Clear Thinking when Clouds Gather

In the film Apollo 13, Ed Harris playing Gene Kranz, head of Mission Control, quips the famous line, "People, let's not make this problem worse by guessing". It's a natural human condition to want to solve problems, and to solve them quickly. Daniel Kahneman talks about our natural propensity to live in the impulse zone in his studies on system 1 and system 2 thinking.

Whether we're self-aware or not, then we can all fall into the impulse zone and chase theories. Just look at the tragedy that unfolded in the search for the Yorkshire Ripper to see what the worst failings can be when those theories are not substantiated by facts. Pressure brings clouds, stress muddies the water and hides our capability to resolutely determine facts before theory.

Tiredness is also no friend of clear rational thought. In my early management career then as a shift manager some of my laziest, worst decision making and problem solving would be in the-end-of-shift, twilight zone hours. After a 12 hour night shift with critical machinery on stop, and no production running then asking me whether we should re-boot the PLC or change the I/O racks would have brought an occasional and tired "just do anything'' answer.

And this week, I realise that another human condition, grief is no buddy of logical, clear thinking. My mother had been in palliative care since the end of the summer and sadly passed away a fortnight ago. Her condition had meant that my partner and myself both needed our own cars as I flitted up and down the M1 on a 100-mile return journey to provide care for mum. But, September saw the reliable 10-year old Golf bite the dust and even though it had been to the moon in it's life-time-miles then it was time to consign it to the great scrapyard in the sky. A quick decision analysis (sound objectives) meant the best choice (by far) was to replace it with the Merc lying in the garage that had been unfairly written off a few years ago. It came through with it's new bodywork and craftsmanship with flying colours and knocked the MOT over like a Mexican super-middleweight might do to his opponents.

The Merc ran like a dream in the first week but had an occasional 'auxiliary battery warning' light on it's ECU display. 'Give it time, give it some alternator charge' and perhaps it will take care of itself thought the old electrical engineer and indeed it did. The alarm did not reappear after a few long trips. Until the weekend. Then the ECU then brought up a 'fatal' error': "Do not engage gear, consult workshop". The ECU message also had an inhibit on gear selection. They're not daft these software engineers you know.

A call to the excellent body-shop repairer ensued and not wanting to let his fee-paying client down and in an effort to keep the the bereaved customer delighted with his restored car came the comment: "Change the auxiliary battery, I'm almost certain that's what will be needed". 2-days later and quite a few quid lighter, the auxiliary battery is changed by yours truly, and you've guessed it. Gene Kranz's words are ringing in my ears. Facts and data before speculation. Sherlock Holmes would agree. I'll let you know what the actual root cause is in good time. I'm not going to guess.

Jonathan Buck is a management consultant, chartered engineer, management coach, trainer/instructor and a problem-solver. In 1989 whilst working for British Coal he was dragged reluctantly into a Kepner-Tregoe Analytical Trouble Shooting workshop. The skills learnt, practiced and lived by, changed my working life.