Clean power by 2030: what needs to happen?

By Anthony Ainsworth, Chief Operating Officer, npower Business Solutions.

How realistic is Labour’s manifesto pledge to deliver clean power by 2030?

According to analysis by the new National Energy System Operator (NESO), it can be achieved – albeit with a huge amount of effort from multiple stakeholders.

In a report published earlier this month, the new publicly owned energy operator, which took over the role from National Grid at the start of the year (2024), sets out a vision along with advice for the government, in its capacity as an objective, strategic advisor.

It’s now up to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and his team to mull this over – and decide what steps and policy decisions need to be made.

A Herculean task

?? The positive news is that NESO thinks the government’s clean power target can be met – but that multiple changes need to be made for this to happen, including reforms to planning, grid connections and electricity markets.

However, as Dan Meredith discussed in his recent energy policy overview, the government is already gearing up with the creation of new roles for experienced energy professionals and introducing new ways of working to facilitate greater cross-departmental collaboration to achieve its key aims.

But in terms of how to deliver the 2030 clean power target, what exactly is NESO suggesting?

Two possible pathways

?? NESO has set out two potential pathways – which it’s calling New Dispatch and Further Flex and Renewables.

The former is built on the delivery of new low-carbon dispatchable power plants, utilising Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS ) or hydrogen. And the latter requires higher levels of societal engagement, storage and flexible response alongside fast deployment of renewables.

However, both pathways are similar in that they assume that wind – especially offshore wind – as well as solar provide the backbone of the UK’s electricity system.

In addition to this big increase in renewable generation, both pathways require rapid growth in networks, flexibility and demand management.

NESO suggests that security of supply can be safeguarded by retaining a gas fleet of a similar size to today – but that this would typically contribute less than 5% of overall demand.

Demand flexibility plays a key role

?? Of particular interest to our market serving large business consumers – and indeed, any energy consumer – is the four-to-fivefold increase in demand flexibility that NESO suggests will also support the clean power target.

NESO recommends to achieve this, the government must unlock flexibility markets, promote engagement and remove barriers for households, businesses, suppliers and aggregators.

Additional points of note include:

? As much offshore wind capacity must be contracted in the next 24 months as in the last six years combined

? All planned transmission networks must be built on time – that’s twice as much built in the next five years as was built in the last decade

? ￡40 billion of investment to fund this transition needs to be secured annually to 2030

? All elements must be delivered simultaneously, in full and at maximum pace

￡40 billion of annual investment required

?? We’re obviously keen to understand more about how the transition will be funded and what the impact to consumer energy invoices may be.

The next step is for government to respond to NESO’s report.

We anticipate this will provide more detail about how to mobilise generation, networks, flexibility and the demand at the scale needed to deliver a clean power system by 2030 will emerge through a series of policy announcements over the coming weeks and months.

We will keep you up to date with these – and what they are likely to mean for?your business – as they are announced.

To keep up to date with energy news and policy developments, take a look at our Energy News and Insight hub.