variability: A Climate Trends study shows that climate change has intensified weather extremes during India's 2024 monsoon season. Of 729 districts, 340 saw normal rainfall, 158 had excess, and 48 experienced large excess, while 178 faced inadequate rain, including 11 with significant deficits. The season recorded the most heavy rainfall events in five years, with June seeing the second-highest instances of very heavy rainfall, followed closely by July and August. Changes are linked to global warming, El Ni?o, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which have intensified high-intensity, short-duration rainfall and prolonged monsoon systems. Rising variability is leading to longer dry spells and more intense rain, emphasizing the need for urgent adaptation strategies to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems across India’s varied geography.

2024 Set to Break Temperature Records as Hottest Year Yet?: NASA suggests that 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record, driven by human-induced climate change and natural factors like El Ni?o. According to NASA’s Chief Climate Scientist, Dr. Gavin Schmidt, while September 2024 was the second-warmest September recorded, the year is expected to set a new global temperature record, with temperatures over 2.1°C above pre-industrial levels. Though El Ni?o ended in May, global temperatures remain elevated, also influenced by the sun’s solar maximum. Dr. Schmidt stresses that the long-term warming trend is largely due to human activities, especially greenhouse gas emissions. The IEA warns that 2024 could surpass the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement, highlighting the need for urgent climate action.

Mining Surge Fuels Massive Deforestation in Global South: On October 24th, 2024, the World Resources Institute came out with an analysis suggesting that between years 2001-2020, mining for metals, minerals, and coal has led to widespread deforestation, particularly in tropical primary rainforests. This has resulted in the loss of nearly 1.4 million hectares of trees, releasing 36 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. The mining activities have also displaced Indigenous and local communities, degraded the environment, and intensified climate change effects. Indonesia and Brazil are among the countries most affected by mining-related deforestation. Read the full report here.?

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