Climate change screamed in our faces yesterday – but you may not have noticed

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The reality of climate change made itself known in deafening fashion yesterday, but many of us may be only faintly aware of it as the world watches two brutal wars unfold and the US absorbs another devastating mass shooting. A Category 5 hurricane roared ashore in Mexico after strengthening with such frightening rapidity that it gave those in its way little warning. Today, we're spotlighting this enormous symptom of climate change to make sure the bigger implications don't fall off our radars.

EXPLOSIVE STRENGTH

• Hurricane Otis hit near the popular tourist city of Acapulco on Mexico’s Pacific coast yesterday. Tropical storms usually take days to turn into powerful hurricanes, but Otis did it in 12 hours before going on to make landfall.
• Forecasters have rarely seen a storm strengthen as fast as Otis did. To meet the definition of what scientists consider “rapid intensification,” a storm’s wind speed has to increase at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Otis’ winds increased 115 mph in 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center described Otis as “explosively” intensifying.
• Only one other East Pacific storm has strengthened more in such a short time, and it wasn’t by much. 2015’s Hurricane Patricia increased wind speeds by 120 mph in 24 hours. But unlike Otis, Patricia weakened to Category 4 before it made landfall in a sparsely populated area of Mexico’s Jalisco state.

UNDER THE RADAR

• Rapid intensification has been historically hard to predict, and satellite data and hurricane models severely underestimated Otis' intensity and how strong it would become. The National Hurricane Center used satellites to estimate the intensity, a common but in this case flawed approach. It wasn't until aircraft flew into the storm Tuesday afternoon and measured it that forecasters realized Otis "was about 20 to 30 mph stronger" than expected, NHC Director Micheal Brennan tells CNN.
• The combo of being underestimated and rapidly intensifying made Otis a "worst-case scenario," Brennan says, pointing to the people in the storm's path who suddenly faced a situation that "is very different from what they may initially plan for."
• Aerial images of Acapulco show the devastation caused by Otis, with high-rises torn apart and large swathes of the city covered by feet of water.

UNPRECEDENTED IN MEXICO

• Otis is the strongest storm on record to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast, and authorities are still assessing the hurricane’s impact .
• “In all of Acapulco there is not a standing [electric] pole,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said today. The blackouts in power and communications – even for emergency crews on the ground – mean information is coming slowly, but more than two dozen deaths were already reported as of this newsletter.

BIG PICTURE: “JUST CONFIRMING WHAT WE EXPECTED”

• Scientists say Otis’ rapid intensification is a symptom of human-caused climate change. More than 90% of warming around the globe over the past 50 years has taken place in the oceans, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In addition, an El Ni?o is growing in the Pacific this year, driving ocean temperatures even higher.
• Otis “took full advantage of a warm patch of ocean” that was roughly 88°F,? says Brian McNoldy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami. That’s more than enough to fuel a monster storm.
• Otis’ rapid strengthening would have been remarkable even if the hurricane had only stayed out at sea, and it’s “unfortunate it happened right before making landfall,” McNoldy says.
• From Pacific to Atlantic: Rapid intensification isn’t limited to the Pacific Ocean. A 2019 study found that between the 1980s and early 2000s, Atlantic hurricanes showed a “highly unusual” increase in rapid intensification – a trend the report said could only be explained by human-caused climate change. A study published last week found Atlantic hurricanes might be twice as likely to strengthen from Cat 1 to Cat 3 in 24 hours than they were in the ‘70s and ‘80s.
• The exceptionally warm water already boosted multiple Atlantic storms this season. Hurricane Idalia’s August landfall was the strongest in Florida’s Big Bend region in 125+ years. Hurricane Lee intensified into a Category 5 monster before eventually coming ashore in Nova Scotia as a post-tropical cyclone.
• The broader takeaway from this week’s hurricane is we’re likely to see more and more storms like it. With human-caused climate change, rapid intensification is becoming a more common occurrence, says Suzana Camargo, hurricane expert and professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “All of this is just confirming what we expected,” Camargo says.

How worried are you about climate change? A survey released yesterday finds 71% of Americans believe the climate crisis is harming people now . Has the growing intensity of storms impacted you or someone you know? We’d love to hear your take in the comments section below.

Other stories people are clicking on today:

Intense search after rampage: Federal investigators have joined the urgent search for the suspect in the Maine shootings that left at least 18 dead. Officials say Robert Card , 40, faces an arrest warrant for eight counts of murder, and 10 more counts are expected after more victims are identified. The FBI, ATF, and US Marshals have swarmed Maine to help local authorities find the accused shooter, who is considered armed and dangerous. Stores and factories are closed across the area and some residents are sheltering in their homes. Investigators are examining the suspect's social media and electronic records to try to pin down his whereabouts. Follow CNN’s live updates .

Israel-Hamas war: Nearly three weeks into Israel's war with Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says "this is only the beginning" as Israel prepares for a ground offensive in Gaza. Netanyahu says Israel is "raining down hellfire on Hamas" and "already eliminated thousands of terrorists." The military says it carried out a “targeted raid” overnight in northern Gaza using tanks, “intended to create better terms for ground operations.” Israel has also launched waves of airstrikes in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attacks. New satellite images reveal the devastation wrought by Israel’s bombs.

Surprise growth: The US economy expanded at an even stronger pace than expected in the third quarter, despite record-high interest levels. The Commerce Department reports the gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced, increased at an annualized rate of 4.9%. That rate is well above the second quarter's 2.1% pace, thanks to robust consumer spending. But that strength is forecast to slow down as the economy faces challenges like soaring bond yields and the resumption of student loan payments .

Strike breakthrough: The United Auto Workers union has reached a tentative labor agreement with Ford, in the first step at ending its unprecedented strike against the three major US automakers. The deal is expected to give UAW members pay increases starting at 25% over the next 4.5 years and to return cost-of-living adjustments to the contract to protect workers from rising prices. The 57,000 rank-and-file members of the union at Ford still have to ratify the deal, which is likely to take more than a week. The deal with Ford will not put an end to strikes at rivals General Motors and Stellantis, but will step up pressure on them to reach their own deals with the UAW.

Unemployment ticks up, remains low: First-time unemployment claims ticked up a bit last week, but they still reflect a strong job market with numbers well below historic averages. Americans filing for initial jobless benefits last week increased by 10,000 to 210,000, the Labor Department reports. By comparison, that number averaged 311,000 during the decade before the pandemic and averaged 217,500 in 2019.?

Causing a stir: McDonald's McFlurry spoon is getting the ax. McDonald's says it's phasing out the chunky, hollow, straw-like McFlurry spoon in favor of more sustainable alternatives. (The chain has also tested strawless lids in an effort to ditch straws.) The old spoon was spindle-like to allow restaurant workers to mix in toppings, but they’ll change to using a reusable spindle that's swapped out and cleaned after each ice cream dessert is made. Customers will now get a smaller black spoon that uses less plastic (it comes with sundaes already), which McDonald's says will reduce single-use plastic waste in restaurants. The swap comes a month after PM Plug-In told you about McDonald’s ditching their self-service soda machines .

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