Is Climate Change Destroying Nigeria’s Lifeline: Agriculture?

For over 60% of Nigerians, agriculture is not just an economic activity; it’s a lifeline. This sector, which employs a substantial portion of the population, is now facing an existential threat from climate change.

According to the World Bank data from 2018, around 37.3% of Nigeria's total land area is considered agricultural land, which includes arable land, permanent crops, and permanent meadows and pastures. However, only around 40% of the potentially arable land in Nigeria is currently being cultivated, according to some estimates.

Agriculture contributes about 21% to Nigeria's GDP, reflecting its crucial role in the economy, as indicated in another report by the World Bank. The primary crops include cassava, yams, maize, rice, and sorghum, which are essential for both domestic consumption and export.

Rural areas in Nigeria heavily depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Many households engage in subsistence farming, cultivating just enough to feed their families, with any surplus sold in local markets. This reliance on agriculture sustains communities, ensuring food security and providing a source of income.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report on "Sustainable Development Goals in Nigeria" highlights that agriculture is a critical sector for job creation and poverty reduction in the country.

Additionally, agriculture in Nigeria faces challenges such as limited access to modern farming techniques, inadequate infrastructure, and climate change impacts. Despite these obstacles, the sector remains vital, with government initiatives and international partnerships aiming to boost productivity and sustainability. Programs focusing on improving irrigation, offering better access to credit, and providing training in modern farming practices are crucial in enhancing the sector's efficiency and output.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report "Nigeria at a Glance" emphasizes the importance of these interventions in supporting Nigeria's agricultural development.

According to the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), agriculture employs over one-third to two-thirds of Nigeria's total labour force and contributes around 22-27% to the country's GDP. The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics states that agriculture remains the largest sector, contributing 21.91% of the total GDP in the first quarter of 2022, highlighting its significance for the economy.

With over 70% of the population engaged in the sector, primarily through subsistence farming, as per the UNDP, agriculture is deeply intertwined with the daily lives and livelihoods of a majority of Nigerians, underpinning the socio-economic fabric of the country.

2023: A Year of Climate Extremes

Last year marked a turning point, with erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, devastating floods, and severe soil degradation.

The year 2023 served as a stark reminder of Nigeria's vulnerability to climate change. Data from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) indicates a year of weather extremes – some areas suffered through droughts exceeding 4 months, while others battled devastating floods that impacted 20% of the country's agricultural land. This is coupled with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)'s warnings about desertification, this pattern highlights the urgent need for climate action to protect Nigeria's environment and ensure a sustainable future.

These events led to a spike in food prices, widespread hunger, and increased malnutrition rates across the country.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Monitoring and Analysis report, Nigeria experienced a 19.6% increase in food prices between March 2022 and March 2023. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that as of 2022, around 19.5 million Nigerians were facing acute food insecurity, a significant increase from the previous year.

Furthermore, a UNICEF report on the nutritional situation in Nigeria revealed that the prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years old rose from 37% in 2018 to 42% in 2022, indicating worsening malnutrition rates. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has warned that the combination of conflict, economic shocks, and climate change has pushed millions of Nigerians into hunger and malnutrition.

The Looming Crisis: A Threat to Nigeria’s Food Basket

The Threats:

• Agricultural Drought: According to projections from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), by 2050, Nigeria could face a 100-200% increase in drought exposure, severely impacting crop yields and food security (IFPRI Climate Change Report, 2022).
• Coastal Flooding: The World Bank estimates that with rising sea levels, approximately 7 million Nigerians living in coastal areas are at risk of displacement and loss of livelihoods (World Bank Coastal Cities at Risk Report, 2021).
• Rising Temperatures: Research published in the scientific journal Climatic Change in 2019 shows that Nigeria's agricultural sector is facing major challenges due to increasing heat and high temperatures. This heat stress is causing crop failures and livestock losses, which is making food insecurity an even bigger problem in the country. Since the 1960s, Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) reports a 1.1°C increase in average temperatures nationwide. This shift has already disrupted planting seasons in some areas. Projections show a further increase of 2-3°C by the 2070s. This could lead to earlier harvests followed by longer dry periods, impacting agricultural productivity and straining water resources.. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization warns that these rising temperatures put Nigeria's crop and livestock farming at risk of heat-related stresses and losses.

The Roadmap to a More Secure Future:

Investing in Climate-Smart Solutions:

• Drought & Flood-Resistant Crops: Initiatives like the National National Agency for Science & Engineering Infrastructure - NASENI research into heat-resistant and drought-tolerant crops are vital. Collaboration with the FAO can accelerate this research and tap into global climate funds through public-private partnerships.
• Early Warning Systems for Coastal Communities: Strengthening the collaboration between Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and utilizing mobile alerts or radio broadcasts can empower communities to prepare for and respond to climate threats.
• Resilient Irrigation Infrastructure: The government, with support from The World Bank, is investing in building and maintaining irrigation infrastructure to combat rising temperatures.

Empowering Smallholder Farmers:

• Public-Private Partnerships: Partnering with International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the private sector can provide technology and resources to smallholder farmers, enhancing their productivity and resilience.
• Capacity Building: The Institute for Agricultural Research’s role in developing knowledge on new technologies and training programs for extension workers and farmers is crucial for successful adoption.
• Regenerative Agriculture: Policies that incentivize regenerative practices can lead to a win-win for farmers, the environment, and food security.

The Time for Action is Now:

We must invest in climate-smart solutions, empower farmers, and embrace sustainable practices to build a more resilient future for all Nigerians.

Nigeria, a major African economy, faces a ticking time bomb. A recent report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) estimates an additional 100 million Africans could be in poverty by 2030, a staggering 20% increase.

As a key player on the continent, Nigeria can't afford to wait. The government, along with private stakeholders, needs to start investing in climate-smart solutions like drought-resistant crops and efficient irrigation systems. Studies conducted by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) show these solutions can increase crop yields by up to 30%, even under drought conditions. Empowering farmers with these climate-smart solutions and sustainable practices is Nigeria's pathway to building resilience and securing a brighter future for its over 200 million citizens.

Join the Fight for a Sustainable Future

Climate change threatens food security for all. But there's hope. Climate-smart agriculture can increase food production while reducing emissions.

Here's how you can make a difference:

1. Raise your voice for a greener future: Demand action on climate-smart food production which will help the country to build a resilient food system.
2. Contact your representatives and elected officials: Urge them to invest in sustainable farming practices. Tell them to prioritize food security and push for policies that protect our food supply and our future.
3. Join the fight for fresh food: Support organizations that promote sustainable farming practices.

Together, we can create a food system that nourishes people and protects our collective future as a nation.

Do you have more ideas?

Kindly share your thoughts and insights on how we can collectively address these challenges and secure the future of Nigeria's agriculture.