Civil war is coming to the UK but not in the way you think

As a new type of conflict emerges, security professionals and policymakers need to understand why traditional defences won't work

Rising political polarisation, economic strain, and cultural conflicts have pushed civil unrest from a remote possibility to a pressing concern for Britain's security establishment.

Scholars like Professor David Betz of King's College London offer stark warnings about potential conflict. However, what we face is less likely to be traditional warfare and more likely a period of sustained political violence and instability. This distinction is crucial for security professionals tasked with protecting organisations, infrastructure and personnel in an increasingly volatile environment.

Scholars’ Warning Signs

In his 2023 article "Civil War Comes to the West," Professor Betz identifies several converging factors that could triggercivil unrest in Britain: social instability from fragmentation, economic decline increasing resource competition, and cultural fragmentation from identity politics without cohesive integration strategies. His analysis points to a conflict characterised by an urban-rural divide conflict, with infrastructure vulnerabilities as potential targets for disruption.

The urgency of Betz's concerns are urgent, as he suggests that such conflicts could emerge in Britain within the next five years. Rather than envisioning armies on battlefields, he foresees a "hybrid civil war" featuring political violence, insurgencies, cyber warfare, and urban unrest. The complex infrastructure upon which Western societies depend makes them particularly vulnerable to disruption by small, organised groups.

Not War, But Widespread Unrest

What distinguishes the potential coming conflict from traditional civil war is its likely character. Rather than organised military action between defined factions controlling territory, we are more likely to witness episodic violence, targeted disruptions of infrastructure, cyber attacks, and increased polarisation undermining democratic institutions.

For security professionals, this presents a fundamentally different challenge than preparing for conventional threats. The distributed, unpredictable nature of such unrest requires a shift from traditional security paradigms towards more adaptive, intelligence-led approaches. Security managers must consider:

• Infrastructure vulnerability assessments that consider both physical and cyber dimensions
• Supply chain resilience considering potential disruptions to transport networks and distribution systems
• Crisis response plans addressing multiple simultaneous incidents in various locations
• Personnel security protocols for staff operating in potentially volatile urban environments

The urban-rural divide identified by Betz offers insight into how such conflict might manifest. Metropolitan centres, with their concentration of economic assets, headquarters, and critical infrastructure, could become focal points for disruption. Meanwhile, rural facilities might face different security challenges, perhaps related to access restrictions or isolation during periods of unrest.

The Propaganda Ecosystem and Threat Assessment

Jacques Ellul's concept of propaganda provides a crucial framework for security professionals attempting to assess emerging threats. Modern propaganda is not merely about manipulating opinion but about creating entire environments that shape how people perceive reality itself. This continuous conditioning process creates groups with different worldviews, complicating prediction of trigger events and potential targets.

Risk consultants and security policymakers must develop sophisticated horizon scanning and intelligence analysis capabilities. The conventional "likelihood x impact" risk model may prove insufficient when dealing with actors motivated by entirely different perceptions of reality. Security professionals must:

• Develop multi-perspective threat assessments that consider how different groups perceive specific organisations, industries, or institutions
• Monitor narrative shifts across social media and alternative news sources that might indicate changing target priorities
• Establish early warning indicators specific to ideologically-motivated threats rather than traditional criminal or terrorist methodologies
• Build scenario planning exercises that incorporate unexpected or seemingly irrational actor behaviours

Identifying Potential Flashpoints

The presence of organisations like Peter Whittle's New Culture Forum reflect the intensifying contest over British identity, history, and values. For security professionals, understanding these cultural battlegrounds is essential for identifying potential flashpoints where rhetoric might translate into action.

Cultural institutions, media organisations, universities, and symbolic corporate entities may find themselves targeted not for traditional criminal motives but as representatives of contested values or ideologies. Board members responsible for security must consider their organisation's public positioning on contentious issues as potentially relevant to their security profile.

Security companies serving clients in these sectors must develop specialised risk assessment methodologies that incorporate analysis of cultural and political positioning alongside traditional vulnerability factors. This represents a significant evolution in corporate security thinking, moving beyond physical and cyber protection towards understanding how an organisation's perceived cultural stance might affect its security posture.

Strategic Security Planning

For senior personnel of security companies and policymakers, the prospect of prolonged civil unrest necessitates strategic reconsideration of:

1. Resource Allocation and Capabilities

Traditional security models focused on deterrence through visible measures may prove ineffective against ideologically motivated actors. Resources may need to be redirected toward:

• Enhanced intelligence capabilities and open-source monitoring
• Scenario planning and red-teaming exercises incorporating non-traditional threat actors
• Resilience and continuity planning rather than prevention alone
• Training in de-escalation techniques and managing ideologically driven confrontations

2. Coordination and Information Sharing

The distributed nature of potential unrest will require unprecedented coordination between:

• Private security providers and public law enforcement
• Organisations within the same sectors or geographical locations
• Critical infrastructure operators and their dependent organisations
• Security teams and corporate communications/public affairs departments

3. Legal and Ethical Frameworks

Security professionals will face complex questions about:

• The proportionality of preventative measures
• Privacy implications of enhanced monitoring for early warning
• Duty of care obligations to staff, customers and the public
• Navigating political neutrality while protecting organisations

Navigating Forward

Security managers and board members responsible for organisational security must prepare for potential civil unrest without underpreparing for genuine threats or overreacting in ways that might exacerbate tensions.

Practical steps might include:

1. Developing apolitical security postures that protect organisations without appearing to take sides in cultural or political disputes
2. Building community relationships that might provide early warning of localised tensions
3. Conducting infrastructure dependence audits to identify vulnerabilities in increasingly complex systems
4. Creating graduated response plans that can adapt to different levels and types of unrest
5. Training security personnel to manage ideologically motivated confrontations differently from traditional security incidents

The prospect of civil unrest in the UK is neither inevitable nor dismissible. By understanding its likely character as political violence rather than traditional warfare, recognising the role of propaganda in shaping perceptions, and developing appropriate security responses, professionals can help organisations navigate this challenging landscape. The security industry may need to evolve, developing new methodologies, technologies and approaches suitable for a more fractured and unpredictable social environment.