Climate Action, Consumption Based Emissions and the Circular Economy
CoP26 and a New Decade for Climate Action
The final substantial act of the decade in climate negotiations was CoP25 in Madrid. Instead of mobilising climate action into the next decade, the outcome was deeply disappointing and left the world wondering how we can collectively accelerate climate action.
CoP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, the end of the previous decade, was similarly disappointing and initiated a radically different approach which resulted in the Paris Agreement being agreed at CoP21 in 2015.
It's worth reflecting on the ebbs and flows of climate negotiations. The difference between the end of the last decade and the end of this decade is that the window for emissions reduction to limit temperature rises is rapidly closing and urgency for action has increased considerably.
So the outcome of CoP25 is all the more disappointing. The combination of the reduced ambition and the inability to agree the Paris Rule Book on Article 6 (Carbon Markets) threatens the dramatic progress we need to address climate change. The breakdown of the global coalition is very worrying with the unedifying sight of the US and Australia siding with Saudi Arabia. The ambition of the world's two largest emitters, China and the US, that was forged ahead of Paris has ebbed away.
There are, of course, some bright spots. The global coalition held firmly enough to conclude that no deal on carbon markets was better than a bad deal. Civil society, again, played an important role in holding politicians to account.
As with the previous decade, we have to turn adversity and disappointment into a catalyst for action. If a successful CoP21 came from CoP15, a transformational CoP26 has to come from to CoP25. Sending a signal that we can move from a bad CoP to a good CoP in one year rather than six years would be a major achievement. So what can we do about the current situation and how do we set CoP26 in Glasgow up for success?
Shift the focus to consumption: It’s very good to see the UNFCCC promoting the circular economy together with a strong presence from the Ellen MacArthur Foundation at the CoP. With emissions continuing to rise, it’s starting to become more challenging for the Paris Agreement in its current form to deliver the deep decarbonisation that’s required to meet the Paris targets.
Part of the problem lies in the fact that, whilst many developed countries are decarbonising, the carbon intensity is not decreasing quickly enough because of consumption-based emissions which are being imported from higher carbon-intensity economies. There's two solutions to the issues - rapid decarbonisation of production or a significant reduction of consumption. Both are necessary and both have consequences for the drivers of economic growth that fuel the global economy.
Major economic dislocation can be addressed through both new investment in clean and resilient infrastructure and the adoption of the circular economy principles of sharing, repairing and reuse. Service-based businesses have the potential to enable a different growth model, rebuild communities and support high-quality jobs
The UK is in a very interesting position. This chart from The Economist show how the UK consumes 40% more emissions than it produces - the largest difference of the OECD countries and the other major global emitters. Difference between consumption and production emissions. Whilst the UK has a great story to tell on decarbonising electricity production, it shows how much further the UK has to go to reduce consumption based emissions and get to a genuine net zero position.
Developing better analytics: Recent work from the C40 on Consumption-Based Emissions in Cities (https://www.c40.org/researches/consumption-based-emissions) and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and Material Economics on the relationship between climate change and consumption(https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/completing-the-picture-climate-change) have started to frame a different way of thinking about emissions reduction. However, even in concentrated areas like cities, it remains difficult to get a grip on the relationship between reduction of consumption and waste and the impact in changes in recycling. That's because material production to waste disposal is a system with complicated inter-relationships that we haven't evaluated adequately up until now.
Materials such as food, plastics and textiles contribute significantly to emissions in cities (not to mention steel, concrete and other construction materials). Putting together an analytical framework to prioritise interventions to help cities become low carbon and circular can improve decision making and is now urgent. Developing and rolling out these tools can help policy makers prioritise action towards a low carbon pathway. For London, they are a critical enabler of becoming the world's leading low carbon circular city.
A Commission for the Circular Economy: Building on the concept of the New Climate Economy Commission, the Global Commission on Adaptation (https://gca.org/global-commission-on-adaptation/adapt-our-world) and a High-Level Commission on Carbon Pricing (https://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/report-of-the-highlevel-commission-on-carbon-prices), it's time for a Commission on the Circular Economy to raise the profile and built momentum.
Reducing our consumption and promoting a circular economy and ambitious climate action can be self-reinforcing. All this will help to demonstrate that the richest countries and their citizens can benefit from the transition to net zero emissions and support increased ambition. Developing countries and emerging markets can also find new growth models that protect communities and the environment.
"So what" for CoP26 in Glasgow with a UK presidency?: The first year of a new decade for global climate action will come to an end in December in Glasgow. Countries are expected to commit to increased ambition over their original Nationally Determined Contributions. Quite rightly, the focus will be on energy generation and a massive shift to cleaner, renewable energy. Finance will also be at the heart of the discussion. Divestment from fossil fuels, aligning financial flows to the objectives of the Paris Agreement and ensuring that climate finance is flowing from developed to developing countries will be central as will the challenge of scaling up investment for adaptation to build resilience.
CoP26 will be a great test for UK leadership and diplomacy coming at a time when the UK is rethinking its position in the world as a result of Brexit. Focusing on reducing consumption based emissions and the benefits that a circular economy can bring has the potential to be a powerful part of the UK's economic, environmental and diplomatic narrative. London can play its part by being a leading low carbon circular city and promoting analytics that support better decision making.