Climate change-driven change: A warmer planet is reshaping lives and pushing people to move, yet again
Bradley Schurman
Strategic Foresight // Demographic Change // Inclusive Design // Author of THE SUPER AGE: DECODING OUR DEMOGRAPHIC DESTINY (Harper Collins) // Founder and CEO of The Super Age // 40OverForty
Remember the surge of people moving to new areas of the country during and just after the pandemic?
A lot of people were drawn by the lure to improve their quality of life, live in a cheaper area, and get a bigger home. They moved to the southern and western regions of the United States — a trend that sped up during the pandemic and the flexible work years.
But now? There’s another kind of migration starting up again, but this time, it is driven by the effects of climate change , which are starting to catalyze another mass move. This one has the potential to upend the lives of hundreds of millions of people, reset real estate and insurance markets and disrupt local governments and the services they provide in the coming years.
According to Eric Vermeiren, Director of NASDAQ ESG Advisory, “People in the United States often hear ‘climate change’ and think it’s a distant threat in both time (i.e., happening at some point in the future) and space (i.e., affecting some other part of the globe), but impacts from climate change are very real and they’re happening right here and right now.”?
In 2022 alone, the U.S. Census Department reports that?3.2 million U.S. adults were displaced or evacuated due to climate change-driven disasters — and more than? 500,000 of them had not returned a year later.?
According to other data, about 3.2 million Americans have already moved due to the mounting risk of flooding. A recent First Street Foundation report said local populations in “climate abandonment areas” fell between the years 2000 and 2020 due to risks linked to climate change. The report also notes that extreme climate events of recent years have impacted 36 million properties nationwide — or one-quarter of all U.S. real estate.?
Eric believes that we can expect much more climate disruption in the coming years, including higher numbers of climate migrants, noting a White House report that estimates that worldwide “more than 216 million people could migrate within their countries as a result of climate change by 2050.” That’s more than two-thirds of the U.S. population today.
But extreme climate events will not be the only factors pushing people to move. Eric says “other forces, like salination of croplands, extreme drought and rising costs will increasingly factor into people’s decisions to relocate” if they can.
Managing Partner at Garden District Ventures. Currently on medical leave.
3 个月Hi Bradley – the numbers are mind-boggling and climate change will continue to drive stronger hurricanes, more wildfires, and increasing drought in the USA, but ~1% of Americans feeling the effects will not move the needle. Americans need to get a clue about how rising temps and sea levels are driving climate migration GLOBALLY for context. When you encounter people in Indonesia or the Philippines who are losing their homes and livelihoods, it is far more visceral. Global food shortages have already begun as production costs surge; parts of Asia including Sri Lanka and India are already dealing with them. Farmers are being squeezed out of business, and Big Ag is moving in. The Indonesian government is moving the capital to Nusantara from a quickly-sinking Jakarta. Bangladesh, with 175 million people, is facing the loss of 17% of its territory due to rising seas, which could see 30% of the country's agricultural land gone. So yeah, 3.2 million Americans have reasons to care, but a billion-plus people in Asia face imminent harm. Meanwhile, Florida is building shiny new yacht harbors that won’t even exist in a few decades and DC is back to pushing “Drill, Baby, Drill.”
Sales Representative / Customer Service Specialist
3 个月Very interesting and insightful