Climate change is impacting monsoon patterns across India.

???In the last 10 years, 55% of Indian sub-districts (tehsils) saw an increase in monsoon rainfall, as per our first-of-its-kind granular pan-India analysis.

How is climate change impacting monsoon patterns across India?

??Monsoon rainfall has increased in traditionally drier regions of Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and parts of Tamil Nadu.

That said, monsoon patterns are becoming more erratic. Around 31% of Indian tehsils saw an increase of 4 or more days of heavy rainfall per year in last decade, often leading to an increase in flash floods.?In 2023, Chandigarh received ~50% of its total annual rainfall in just 50 hours, while Kerala encountered a ~60% deficit in June.

???Meanwhile, 11% of Indian tehsils saw a decrease in rainfall in the rain-fed Indo-Gangetic plain, northeast India and the upper Himalayan region.

These areas are crucial for India’s agricultural output and contain fragile ecosystems vulnerable to extreme climate events.

Monsoon patterns are also changing from October to December, particularly crucial for peninsular India.

In the last decade,? more than 10% increase in rainfall was noted in 80% of tehsils in Tamil Nadu, 44% in Telangana & 39% in Andhra Pradesh. Odisha, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Goa are also witnessing an increase in rainfall during this period.

?What were the monsoon trends over the past 40 years?

India experienced 29 ‘normal’ southwest monsoons.?However, a closer look? shows that 23% of districts such as New Delhi, Bengaluru & Jaipur witnessed a high number of both deficient and excessive rainfall years.

So how can India adapt to changing monsoon patterns? We recommend:?

?Developing district-level climate action plans incorporating tehsil-level climate risk assessments.

?Investing in automatic weather stations and community-based recordings to capture rainfall variabilities at a hyper-local level.

To know more about the monsoon trends in India over the last 40 years, read our study, “Decoding India’s Changing Monsoon Patterns: A Tehsil-level Assessment”.??

https://www.ceew.in/publications/decoding-indias-changing-monsoon-patterns

Shravan Prabhu Vishwas Chitale PhD