Civil Society Observatory of Illicit Economies in Asia-Pacific — January Update

Dear Newsletter Subscribers,

This month, to kick off the year, we’ve collated some views and perspectives from across the team about what we might be able to expect both from GI-TOC but also in the world of countering transnational organised crime in 2025. ?Please do share your reactions, updates and also your work - which we are always very happy to include and support you in promoting here in the newsletter. ?If you’d like to be a profiled GIN member and promote some of your upcoming work, please do let us know.

South East Asia

As Malaysia assumes the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN for 2025, it does so against a backdrop of increasing organized criminality across South East Asia. This can be seen with the continued influence of heroin and synthetic drug markets, and the burgeoning cyber scamming industries. The harms from these illicit economies are being felt both regionally and globally, fuelled by conflict, the criminalization of politics and rapid digital transformation.?

The lack of attention to organized crime as a policy threat means that the need for robust and reliable data is more important than ever. This year the Asia-Pacific Observatory will continue to deliver analysis and insights into the illicit economies across the region, including reports on illicit economies in Myanmar, the criminal economy fuelling the cyber scam industry and the increasing prevalence of ‘geocriminality’ across South East Asia.

As the space for civil society continues to be challenged within the region, the GI-TOC, through its Resilience Fund, will step up its support for local civil society organizations and individuals operating at the front lines of the fight against illicit economies.?

China

For those following the Chinese party-state and its relationship with crime, 2025 could be a year of great significance. Domestically, one can expect a continued flow of corruption cases involving public figures, particularly related to the defence realm as Xi Jinping continues to strengthen his own position vis-à-vis China’s military.?

Internationally, the impact of another Trump presidency can be felt even here, as eyes turn to the flow of fentanyl (and its precursors) into the U.S. after Trump’s prior criticism of China’s role. Closer to home, 2025 will see China continue to attempt to deal with the corollaries of its approach to Chinese criminal activity in neighbouring countries. While the year could see further developments in the spectacular case of Alice Guo in the Philippines, it is one element of that case, cyber scam sites, where the most meaningful developments could arise. An approach that appeared to permit criminality abroad in instances where Chinese party-state objectives were supported has produced significant unintended consequences. An epidemic of criminal activity across cyber hubs in Southeast Asia has increasingly reached back home, with Chinese citizens targeted by scams or trapped in the sites themselves. While there is now clearly a will to act in Beijing, and action to boot, there will be no change to the centralisation of power and absence of effective oversight that led us to this point.?

The GI-TOC on the Pacific

Transnational organized crime trends are evolving rapidly in the Pacific Islands. The nature and methods of criminal actors, especially foreign ones, have been diversifying for some time placing island countries right in the middle of transnational supply chains of illicit commodities. In 2024, this has resulted in record-breaking seizures of drugs, especially synthetic, and the expansion of domestic markets with a host of repercussions for local populations. These challenges are not going away in 2025. On the contrary, there remains an urgent need to tackle illicit markets and an ever expanding range of cyber crimes, alongside more traditional and established crimes in the environmental sector, among others. Contributing to this agenda, at GI-TOC we are getting ready to embark on new work that not only aims at improving the awareness and understanding of these crimes, but also builds local capacity to address them.

This cannot be achieved without acknowledging the geopolitical elephant in the room and the competition between the so-called traditional partners and newer ones. Lots of questions remain answered as we wait for the new Trump administration to unveil plans for the region, and which of course will impact relations beyond the organized crime portfolio. A potential sticky point that comes to mind is climate change, the greatest and most tangible security challenge for the Pacific Islands. ?On our part, a big focus for this year is going to be resilience building. Politics, geopolitics and diplomatic relations can make tackling crime difficult or even reduce it to a lesser priority. Yet, the pernicious direct and indirect impacts on people and the environment are real and are happening now. Therefore we want to look at ways in which we can support communities to build antibodies to organized crime.

Technology?

In 2024, we observed the widespread criminal exploitation of technological innovations, including the use of artificial intelligence and natural language processing software for the purpose of cyber-enabled scams. Crime-as-a-service platforms, some of which now reportedly offer their own messaging apps, stablecoins and cryptocurrency exchanges[KA1] , are a particularly stark example of criminal innovation and the governments’ lack of political will to reduce crime. Given that technology has been evolving faster than the ability to regulate it, and the fact that South East Asian countries have taken different regulatory approaches to address vulnerabilities, tech innovations will continue to be a key concern to watch out for in 2025.

Technological innovations not only facilitate cyber scam operations but in fact, are a key enabler of most (all?) illicit markets in South East Asia. While this is not unique to the region, particularly communication technology and FinTech are widely misused by criminals to offer illicit goods, connect among peers, or launder money. However, there are also multiple initiatives that use technological innovations for good. For example, the GI-TOC’s ECO-SOLVE project is currently developing an AI-driven automated web-scraping that monitors the global illegal wildlife trade. The potential benefits of harnessing technology to prevent and fight crime are enormous. Have a look at our recent Intersections Report which discusses these opportunities, as well as the Tech Against Trafficking Initiative, which the GI-TOC supports as research lead, and which aims to put some ideas into practice.

Resilience Fund and Civil Society Organisations

In 2025, the Resilience Fund will broaden its efforts to strengthen the capacities of local civil society actors in addressing organized crime, with a particular focus on nature crimes in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. ?This year, we will also focus on corruption linked to organized crime, a pressing issue across the region. Alongside offering small grants to support civil society interventions, the next Resilience Fellowship will centre on this critical theme. To further these efforts, we will collaborate with the Asia Pacific Observatory to host two virtual dialogues with civil society actors—both at the national and regional levels.

Repatriation Ceremony of Confiscated Tortoises under CITES Obligation

On 23 January, the South East Asia Coordinator, Alastair MacBeath , and Analyst Matthew Eiampikul from the GI-TOC’s ECO-SOLVE project, attended the Repatriation Ceremony to return CITES-protected tortoises to Tanzania which were seized in Thailand. The seizures were part of Operation Golden Strike which took place July 2022 to tackle wildlife trafficking. It resulted in significant wildlife seizures, more than 300 arrests, and the dismantling of networks behind wildlife smuggling between Asia and Africa.

Alastair moderated a lively panel discussion on the importance of international law enforcement cooperation in dismantling organized criminal networks and the associated challenges of seizing illicit goods, arresting suspects and mounting a successful prosecution. In 2023, Alastair wrote about the challenges of international law enforcement cooperation in wildlife crime in Asia and Africa.

GI-TOC at the Asia-Pacific Regional Preparatory Meeting

Louise Taylor, Director for Asia & the Pacific at GI-TOC, attended the Asia-Pacific Regional Preparatory Meeting for the Fifteenth United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice. ?The meeting emphasised the urgent need to modernize crime prevention and criminal justice strategies for the digital era. Key themes such as inclusivity, international cooperation, and technological innovation were central to discussions, with broad agreement on protecting vulnerable populations, strengthening cross-border collaboration, and leveraging technology responsibly. However, nuanced debates emerged, including environmental crime terminology, the treatment of marginalized groups, and the balance between national sovereignty and international frameworks. The path to the 2026 Congress will require navigating diverse national interests while maintaining a focus on tangible, practical solutions. The GI-TOC remains committed to partnering with stakeholders across sectors to ensure that the next Congress drives impactful, forward-thinking solutions for crime prevention and justice reform. To read Louise’s statement please click here.

Coming up

On Thursday 6 February Asia-Pacific Director Louise Taylor is hosting a webinar on the theme of “Mapping the World Order”. Led by seasoned Security Sector Reform and law enforcement practitioner Dr Tony Murney, this session will explore government effectiveness, rule of law and processes that undermine the capacity of states to benefit citizens. You can read more about the event and register here.

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Until next month,

Louise Taylor

Director, GI-TOC Civil Society Observatory of Illicit Economies in Asia-Pacific