The Citrus Season is Upon Us. Learn Why You Must Place Your Orders in Advance.

As we prepare for the upcoming citrus season, it is crucial to understand the trends shaping this year’s California navel orange crop. Despite one of the highest fruit sets in recent years at 414 oranges per tree, the persistent heat wave in the San Joaquin Valley has resulted in smaller fruit sizes, with an average diameter of just 5.24 cm (2.063 inches) – the smallest recorded for this time of year since the 2000s. This means that while there are more fruits on the trees, the smaller sizes are leading to only a modest 2% increase in carton forecasts compared to last year.

?? Impact of the Heat

The extended summer heat that began in July has slowed fruit growth, significantly affecting the size curve. Larger-sized oranges (56 and 72 counts) will be in high demand as the season starts. However, there is optimism! If temperatures cool over the next six weeks, we could still see a meaningful increase in fruit size.

?? Positive Developments

In terms of quality, the absence of insect damage, particularly from citrus thrips, has significantly improved the fruit's appearance. Prices are also expected to remain strong, especially with the Valencia season wrapping up early and imports tapering off. The first fruit of the season is expected to be packed by the end of October, with volumes depending on weather conditions in the coming weeks.

In addition, Florida's citrus industry, already under strain, has been dealt another blow with the recent release of the USDA's forecast for the 2024-2025 growing season. The forecast, based on surveys conducted in mid-September before Hurricane Milton struck, projects a 16.8% decline in overall citrus production compared to last season. This decline includes oranges, grapefruits, and specialty crops like tangerines and tangelos, resulting in production levels falling below even the historically low output of 2022-2023, which was the lowest in nearly 90 years.

??? The Impact of Hurricane Milton

In addition to long-standing issues such as citrus greening and urban encroachment, the citrus industry has faced repeated devastation from hurricanes. In 2022, Hurricane Ian ravaged Central Florida’s groves, and now growers are grappling with the aftermath of Hurricane Milton. The Category 3 storm, which made landfall in Sarasota County, caused significant fruit drop, with further impacts expected to be revealed in the coming months.

?? A Declining Harvest

The new USDA forecast presents a challenging picture. Orange production is expected to reach only 15 million 90-pound boxes, down from 17.96 million last season. Grapefruit production is also declining, projected at 1.4 million boxes—a significant drop from the 2 million boxes produced just a few years ago. Specialty crops are anticipated to yield only 400,000 boxes, continuing a downward trend in production.

?? Looking Ahead: Recovery & Resilience

Growers in Florida have faced numerous challenges over the past two decades, yet the resilience of the industry remains strong. As Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, noted, recovery is already underway. However, it will take up to two years for groves to fully recover from storms like Hurricane Milton, and continued support from federal and state partners will be essential.

?? Veracruz Orange Production Faces Major Challenges ??

Veracruz, Mexico’s top orange producer, is facing a crisis due to climate change and the spread of Huanglongbing (HLB), a devastating citrus disease. According to researcher Gustavo Almaguer Vargas from Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo, orange production has been cut in half, impacting 20,000 hectares. HLB, combined with severe droughts, is affecting yields, fruit quality, and increasing the need for pesticides.

?? A Path to Recovery

Despite these challenges, there is hope. Almaguer emphasizes that collaboration between farmers, academia, and the government is essential to modernize farming practices and restore Veracruz’s orange sector.

?? What Does This Mean for You?

At JASU, we are preparing for an exciting season of premium citrus derivatives! Whether you are looking for cold-pressed oils, distilled oils, or other top-tier citrus products, now is the time to prepare. Given the conditions, premium-sized fruit will be limited, so to secure the best citrus derivatives, we encourage you to place your orders in advance. Let us make this citrus season a fruitful one together!?? Contact us at [email protected]

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