CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE- MIA?
How do we ‘manage risk’ relating to climate change impacts (CCI)? In a classical physics sense the extremes are becoming the new norm and the heat engine (thermodynamics) is generating greater extremes. When cyclone/hurricane/typhoon winds increase above 250km/hr (Category 5) as they are gradually doing then no building can be designed and built to withstand its force let alone buildings that meet no standard. The biggest challenge for lower standard buildings isn’t that they will be destroyed but how far they travel as debris missiles that penetrate well designed buildings.
How do you engineer for the extremes we are now more regularly facing such as 1 in 100 year flood events happening 5 times in 10 years? It is expensive to insure against these events or pay for the cost of disasters after the event. Like climate change resilience, adaptation and mitigation (RAM), disaster risk reduction (DRR) needs to be and is cheaper to carry out by implementing preventative measures before an 'event'. We can all bury our head in shifting shore sands and pretend that it’s not a problem, it’s not our problem or it’s our children’s problem as some leaders seem to espouse. So much for protecting future generations when the coming generation will be lucky to survive. Is this too pessimistic or is it simply recognizing reality, we can be ever optimistic while at the same time preparing for the worst. That is sensible risk adverse behavior that insurance cannot buy!
Small island developing states (SIDS) or least developed countries (LDC) are the most vulnerable nations on earth, with 5 of the top 10 countries here in the South Pacific. What can they do other than rely on the largesse of developed countries via so called Green Bonds that must now be approaching the trillion dollar mark! But are they really green or just another version of business-as-usual (BAU)? Because they are in invested in climate change mitigation (CCM) and adaptation (CCA) does that make them green? To be truly green they need to be available to invest in green solar e.g. leaves that are the ultimate solar radiation converters into green growth and the carbon sink.
Sure solar generated renewable's and geothermal are important and hardened infrastructure is necessary but no one mentions the fact that trees provide the most cost effective ecological disaster risk reduction (ecoDRR) and climate change resilience (ecoCCR) as opposed to social DRR (socDRR). Yes, planting trees to stabilize slopes against landslides, absorb water to reduce and control flows, reduce surface temperatures in cities, capture sediments, protect coasts, wildlife and future food and drug sources, let alone carbon capture and storage and it’s still available as wood. But no we continue to clear our native forests, increase flooding, reduce shore protection, increase heat islands and destabilize slopes and the climate and pay exorbitant infrastructure costs to protect BAU in relation to current investment practices!