Climate Change Hoax!

How long have we known about the warming of the Earth through increased Carbon Dioxide and other green house gases?

The understanding of Earth's warming due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) spans over a century of scientific inquiry. The foundational recognition of this phenomenon dates back to the late 19th century when scientists first theorized the greenhouse effect. Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius, in 1896, proposed that the burning of fossil fuels could elevate atmospheric CO2 levels, leading to global temperature increases.

Throughout the 20th century, advancements in climate science, atmospheric chemistry, and technological capabilities refined our understanding. G.S. Callendar reported in 1938 in his paper: “The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature” that temperature of the Earth was rising and that it was probably due to artificial carbon dioxide.

In the 1950s to 1970s, research intensified with the establishment of global monitoring networks and computer modelling techniques. The Keeling Curve, initiated by Charles David Keeling in 1958, provided continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, illustrating a steady rise over time. Keeling's work provided the first systematic, high-precision measurements of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 50 Years of Continuous Measurements. This being confirmed as a danger by no other body but Exxon in an 1977 internal paper.

By the late 20th century, scientific consensus solidified around the reality of anthropogenic global warming, supported by numerous lines of evidence from paleoclimate studies, satellite observations, and climate models. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), formed in 1988, has since synthesized this wealth of research, producing comprehensive assessments documenting the impacts of GHGs on the Earth's climate. Today, the evidence for human-induced climate change is unequivocal, underlining the urgent need for concerted global action to mitigate its effects.

Arrhenius' 1896 Model of the Greenhouse Effect

In 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius proposed a groundbreaking model of the greenhouse effect. At the time, industrialisation was ramping up, and Arrhenius theorized that human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, could increase atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, leading to global warming. His model suggested that CO2 acted as a blanket, trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere, thereby raising temperatures. Although initially met with skepticism, Arrhenius' insights laid the foundation for modern climate science. His work anticipated the profound impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on Earth's climate, a concept now widely accepted and supported by empirical evidence.

Arrhenius' 1896 Model of the Greenhouse effect in Context

Measurement and Prognosis in 20th Century

G.S. Callendar reported in 1938 in his paper: “The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature” that temperature of the Earth was rising and that it was probably due to artificial carbon dioxide. ?

“By fuel combustion man has added about 150,000 million tons of carbon dioxide to the air during the past half century. The author estimates from the best available data that approximately three quarters of this has remained in the atmosphere.”

Higher precision measurements improving data.

The Keeling Curve is the now famous graph that illustrates the continuous rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations over time. It is named after Charles David Keeling, an American scientist who initiated the measurements in 1958 at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Keeling's work provided the first systematic, high-precision measurements of CO2 levels in the atmosphere. 50 Years of Continuous Measurements

The curve depicts seasonal variations in CO2 levels, which fluctuate due to natural processes such as photosynthesis and respiration in plants. However, it also reveals a clear upward trend, reflecting the influence of human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, which release CO2 into the atmosphere faster than natural processes can absorb it.

The Keeling Curve has become an iconic symbol of anthropogenic climate change, illustrating the relentless increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and providing crucial evidence of the link between human activities and global warming. It serves as a cornerstone of climate science, informing policymakers, researchers, and the public about the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

When Keeling died in 2005, global CO2 levels had risen to 380 ppm. On April 3, 2021, we surpassed 420 ppm for the first time in recorded history. These measurements were both taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Keeling’s legacy. Yet, sixty-three years after its establishment, human-induced climate change is still a topic of political debate—even though the science is settled.? JSTOR article

What did the Oil Companies Know?

By 1968 the American Petroleum Institute (API) was commissioning reports warning that greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion could result in "the melting of the Antarctic ice cap, a rise in sea levels, [and] warming of the oceans." – Smoke and Fumes

Another study recognizing the potential impact of CO2 on climate by Exxon, was in 1977. The study was titled "Carbon Dioxide Effects: An Appraisal and Strategy for the Future." July 1977, when its senior scientist James Black delivered a sobering message on the topic.

“In the first place, there is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels... present thinking holds that man has a time window of five to 10 years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical." James Black, Exxon

A year later he warned Exxon that doubling CO2 gases in the atmosphere would increase average global temperatures by two or three degrees, a number that is consistent with the scientific consensus today. In other words, Exxon needed to act.

Full Reference: "Exxon, Carbon Dioxide Effects: An Appraisal and Strategy for the Future" (1977). This report was prepared by the Exxon Research and Engineering Company, Corporate Research Science Laboratories, and was widely circulated within the company. Details published in Science.

Information it distributed widely internally in 1982 and quotes Keeling’s observations and that “Man-made carbon fluxes are assumed to be the only ones to have disturbed the equilibrium to have existed before the industrial revolution.”

In 1989 Exxon, Shell, BP, Chevron, and API collaborated to found the "Global Climate Coalition," to spread misinformation and skepticism about climate change.

It wasn’t until 2007 that ExxonMobil publicly acknowledged that climate change was occurring and that it was largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels and proliferation of heat-trapping CO2.

Summary

The understanding of Earth's warming due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) has evolved over more than a century of scientific inquiry, dating back to the late 19th century when scientists first proposed the greenhouse effect. In 1896, Svante Arrhenius suggested that the combustion of fossil fuels could raise atmospheric CO2 levels, leading to global temperature rises. This pioneering work laid the groundwork for modern climate science, foreseeing the significant impact of human-produced greenhouse gas emissions.

Further confirmation came in 1938 from G.S. Callendar, who highlighted the correlation between rising atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperature increases. The establishment of the Keeling Curve by Charles David Keeling in 1958 provided continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, revealing a clear upward trend driven by human activities.

By the late 20th century, scientific consensus had solidified around anthropogenic global warming, supported by evidence from various sources including paleoclimate studies, satellite observations, and climate models. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), formed in 1988, combined this wealth of research, producing comprehensive assessments on the impacts of GHGs on Earth's climate.

Exxon's internal study in 1977 further emphasized the recognition within the scientific community, and even within the oil industry itself, of the potential impact of CO2 emissions on climate. Senior scientist James Black's sobering message to Exxon's management committee highlighted the urgent need for action to address the looming threat of climate change.

These historical milestones collectively underscore the long-standing awareness of human-induced climate change and the imperative for concerted global efforts to mitigate its effects.

References:

Arrhenius, S. (1896). On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground. London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, 41(251), 237-276.

Callendar, G.S. (1938). The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 64(275), 223-240.

Keeling, C.D. (1960). The concentration and isotopic abundances of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Tellus, 12(2), 200-203.

Black, J. (1977). Carbon Dioxide Effects: An Appraisal and Strategy for the Future. Exxon Research and Engineering Company, Corporate Research Science Laboratories. https://ia800409.us.archive.org/1/items/ExxonInsideClimateNews/James%20Black%201977%20Presentation_djvu.txt

Beck, E-G (2007) 180 Years of Atmospheric Co2 Gas Analysis by Chemical Methods https://www.jstor.org/stable/44397135?seq=1