Climate Change Brings Unprecedented Wildfires and Snowfall to Greece, Highlighting Forecasting Uncertainty

With rising temperatures impacting forecast certainty, Weathernews Inc. aims to lead the way in providing accessible weather information to help individuals and communities take necessary actions in time.

In the early morning of February 6th, Athenians were greeted by a stunning sight outside their windows: snow covering not only the Acropolis, but also most of the city center and even areas close to the seaside. While this is not an entirely uncommon occurrence, what made it truly remarkable was that it marked the third consecutive year in which the city had experienced such a wintry landscape. According to meteorologists, the last time Athens saw three years of consecutive snow settled was in the 1950s, making this recent phenomenon a significant weather event.

Amidst the chaos of urban life, snow can be both a beautiful sight and a nuisance. But for Greece, a country not accustomed to heavy snowfall, it can be particularly problematic. Extreme weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and gale-force winds can also wreak havoc, especially in the maritime industry.?

Despite Greece's location in the far southeast corner of Europe, its climate is diverse, spanning at least four different zones. From semi-dry hot climates in the south to cool continental climates in the north, the country's weather is generally mild with rainy winters and hot summers. However, even mild climates are not immune to extreme weather events, which have become increasingly common due to climate change.

In the past two decades, Greece has experienced hotter summers and milder winters with only occasional cold spells, along with a decrease in overall rainfall but an increase in sudden, intense rain events. While snow may still be seen in Athens in the future, it will likely occur less frequently but with greater intensity, according to climatologists. Despite these challenges, the government and citizens are becoming more vigilant in response to the growing risks posed by climate change.

While snow in the Attica region may be a rare sight, the mechanism behind the recent snowfall is quite straightforward. Scientists liken it to the process that produces extreme snow coverage in the Great Lakes area of the United States. As frigid cold NW'lies pass over the warmer lakes, they become moister and gain energy from the warmer body beneath, resulting in up to 1m of snow and major disruptions in low-lying areas on the opposite side of the lakes.

Similarly, this mechanism is at play above the Aegean Sea, with cold NE'lies carrying loads of snow across Evia Island and secondarily to the Attica area. This has resulted in significant snowfall in the region in February 2021, January 2022, and recently in February 2023, with each cold spell receiving its name. Meteorologists have found that naming severe storms raises public awareness and preparedness.

In addition to snow, all these cold spells usually come along with severe gale winds of up to 8 or 9 on the Beaufort scale, resulting in moderate to locally high waves in the Aegean and Ionian Seas, posing a challenge for the maritime industry. Archived data indicates that severe weather has significant impacts on the industry, with damage at ports and vessels unable to reach and stop at the port being among the most common. However, these damages tend to occur less frequently at the busiest ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki, where most commercial vessels are headed.

Furthermore, high waves produced by severe gales frequently lead to passenger ships coming to a halt at the ports, causing significant delays on the routes and public discomfort, even during the summertime.

How can we accurately forecast weather conditions?

This is a question that has long eluded meteorologists. The atmosphere is a chaotic system, which makes it extremely difficult to predict the weather with precision, even for the next few days. Uncertainty often increases during approaching storms or cold spells, making it even harder to predict the severity of their impacts.?

Meteorologists have found a way to navigate this uncertainty: the so-called "Ensemble Forecasting." This method involves generating an ensemble, or group, of forecasts that aims to encompass the full range of potential outcomes and their likelihood. By using probabilistic information, ensemble forecasts can provide valuable early warnings of hazardous weather, enabling decision-makers to take appropriate action ahead of time.

As a result, we are moving from deterministic to probabilistic weather forecasts, giving decision-makers more room to take necessary precautions. Ensemble forecasting is being adopted in various sectors, from the Public Weather Service to Shipping and Aviation forecasting.

WNI is among the latest to implement this methodology, embracing the trend towards probabilistic forecasting. With Ensemble Forecasting, they aim to provide more accurate and reliable weather forecasts to their customers.

" Weathernews Inc. is always looking for innovative ways to improve our forecasting services and meet our customers' needs," says Amy Buhl , Marine Group Operations General Manager at WNI. "By implementing Ensemble Forecasting, we're able to provide more accurate and reliable #weatherforecasts, which is crucial for many of our clients who rely on us for decision-making."

"Our Voyage Planners have also adopted Ensemble Forecasting as part of our strategy," says Filotas Paschos , Business Development Manager at WNI "We leverage data and technology to analyse various factors when making route recommendations for specific voyages. By using advanced analytics, we can determine the safest and most efficient routes for our #maritimeindustry clients."

"We believe that this data-driven approach is the future of the maritime sector," says Buhl. "It allows us to improve our operations while ensuring the safety of our clients and the environment."

Overall, it's clear that Weathernews Inc. is committed to staying ahead of the curve when it comes to #forecasting and #weather routing. By listening to their customers' needs and leveraging the latest technology, they're setting a new standard in the industry. With this new standard, oversimplified routing algorithms are left behind, and #safety and accuracy become the top priorities.

Leverage the weather for a sustainable future

A series of extreme weather events in Greece, such as unprecedented wildfires and snowfall, are highlighting the uncertainties of weather forecasting brought on by #climatechange. As temperatures rise, forecasting becomes increasingly unpredictable, making it hard to determine the severity of approaching storms or cold spells. This is why companies like Weathernews Inc. are embracing ensemble forecasting, which involves creating an ensemble of forecasts that aims to encompass the full range of potential outcomes and their likelihood. This probabilistic method provides valuable early warnings of hazardous weather, enabling decision-makers to take appropriate action ahead of time.

With climate change causing more severe weather events than ever before, it's crucial for businesses to be prepared. Accurate weather forecasts and expert advice can make all the difference in protecting lives, property, and economic activities. That's why industry leaders, such as WNI, are working effortlessly to identify and inform communities of the risks of natural disasters. “By sharing this information with other businesses and residents, we aim to contribute to more resilient communities that are better equipped to withstand the impact of severe weather", Filotas Paschos concluded.