As Climate Change Worsens, Nations of All Types are Finally Stepping Up to the Plate

Article first published on www.energyandclimatenews.org

On November 9th, the world received news of two unfortunate climate milestones. First, the World Meteorological Association reported that in 2015, the average global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere exceeded 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since human measurements began. The current CO2 concentration represents a 43% increase over pre-industrial levels of roughly 280 ppm, and a 14% increase over 350 ppm — what some deem as the highest concentration at which we can maintain “climate safety.” 

Several hours later, the Climatic Research Unit at Britain’s University of East Anglia and the U.K. Met Office announced that average global temperatures throughout the first 9 months of 2015 were 1.02?C above the historic average. This means that the world is now more than halfway to reaching the 2?C warming level, the threshold at which scientists warn human society will face irreparable damage. Stephen Belcher, the director of the Met Office, said of the milestone, “This is the first time we’re set to reach the 1°C marker and it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory.”

 Along with these frightening reminders that climate change continues to worsen, a World Bank report, published on November 10th, reminded us who is most threatened by these worsening conditions – the world’s poor. The report, entitled, “Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty,” concludedthat crop failure, natural disasters, waterborne diseases and other impacts of climate change will cause 100 million people to fall into poverty by the year 2030.

 Stéphane Hallegatte, a senior economist with the World Bank’s Climate Change Group and co-author of the report, said, “Climate change is an additional threat to our objective of ending poverty. Poor people are already very vulnerable to climate-related shocks, and these climate-related shocks already keep them in poverty. Climate change will make a lot of these shocks more frequent and more intense, and this creates a threat.” With less than one month until 195 nations are set to gather in Paris to finalize a highly anticipated international climate agreement, the countries most susceptible to climate-related shocks continue to speak out.

 On November 11th, the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF), a collection of 43 nations brought together by their shared vulnerability to a warming planet, released a statement demanding that warming be limited to 1.5?C, rather than the current goal of 2?C. A press release from the CVFclaims that 106 countries, more than half of the nations participating in the negotiations, have put their support behind the 1.5?C goal. However, with the news of average global temperatures officially passing 1?C in 2015, we must unfortunately question whether a 1.5?C goal is merely a political statement or an actually feasible goal?

 Regardless of what warming limit the Paris deal ultimately aims for, momentum towards the negotiations continues to grow. On November 10th, Saudi Arabia became the 158th nation to submit their climate action plan to the UN in preparation for the negotiations. While some have criticized the plan for being too vague, the fact that Saudi Arabia — a nation that is home to 16% of the world’s oil reserves (second only to Venezuela), and that earns 80% of all budget revenues through the sale of petroleum — set any goal acknowledging the need to decarbonize the global economy, is tremendously significant.

 To further emphasize the significance of Saudi Arabia’s climate action plan, one must consider all the actions they’ve taken in the past to prevent global collaboration on climate change. Climate Home reports that in 2009, Saudi Arabian negotiators purposefully undermined climate science to prevent the development of an international deal; in 2013, Saudi leaders fought, unsuccessfully, to remove any mention of climate change from the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals; and as recently as April 2015, the Saudi government refused to agree to mitigate HFC emissions (an extremely potent greenhouse gas) at any point over the next 100 years.

In the past, Christiana Figueres, chair of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, has said of the Saudis, “[they] are sitting on a vast reserve of very cheap oil. Can you blame them for trying to protect that resource and that income for as long as they can? I don’t blame them. It’s very understandable.” 

However, with the submission of their climate action plan this week, it is clear that the tides have begun to change for the large middle eastern state. Not only have they submitted a climate action plan, but they have launched an entire PR campaign in support of the Paris negotiations, featuring a website counting down the days till the conference begins. One reason for the Saudi’s change of heart might be the recent publishing of a study in Nature Climate Change, which projects that temperature increase in the Persian Gulf will make the area entirely inhospitable for human life by 2100.

Or perhaps the Saudis caught an early glimpse at the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2015 World Energy Outlook, released on November 10th, which painted a pretty picture for the future of global clean energy. Among the highlights, the IEA reported that renewable energy accounted for roughly half of all new installed power in 2014, and that renewables are now second only to coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation. By 2040 the IEA projects that renewables will provide 13% more electricity than coal, and will be supported by cumulative global investments of $7.4 trillion.

If not that, maybe the Saudis are just trying to find a way to outcompete the US, which has recently overtaken the oil empire as the world’s number one producer of petroleum. If that’s the case, Saudi Arabia will need to act fast. On November 5th, NextGen Climate, the organization led by billionaire climate activist, Tom Steyer, released a report in collaboration with ICF International, which found that if the US lowers emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2050, it could add nearly 2 million clean energy jobs, and grow its GDP by $290 million, a 0.9% increase over current projections.

One particular US clean energy industry that showed tremendous promise this week is offshore wind. In Europe, there are already 2,488installed offshore wind turbines, but in the US not a single one has been installed. However, that may soon change. This week, 344,000 acres off the coast of New Jersey were auctioned to wind developers; DONG Energy, the largest offshore wind developer in Europe,pitched a 1,000 MW wind farm off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard; and a Seattle-based company proposed a 1,000 MW offshore project in Northern CA. These events all come in addition to the first US offshore wind farm breaking ground this summer off the coast of Rhode Island.

In the end, it does not matter what reason caused the Saudis to take climate change seriously. The only thing that does matter is that as CO2 concentrations, and global temperatures continue to rise to unprecedented levels, nations of all characteristics, big and small, rich and poor, oil-dependant and non oil-dependent, and so on, are finally stepping up to the plate. All we can hope for in Paris is that they don’t strike out.