Climate change and global food security

When the topic of global climate change is discussed in general, it is easy to miss out specific implications of this phenomenon on the future generations. One aspect that will directly affect the welfare and wellbeing of our future population is food security and this article will discuss the impact of climate change, global warming and the sudden – and often erratic – behaviour of climatic events on our ability to grow and produce agricultural products to satisfy an ever-increasing population. This discussion is based on the works of Lobell and Field (2007) and Brown and Funk (2008).

The importance of agricultural crops cannot be understated: the six most widely-grown crops in the world (wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley and sorghum) account for over 40% of global cropland area, 55% of non-meat calories and more than 70% of animal feed. By and large, commodity prices have seen an increasing trend in the last three decades as shown in Figures 1 to 3 which capture the price trends of three major crops. 

Figure 1- historical corn prices (Source: www.macrotrends.net)

Figure 2- historical soybean prices (Source: www.macrotrends.net)

Figure 3- historical wheat prices (Source: www.macrotrends.net)

At the same time, agricultural area per capita and arable land per person has decreased, shown in Figures 4 and 5 respectively. The combined effect of this is that food security challenges have risen in many areas of the world. In countries where the population is heavily dependent upon locally-grown agricultural products, this can often pose a problem especially for farmers who are dependent upon crops for income as well as self-sustenance. 

Figure 4- Agricultural area per capita (Source: www.ourworldindata.org)

Figure 5- Arable land use per person (Source: www.ourworldindata.org)

Lobell and Field (2007) assert that it is not very straightforward to ascertain the impact of past climatic changes on agriculture as global warming may have increased yield in some areas of the world while significantly decreasing it in other parts of the world. Through the development of empirical and statistical models, their work evaluates the relationship- if any- between major crop yields and temperature and precipitation. Their results are profound: climate change has had an overall negative impact on several major crops. Predicting the impact of climate change on future agricultural crop yield is complicated and it varies from region to region depending on various factors such as economic, social, political and agricultural policies and advancement in and use of agricultural technologies. Specifically, with regards to mechanisation and the use of technology in agriculture, farmers who use more advanced methods and products are more likely to be able to avoid drastic effects of climate change on their crop yields in the long run. In the context of tropical regions of the world, this poses a two-fold problem for farmers there. Firstly, climate change tends to have a more sever effect in the warmer areas such as tropics and the impact of such climate change is more pronounced. Climate change in these areas is also often unpredictable and erratic and offers less time and opportunity to prepare for. Secondly, the majority of tropical areas of the world are still under-developed and the farmers there generally do not have the advanced means to counter the impact of climate change on their crops. This further worsens the conditions of these regions and thus climate change affects the food security of these areas more adversely than other areas.

All hope is not lost, however. Some communities can deal with the negative impact of climate change on some crops by replacing them with other options; sorghum for example has higher temperature tolerance and lower water requirements than other staple crops. Of course, it is not that easy to replace a staple crop in a particular community which has been consuming another type for many generations. Governments can also start realising the importance of agriculture in the face of climate change and begin to invest in advanced agricultural techniques and products such as types of machinery, fertilizers and seeds. Investment in environment-monitoring programs can also help by forecasting any oncoming effects and helping the government and farmers adjust their agricultural activities accordingly. Finally, by focusing more on local markets and farmers, countries can help strengthen their own agricultural dependence instead of relying on foreign aid; this will help improve the food security of the local farmers as well as improve the local supply of agricultural products within the country.

The importance of staple crops in an ever-changing world cannot be emphasised enough and scientific evidence is now pointing towards the negative effects that climate change over the years has had on some of the major crops. And while those in developed countries, especially in the tropical areas of the world, are most vulnerable from these negative effects, proper macro-economic and microeconomic policies and efficient investment of funds into agricultural advancement can help improve the status of food security in these areas and ensure there is food for everyone at the table.

References:

Brown, M. and Funk, C. (2008). Food Security under climate change. Science, 319(5863), pp.580-581.

Lobell, D. and Field, C. (2007). Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2(1), p.014002.

Macrotrends.net. (2018). Wheat Prices - 40 Year Historical Chart. [online] Available at: https://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-prices-historical-chart-data [Accessed 13 May 2018].

Our World in Data. (2018). Yields and Land Use in Agriculture. [online] Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/yields-and-land-use-in-agriculture [Accessed 13 May 2018].