The Climate Crisis - IPCC 6th Assessment Summary

Introduction

I really wish that I able to write an article that was going to make everyone have a great day. That was going to leave you feeling positive and wonderful about the world and lead you into a fantastic week.?

But this is an article on the climate crisis. About where we are now, where we are heading towards, where we need to get to, how we need to get there. Then at the end of this article, hopefully you make the decisions for yourselves, about what you can do, and how you can have your impact on the climate crisis.

So moving on to the science, onto the facts and some very hard truths. Everything that I write from this point forward comes from the Intergovernmental panel on climate change, climate news reports and a little of my own opinion provided in italics. The IPCC produced three reports very recently that assess all of the science and all of the literature that is out there and these reports are used to help guide policy. By setting out the science as clear as day. If you'd like to learn more about the IPCC: https://www.ipcc.ch/

The Science

So where are we now in terms of the current state of the climate. Let’s start with fact number one, that is it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.

Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. Each of the last four decades have been successfully warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850.?

Currently we sit at a range between 1 to 1.2° higher than we were in 1850. And for reference natural drivers, such as volcanoes, only change global surface temperature by between -0.1° C to +0.1° C. It is all human influence.?

In 2019 atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least the last 2 million years and concentrations of methane and nitrous oxides were higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years. When global warming has happened at various times in the past two million years, it has taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 degrees. The predicted rate of warming for the next century is at least 20 times faster. Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50 year period over the last 2000 years.

Human induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate systems in every region across the globe. Evident in observed changes within extremes such as heat waves precipitation and droughts and it is virtually certain that hot extremes have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since 1950s while the cold extremes have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that human induced climate change is the main driver of these changes.

Some recent hot extremes observed over the past decade would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system.

These extreme events have happened whilst we’re only at 1 to 1.2° of warming. And we know we’re going to get warmer. Even in the best scenario going forward where we’re trying to limit global warming to 1.5° by the end of the century, we’re still gonna overshoot that before bringing the temperature back down.?- Let’s look at some of the disasters and events that have occurred already at 1.2° and just think for a moment that this is gonna get worse, much worse, before it gets any better.?

Australia 2020, over 3 billion native animals were killed or displaced by the wildfires that occurred. An area the size of the UK, of forest was destroyed. And events like these are going to get more severe and happen more frequently. But how we approach this next decade going forward will determine how much more severe and how much more frequent these events will occur.

In 2018 where Cape Town was set to hit day zero, a day where the city would literally run out of water because they’d been a three-year long drought. In the country and in Cape Town to reach the pinnacle where this day zero was so so close, that people were queueing up the streets to try and get their allowance of 50 L of water per day. Day zero hasn’t gone away since 2018; it's merely been delayed. Since 2018 the droughts haven’t just stopped, they are still very much there for those in South Africa. But just a couple of weeks ago climate change fuelled heavy rainfall during a series of storms that absolutely destroyed Southern Africa. The region was hit by three cyclones and two tropical storms in six weeks. In total more than 1 million people were affected by this extreme rainfall and the floods within the region, with over 230 reported deaths.

We are putting ourselves in situations where we are flipping between extreme weather and we as a global society cannot deal with it. And it is only going to get worse.

But as I’ve said, how much worse it’s going to get is incredibly dependent on how we act in this near-term period. The IPCC modeled various warming scenarios. Under every scenario, global surface temperature will continue to increase until the middle of this century. Global warming of 1.5 and 2° will be exceeded during the 21st-century unless deep deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.?

Under the modelled scenarios, many changes in climate systems become larger in direct relation to the increase in global warming. They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and, in some regions, agricultural and ecological droughts; an increase in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones; and reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost. It is virtually certain that the land will continue to warm more than the ocean surface and it is virtually certain that the arctic will continue to warm more than the global surface temperature with high confidence above two times the rate of global warming. According to the WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes in the past 50 years, there have been more than 11 000 reported global climate disasters, with just over 2 million deaths and US$ 3.64 trillion in losses.

It is imperative that you know that with every additional increment of global warming, changes in extremes continue to be larger. For example, every additional .5° of global warming causes clearly discernible increases in intensity and frequency of hot extremes including heat waves, heavy precipitation as well as agricultural and ecological droughts. There will be an increasing occurrence in some extreme events unprecedented in the observational record with additional global warming even at 1.5°. And if we look at this next 50 year period, if we get to limit warming to 1.5° we’re looking at these extreme heat events 8 1/2 times more likely to occur, when compared to a climate without human influence.? At 2° across a 50 year period, it’s almost 15 times more likely to occur, and over 3° these events are more than 40 times more likely to occur.? And for the record we are on track to exceed 3°

In march this year, the Concordia station, high on the Antarctic Plateau, hit a record temperature more than 40 C warmer than seasonal norms. Last June, in Siberia, the arctic circle reached 48C during a heat wave. 48C. In the arctic circle. That’s not right! This resulted in wildfires which were stronger than the fires in Greece, Turkey, Italy, the United States, and Canada combined.It is also resulting in the thawing of permafrost, allowing ancient methane which has been trapped in limestone to be released into the atmosphere. And why is this such an issue? Because methane is 28 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 100 year period in terms of global warming.

Now I’m not sure about you, but I really don’t want to think that the Arctic is reaching 50° every summer just like it did last year, because the Arctic is not supposed to be 50° it’s supposed to be cold and the more frequent it reaches these extremely hot temperatures this perpetuating cycle of permafrost melting, methane being released only then further increases the likelihood of more global warming and more climate disasters.

And this pattern which is seen with extreme heat, can be applied to heavy precipitation and agricultural ecological droughts. As it gets hotter, the less we limit global warming, the more likely the intensity and frequency of these extreme catastrophic events will occur.?

Now unfortunately as well, many ecological changes due to past and what will be future greenhouse gas emissions, are irreversible, for centuries to millennia, especially changes to the ocean ice sheets and global sea levels.

Past greenhouse gas emissions, since the 1750s have committed global oceans to future warming for the rest of the 21st-century. So no matter what, the oceans will be getting warmer.

Based on multiple lines of evidence upper ocean stratification (warming), ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will continue to increase in the 21st-century, with rates ranging from double to 8 times greater than what has been previously seen, and the rate of increase in trauma to the oceans is completely dependent on our future emissions. With the changes within the ocean being irreversible on century to millennial timescales.

This means that marine ecosystems will die out. Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has lost more than half of its coral since 1995 due to warm oceans and ocean acidification, with the greatest rate of this occurring between 2016 and 2017, and really that rate is not decreasing.

Now it’s sad that many of us won’t be able to fly out to Australia and scuba-dive and see all the pretty coloured corals, but what’s probably more sad is the fact that without coral the smallest fish can’t survive which means the large fish can’t survive so on and so forth, and so you end up with just this graveyard -esque habitat which once used to be full of colour and full of life is just now this dead ecosystem and it’s our fault.?

The great barrier reef stretches over 2300 km and is a protected heritage site. It’s believed that if we reach our target of 1.5° C, 90% of the great barrier reef will be wiped out. So under the best scenario predicted by the IPCC we still have the potential to lose 90% of our coral.

Now, what’s gonna happen if we don’t limit it to 1.5 and we continue on our track to exceed 3°? What do you think is gonna happen to marine life? - All life??

You know I don’t need to be an expert modeller to get a picture of what’s going to happen in my head and neither do you, but it’s things like this where we know what’s happening now, with the wildfires, with the drought with the coral bleaching, we know it’s going get worse even limited to 1.5° but can you just imagine that if we don’t change and if we stay on course to exceed 3° what the world would look like. And this is why I am so genuinely deeply to the core of my being terrified about what is coming.

Close

Humans have caused climate change but in order to limit the catastrophic events which can occur we must limit our global warming to 1.5°. This is the target of which the IPCC state that we must hit in order to prevent a truly global crisis however we are not on this pathway, our pathway is currently leading to exceed 3°.

In order for us to hit this model pathway of 1.5° C by the end of the century, we need immediate action. We need projected emissions to peak by at the very latest 2025. We need this rapid and deep GHG emissions reductions throughout 2030, 2040, and 2050 and without a strengthening of our current policies that we have set by our governments all around the world, emissions are still going to rise leading to a medium global warming of 3.2° by the end of the century.

And for reference, the projected CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure, exceed the total CO2 emissions in pathways that limit warming to 1.5. And that’s only the fossil fuel industry.?

But, 1.5 must be our limit. We must achieve our deep and rapid reductions in emissions. We must achieve Net Zero emissions.?

Now, where do you all come into play??

You talk. You discuss. You bring the thought of the climate crisis into your minds every single day. Challenge your favourite companies who haven’t yet begun their sustainability journey to get on board. Challenge those who are promoting sustainability for marketing gain without the information backing it.

Net Zero is this incredible thing which is achievable for every single organisation, with the only exception being fossil fuel producers. It has a host of other benefits that can be seen by the business that aren’t directly related to the climate, including improved employee engagement, increased shareholder price, and even financial gain on the investment.?

And talking about this on the daily, with everyone around you, will lead to action.?

And aside from talking, the key thing you can do to help the climate crisis, is to reduce. Reduce your fossil fuel consumption, make a switch to the green energy supplier, utilise public transport when you can. Reduce the amount of meat that you eat. Save it for a meal where you can really appreciate it, and when it’s fajita night, try using tofu instead. Purchase quality not quantity. Purchase products from companies who do prioritise their sustainability.?

Sure, On your own, these small actions won’t save the climate crisis. But if every single one of you has climate on their mind. As many people possible doing these actions will make a significant difference. And when you all start talking more, and encouraging your friends and family to do the same, this is where real, true climate impact will happen.?

So I’ll leave you with this.?

We are already seeing devastating effects through human induced climate change. And we’re only at 1 - 1.2 C global warming. With our current policies in place we are projected to reach over 3 C global warming, where we will see unprecedented climate catastrophes. We must limit global warming to 1.5 C. We must reach peak global emissions by 2025. We must see deep and rapid reductions in emissions and we must reach Net Zero by 2050 at the absolute latest.?

But we can do it. We can achieve this. But it is a global effort and it is going to take every single one of us to play a part. So get out there, start talking and create action.?