Climate Change as a Security Risk
Disruptive Impacts on European Union’s Defence-Related Critical Energy Infrastructure and the Escalation of Internal Conflicts?
Abstract?
This essay explores the nexus of climate change, international security, and defence-related Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI) within the European Union (EU) against the backdrop of an unstable multipolar context. Focusing on climate-induced security, the study draws connections between the identified threats to international stability and security and the impacts of climate change on CEI, military installations, and capabilities. By using environmental studies and climate impact research, the findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive governance strategies. The research identifies options for strengthening climate resilience, fostering multinational collaboration, avoiding internal conflicts escalation, and aligning with the EU's goals of climate neutrality by 2050, contributing to the ongoing energy transition.?
Introduction??
Climate change, emerging as a critical security risk, demands comprehensive global policies, being recognized as a 'threat multiplier', due to its ability to intensify conflicts, challenging global governance. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) argues that traditional military interventions are insufficient against climate-induced security risks, emphasizing the need for a global governance strategy with effective climate policies. Urgent international cooperation, proactive climate action, and adaptive strategies are crucial to contain conflicts, develop compensation mechanisms, and stabilize the global economy. However, the effectiveness of this process is directly impacted by climate change itself, heightening the urgency.?
The IPCC warns that unabated climate change threatens international security, with global impacts projected from 2025–2040 if mitigation efforts fail. The EU, recognizing climate change's critical effects on security, developed the Climate Change and Defence Roadmap, the first EU action plan addressing the links between defence and climate change, according to the "Impacts of Climate Change on Defence-Related Critical Energy Infrastructure" study that specifically explores climate change impacts on the EU's defence sector, which emphasizes the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure (CEI) and aligns sustainability goals with the European Green Deal.?
As highlighted by the IPCC, the effects of climate change are accelerating, and the EU, particularly Western and Central Europe, faces increased challenges. The escalating vulnerability of the region's CEI to climate-related hazards underscores the need for a proactive approach to ensure energy security and defence capabilities. Therefore, climate change increasingly poses a threat to EU security, making it imperative to understand and address its impacts on military installations, CEI, and operational capabilities. This text provides insights and recommendations for addressing the intricate challenges posed by climate change within the defence sector.?
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Climate Change as a Threat to Defence-Related Critical Energy Infrastructure??
Climate change poses a significant threat to Defence-Related Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI), impacting military operations. Gaps in climate risk management, such as unidentified risks, inadequate integration into defence planning, and the lack of a comprehensive EU strategy for energy and climate in defence, worsen the threat. Addressing this issue requires the modernization of EU energy systems, fostering civilian-military cooperation, and tackling potential security threats from foreign-owned CEI as existing challenges are amplified by limited coordination, sparse technology implementation, and a lack of quantitative studies.?
Climate change exacerbates storm and flood disasters, particularly in vulnerable coastal zones like the east coasts of India and China. Thus, urgent strategies are critical for Defence-Related Critical Energy Infrastructure in densely populated areas, ensuring resilience amid evolving climate risks. In the context of EU security and defence, climate change presents a multifaceted challenge in which military installations, assets, and supplies are susceptible to damage, impacting operational capabilities. An unplanned Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) may incur higher costs, while geopolitical landscape evolves due to climate change, introducing potential tensions, disputes, and economic disruptions from changing shipping routes, highlighting the need for effective climate risk management.?
Climate policy itself carries security risks, impacting economies reliant on fuel exports or set to benefit from global warming. Transitions can reshape supply chains, job markets, and geopolitics, exacerbating disputes over land, raw materials, and technology. The intersection of climate change and energy introduces challenges for armed forces, requiring capabilities aligned with a transitioning civilian energy system and increased support requests in civilian operations. The potential impacts of climate change on military installations, equipment, and personnel range from malfunctions and increased MRO to disrupted missions and secondary hazards triggered by natural disasters. Critical infrastructure disruptions, such as electricity, gas, and water supply systems, significantly impair operational effectiveness. Addressing these challenges necessitates collaboration with critical infrastructure operators and regulators, considering the complex interdependency of energy systems, making an integrated approach key to enhance resilience against climate change impacts.?
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Climate Change and Its Impact on Energy Infrastructure?
As climate change threatens global energy production and distribution, exerting significant pressure on critical infrastructure, the rising temperatures escalate energy demand and challenge existing systems, while extreme weather events strain production and distribution networks. For instance, coastal energy installations, especially in densely populated areas like the east coasts of India and China, face operational failures, environmental hazards, and security threats, as highlighted in the Conflict Constellation, "Climate-induced Increase in Storm and Flood Disasters". Meanwhile, sea level rise further jeopardizes naval bases, impacting capabilities and global security and melting glaciers introduce complexity and potential conflicts over essential resources.?
The changes in resource availability intensifies competition, complicating collaborative efforts since resource scarcity directly threatens defence capabilities, necessitating a strategic reassessment of global defence postures. Unequal climate impacts raise equity concerns, fostering conflicts, which is why addressing these challenges through comprehensive strategies is vital for global stability, defence capabilities, and international security mitigation.?
An example of the intersection between climate change and energy infrastructure challenges occurred during the winter storm of February 2021 in Texas, USA. The storm disrupted natural gas, electricity, water supply, and transportation for days, impacting military installations. The US Air Force faced operational challenges and economic losses, highlighting the need for comprehensive measures. The lessons included the inadequacy of relying solely on markets for CEI resilience, the need for coordinated oversight in weatherizing energy systems, a granular approach to demand-response and rolling outages, increased flexibility in energy systems, stakeholder involvement in scenario building for resilience planning, and awareness of the impact of gas export curtailment on importing countries, such as EU Member States.?
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Disruptive Impacts on Global Security: A Call for Comprehensive Strategies?
Addressing climate change's disruptive impacts on global security demands a strategic, multidimensional approach from national to EU levels. Collaboration across sectors is imperative, emphasizing climate integration into defence planning. The “Defence-Related CEI” report recommended concrete measures for EU defence decision-makers, advocating proactive responses to climate challenges.?
A pivotal recommendation is an EU Defence Strategy on Climate Change, ensuring a unified response across Member States. The establishment of an EU Multi-stakeholder Forum for defence, energy, and climate aims to foster collaboration and resilience. A tailored Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI) Strategic Framework addresses vulnerabilities and enhances preparedness, emphasizing coordination between civilian and military entities during climate disasters, while regular reviews of risk management plans identify gaps in integrating climate hazards into defence planning and guidelines for assessing climate risk, coupled with integration into military planning, procurement, and research, significantly enhance preparedness. Modernizing infrastructure, especially CEI, based on site-specific climate risks, is imperative.?
To support ongoing efforts, a permanent EU program for Research and Development on climate change and defence, along with an EU-led Competence Centre, provides continuous support to Ministries of Defence. These initiatives inform policy decisions and enhance the EU's ability to adapt to disruptive climate impacts, contributing to global security.?
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Acknowledgment of climate change as a security concern is widespread, with EU Member States, EDA, the EU, and NATO recognizing its implications. The global commitments, such as the Joint Statement on Climate Change and the Armed Forces underscore the intersection of climate change and security while showing that EU Member States are defining energy strategies for armed forces, emphasizing resilience and sustainability. Proactive steps, including circular economy principles, recycling projects, and sustainability-focused funding, exemplify efforts. However, a more robust integration of climate risk management into infrastructure policies is needed to bolster EU MoDs' (Ministers of Defence) resilience.?
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Mitigating Climate-Induced Security Risks: A Call to Action???
Rising global temperatures pose a growing threat to defence infrastructure, particularly naval bases, necessitating adaptive strategies against sea-level rise and increased storm and flood disasters. The World Federation on Global Development and Environment recommends recognizing these impacts as threats to international security and urges the UN Security Council to adapt its mandate, accordingly, invoking the "responsibility to protect" principle. Integrating financing for crisis prevention, development cooperation, and military spending is required for bolstering resilience, with a call for a critical review of security spending and restructuring military budgets to prioritize preventive measures within development cooperation.?
Aligning security policies with climate change challenges enables nations to fortify the resilience of their defence infrastructure, contributing to global stability. Robust international cooperation, spearheaded by the EU and Germany, is decisive for diplomatic initiatives tackling global climate security risks and preventing conflicts related to resource scarcity. The EU should champion sustainable mitigation policies, set ambitious reduction targets, implement energy policy reforms, and advocate for innovative mitigation strategies. Comprehensive international cooperation must extend to development assistance, supporting vulnerable countries in adaptation measures.?
The intertwining of strategies for strengthening defence infrastructure resilience, advocating for international cooperation, and championing sustainable policies emerges as a comprehensive approach for global security. Recent EU strategies and directives, such as the Energy Union Strategy, Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, Clean Energy for All, RepowerEU Plan, Fit for 55 Package, European Critical Infrastructure Directive, Environmental Impact Assessment Directive, EU Civil Protection Mechanism, and regulations on "Energy Supply Security and Emergency Response" and the "Seveso-III Directive (UK-EU)", establish a comprehensive framework encompassing energy, climate action, and critical infrastructure resilience. These initiatives fiercely aim to mitigate climate risks, enhance energy security, and safeguard critical infrastructure, contributing to broader sustainability and resilience goals.?
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International Cooperation and Diplomacy in Addressing Climate-Induced Security Risks?
In the face of escalating global climate security risks, international collaboration is compelling to contain climate-induced conflicts. Diplomatic initiatives, compensation mechanisms, and economic stabilization play pivotal roles. Establishing a fair multilateral order is paramount for fostering cooperation, with Germany leading within the EU. A forward-looking common foreign and security policy becomes paramount amid geopolitical shifts caused by climate change and proactive societal involvement is requisite to tackle the global challenge of climate change.?
In the realm of defence, comprehensive actions across EU Ministries of Defence (MoDs) are vital, requiring coordination during Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI) failures. Challenges persist, including a lack of control over civilian-owned CEI, reliance on limited energy sources, and inadequate identification of mission-critical loads. Integrating climate considerations into military planning is limited, exposing EU MoDs to energy security threats. Governance issues compound challenges, with an absence of an integrated EU strategy for energy and climate in defence. Multi-stakeholder engagement is essential, necessitating structured civilian-military cooperation. Research and development efforts in the defence sector require attention, as sparse implementation hinders structural changes. A recommended two-pronged approach focusing on adaptation and mitigation is indispensable, emphasizing comprehensive and integrated strategies to ensure a resilient and sustainable future.?
Sustainable Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Global Imperative?
The World Federation on Global Development and Environment (WBGU) stresses the UN's significant role in addressing environmentally induced conflicts, urging enhanced coordination, and proposing elevating the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to a specialized agency. WBGU advocates for international co-financing of adaptation measures in developing countries, emphasizing boosting Official Development Assistance (ODA) to 0.7% of gross national income for equitable responsibility distribution and a comprehensive strategy under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is deemed necessary, specifically targeting adaptation in developing and newly industrializing nations.?
Taking an integrated approach, WBGU calls for expanding microfinancing institutions and instruments, including microinsurance, to supplement international development cooperation against climate-induced disasters. Proposing the establishment of an international environmental migration fund linked to the "polluter pays" principle, WBGU considers country-specific emissions and GDP indicators through the International Dialogue on Migration for cooperation.?
In the European context, climate change has been recognized as a threat multiplier since 2008. The EU, evident in the groundbreaking EU's Climate Change and Defence Roadmap (EEAS, 2020), significantly increased its inclusion of climate change in security and defence policy. Aligned with broader EU policies like the European Green Deal and European Climate Law, the roadmap aims to transition EU Ministries of Defence to climate neutrality and enhance defence energy resilience. The Strategic Compass for Security and Defence, published in March 2022, sets ambitious goals for resilience, climate neutrality, and enhanced support capabilities during crises.??
EU Member States committed to developing national strategies for armed forces' climate change preparedness by end-2023, aligning with the EU's Climate Change and Defence Roadmap. These underscore the seriousness of sustainable policies to mitigate climate change, ensuring a harmonious and resilient global future.?
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Conclusion on the Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Future for EU Defence??
In conclusion, addressing security threats from climate change requires immediate, robust responses, with a key focus on the impact on defence-related energy infrastructure, especially considering the 2°C threshold. Proactive climate protection policies are essential to mitigate emissions and prevent global economic destabilization amid complex challenges such as increased migration, water and food crises, storms, and floods while global unity is necessary for effective crisis management, institution strengthening, and resource mobilization.?
The proposed EU Defence Strategy, Multi-stakeholder Forum, Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI) framework, and coordinated response mechanisms underscore the cruciality of integrating climate considerations into military planning, investment, and infrastructure for enhanced resilience, the EU-led Competence Centre supports innovation and decision-making in climate change mitigation, failure to pursue robust climate protection policies could lead to conflicts and global destabilization. Outlined EU strategies proactively address climate risks, align the defence sector with EU targets for energy and climate neutrality by 2050, and emphasize operational measures, capability planning, and governance efforts, displaying the necessity of decisive actions to make EU defence climate-resilient and sustainable, acknowledging challenges and underscoring the potential for the defence sector to contribute significantly to countering global warming. Delayed action increases the risk of military capability loss, higher costs, and severe consequences for EU security, making the armed forces' proactive involvement critical for a secure and sustainable future.?
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