Citi: Ten Things You Need to Know About Ratings in APAC before March starts | 花旗：亚太区评级机构月度十大新鲜事·2022年3月刊

Country / Territory Theme

国家/地区主题

1. Moody’s forecasts the APAC high-yield corporates default rate at 6.2% for 2022,?slightly lower than the record high at 7.5% of 2021 year end but higher than the pre-pandemic level and the average level of 3.9% for the past 10 years. The recovery rate for APAC senior secured and senior unsecured obligations of the rated defaulters was 27.6% and 35.3%, respectively, both of which were much lower than the global average. The lower APAC recovery rates were driven by the very depressed secondary bond trading prices at the time of default (including distressed exchange) and partly skewed by the relatively small population of defaulters. The default rate forecast reflects Moody’s expectation that global and APAC economies will continue to recover steadily, but monetary policies will become less accommodative. It also reflects that Chinese property companies will remain under pressure with higher default risk than the rest of the APAC portfolio. Moody’s expects the funding access and liquidity conditions will remain tough for Chinese property developers, while cash flow of Chinese non-property companies and S&SEA companies will continue to improve.

1.?穆迪预测2022年亚太区高收益企业违约率为6.2%，略低于2021年底7.5%的历史高位记录，但高于疫情前水平和过去10年的平均水平（3.9%）。亚太区已评级违约企业的高级抵押和高级无抵押债务回收率分别为27.6%和35.3%，二者均远低于全球平均水平。违约或折价清偿时二级债券交易价格低迷，加之违约者数量相对较少，导致亚太区回收率偏低。该预测违约率反映穆迪对于全球，包括亚太区经济将继续稳步复苏的预期，但货币政策却可能难复以往的宽松。这也反映出中国房地产公司相较于亚太区其他已评企业，将继续面临更高违约风险所带来的压力，而其融资渠道和流动性也将持续承压；另一方面，中国非地产公司以及南亚、东南亚公司的现金流将继续得以改善。

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2. S&P Global (China) Ratings, otherwise known as S&P China and S&P’s China onshore subsidiary, provided market anchors with its debut release of unsolicited ratings on 25 Chinese issuers, aiming to bring more transparency into the local market. This marks the first massive move upon its appointment of Zhi Huang as its new CEO.?The rating action covers 19 corporates and 6 financial institutions among more than 10 industries, including but not limited to real estate, transportation infrastructure, banks, insurance, securities firms, building materials and commodity chemicals. The ratings cover a wide spectrum of the rating scale, from single-B to triple-AAA in S&P’s local Chinese scale. Amid ongoing regulatory efforts to promote the high-quality development of the domestic rating industry, the S&P onshore subsidiary hopes the benchmark ratings would contribute to the improvement of rating quality and credit risk differentiation in the industry.

2.?标普信评首次为25家中国企业发布主动评级，为中国评级市场提供了市场评级尺度标杆，提高市场透明度。本次主动评级亦标志着标普信评自任命黄直为新任CEO后的首次大动作。本次评级包括19家企业和6家金融机构，涵盖10余个行业，包括但不限于房地产、交通基础设施、银行、保险、券商、建材和化工等。值得一提的是，本次授予的级别覆盖了标普信评中国评级序列从B到AAA的几乎所有级别。在监管积极推动国内评级行业高质量发展的背景下，标普信评希望能以本次评级发布来推动行业质量和信用风险区分度的提升。

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3. S&P believes that South and Southeast Asia will produce more unicorns, resulting in funding surge to help them expand and capture market share.?However, protracted cash burn is unsustainable and detrimental to their credit quality. In addition, the complex operating conditions, evolving regulatory framework, governance risk from prioritizing equity quality over credit quality as well as weaker business profile are also the key credit constraints for the unicorns in SSE. S&P points out that unicorns would need to increase monetization and temper spending on customer acquisitions and retention in order to generate positive EBITDA and operating cash flow, in order to achieve a sustainable capital structure.

3.?标普认为南亚和东南亚将涌现更多独角兽公司，并引领融资热潮，助其实现扩张并占领市场份额。?然而，持续靠烧钱抢占市场份额的行为并非长久之计，且将对其公司信用质量产生不利影响。此外，复杂的经营环境、日益健全的监管框架、重股权而轻信用带来的治理风险，以及业务疲弱均是南亚和东南亚独角兽面临的主要信用制约因素。标普指出，独角兽公司需加强变现能力，并控制获客留客支出，以产生正EBITDA和运营现金流，实现可持续的资本结构。

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Industry Theme

行业主题

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4.?S&P China recently published a series of credit research on Chinese top financial institutions (FIs), including banks, securities firms, and leasing companies. The report series remark the consistent push from the agency to extend wider coverage on local market, in addition to its existing international ratings on Chinese issuers. Top 10 private Chinese Banks’ are estimated to have a median S&P local rating of BBB, with individuals ranging from A- to BB. Securities firms show wider varying credit quality, ranging from AA to B- in the local scale. Leasing companies’ credit quality is also all over the credit scale with top CBIRC regulated leasing companies being able to target AAA, while commercial leasing names may get as low as single-B. S&P China sets the Chinese banks’ anchor rating at BBB+, securities firms and financial leasing companies’ anchor at BBB-, and BB+ for commercial leasing. Such anchor rating is a starting point for industry names. We expect S&P onshore FIG team to continue take lead in presenting S&P views on China FIG and rendering quality investor services on sector views provisions.

4.?标普信评于近期发布了一系列关于中国一线金融机构的信用研究报告，包括银行、券商和租赁公司。该系列报告能有效帮助标普在其现有对中国发行人的国际评级外，不断推动对本地市场评级的覆盖。据标普信评估计，中国前10的民营银行的国内评级中值为BBB，主体评级从A-到BB不等。券商信用质量范围跨度更广，国内评级从AA到B-不等。租赁公司的信用质量也涵盖了几乎所有信用等级，其中受银保监会监管的头部租赁公司评级可达AAA，而部分商业租赁公司的评级可能低至B。标普中国将中资银行的起评分定为BBB+，券商和金融租赁公司的起评分为BBB-，商业租赁公司为BB+，并以此作为业内各公司的起点。我们预计标普信评团队将持续为标普金融机构团队扛旗，代表标普发表其对中国金融机构及相应的行业观点，并为投资者提供优质服务。

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5.?Moody’s highlights real estate exposure as key 2022 challenge for Chinese trust companies, because trust companies have more real estate sector exposure than other financial institutions, and China's current property market distress could push up?delinquencies in these companies' trust plan assets, therefore weakening the underlying asset quality and liquidity of the trust plans. Other than that, Moody’s believes the capital and?operation weaknesses, and?soaring redemption may be another 2 major challenges in 2022. However, for many trust companies controlled by strong SOEs, external support will provide risk mitigation. While the protection fund provides an additional support mechanism, particularly for the private trust companies, it is insufficient to provide full coverage.

5.?穆迪指出房地产敞口风险上升将成为中国信托公司2022年的主要挑战，因为信托公司的房地产行业敞口高于其他金融机构，而中国当前的房地产市场困境可能会推高信托计划的违约率，继而削弱其基础资产质量和流动性。除此之外，穆迪认为相对薄弱的资本和运营、赎回飙升可能是中国信托行业2022年需面临的另外两大挑战；但对于那些由实力雄厚的国有企业控制的信托公司而言，外部支持将有助于缓解风险。?另外，尽管信托业保障基金提供了额外的支持机制（特别是对私人信托公司），但并不足以提供全额覆盖。

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Key Rating Actions

主要评级行动

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6. Fitch concludes vast majority of the APAC rating reviews as a result of the Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) rating criteria update.?AVIC International, CK Hutchison Group Telecom and ENN Energy got an upgrade,?Resorts World Las Vegas and?Singtel Optus got a downgrade, Genting Malaysia and Genting New York ratings got affirmed.??Globally 49 entities were put in Under Criteria Observation (UCO). The rest of the reviewed APAC entities are mainly from the Chinese property space. The recent PSL methodology update provides a more comprehensive framework and puts specific emphasis on the legal support incentives when assessing parental support for subsidiaries.

6.?惠誉完成了对绝大多数亚太区的母子公司评级关联性（PSL）的评级复核。中航国际、长和电讯（CK Hutchison Group Telecom）和新奥能源的评级获得调升，?Resorts World Las Vegas和Singtel Optus（新加坡电信下属公司）评级调降，云顶马来西亚和云顶纽约的评级获确认。受此次PSL方法论更新，全球有49个受评企业及相关实体被列入复核名单。目前尚未完成复核的亚太区企业主要来自中国地产业。近期PSL标准更新使得评级框架更具有系统性，并在评估母公司对子公司的支持时将法律支持义务评估提到了前所未有的高度。

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7.?S&P and Fitch affirm Meituan’s ‘BBB-’ rating with ‘Negative’ outlook amid Chinese authorities’ new policy to lower food delivery platforms’ fees charged to their merchants. The potential fee cut, combined with the higher social insurance to riders introduced last year, could have a material impact on the Meituan’s already thin profitability, and lead to reduced rating buffer. S&P believes Meituan has the lowest rating buffer under stress scenario among its internet peers in China, which are largely cashed up and survive another year of government scrutiny. The new policy, aiming to help small and mid-size food businesses navigate the pandemic, could also slightly benefit?large merchant such as Haidilao as well. S&P maintained Haidilao’s ‘BBB’ rating but placed it under rating review due to recent profit warning as well as increasing uncertainty on the company’s ability to restore leverage in 2022, while Fitch affirms the company’s ‘BBB’ rating with ‘Negative’ outlook. Further rating actions will depend on companies’ new business plans and how local governments implement the new policies.

7.?在有关部门出台降低外卖平台商户收费新政策的背景下，标普和惠誉确认美团的“BBB-”评级，展望“负面”。潜在的降费，加之去年推出的外卖小哥社保缴纳要求，对美团本已微薄的盈利能力产生重大影响，对现有评级构成一定下行压力。标普认为，相比其他拥有大量现金并对政府监管行动有较强抵御能力的中国互联网同业，美团的潜在评级下行压力最大。外卖降费新政旨在帮助中小型食品企业抗击疫情，但也可能惠及海底捞等大型商户。基于此，标普维持海底捞的“BBB”评级，但由于近期盈利预警以及2022年杠杆恢复的不确定性增加，暂将其置于评级审查中；惠誉也确认海底捞的“BBB”评级，展望“负面”。以上公司未来的业务计划以及地方政府如何实施新政将决定进一步的评级行动。

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8.?Mumbai International Airport Limited’s (MIAL) has been assigned a rating of BB+ (EXP) with Stable outlook by Fitch based on a case of full recovery of traffic to pre-pandemic levels by end-2024, with leverage, on average, of 7.6x over FY23–FY27 (financial year end of March). At the same time, the rating also takes into account the strong passenger growth potential in medium to long term, the regulated asset base, higher contribution of domestic traffic compared to international traffic, and the adequate financial profile. The rating also reflects the ring-fenced structure of MIAL which insulates the issuer from any liability or funding shortfall for its sister airport, the?Navi Mumbai International Airport Limited (NMIAL) which is under construction and expected to become operational by FY25. Fitch now leads the pack with public ratings on all three major airports in India – MIAL (BB+/Stable) along with?Hyderabad Airport (BB+/Stable) and Delhi Airport (BB-/Stable), while Moody’s and S&P has ratings on the latter two airports at Ba2/Negative and B1/Negative; and BB-/ Negative and B-/ Positive respectively.

8.?惠誉授予孟买国际机场有限公司（Mumbai International Airport Limited，简称孟买机场）BB+（EXP）的预期评级，展望稳定，评级主要假设是2024年底交通流量将全面恢复到疫情前水平，以及2023-2027财年平均杠杆率为7.6倍，同时还考虑了强劲的中长期客运增长潜力、受监管资产、高于国际的国内客运量贡献以及充足的财务状况。该评级亦反映了孟买机场与新孟买机场的财务隔离，使其免受新孟买机场的负债或资金短缺问题的负面影响，新孟买机场正在建设中，预计将于2025财年投入运营。在印度三大主要机场的所有公开评级中，惠誉遥遥领先—孟买机场（BB+/稳定）、海得拉巴机场（BB+/稳定）和德里机场（BB-/稳定），而穆迪和标普仅对后面二者有公开评级，分别为“Ba2/负面”和“B1/负面”；和?“BB-/负面”和?“B-/正面”。

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ESG Theme

ESG主题

9.?Moody’s updated their assessment of the credit materiality of environmental risks and social risks for selected sectors. Moody’s has moved up the overall environmental risk for airline sector to high risk category, which is the second highest category in Moody’s 4 point risk scale, while for automotive suppliers, beverages, tobacco and restaurants the overall environmental risk converged at moderate. Moody’s has also moved up the overall social risk for construction sector to high. Other sub-factor adjustments on both E and S risks are made to a wide range of industries including consumer, shipping, gaming and industrials sectors. Based on the recently published?ESG 101 brochure?Getting Started with ESG: What Every Company Needs to Know?published by Sustainalytics, a company with better ESG profile could benefit investor relations, boost risk management, reduce HR costs, enhance corporate value and provide access to new markets.

9.?穆迪更新了对特定行业环境风险和社会风险信用重要性的评估。穆迪将航空业的整体环境风险调升至高风险类别，达到其风险等级中的第二高类别，而汽车供应商、饮料、烟草和餐馆的整体环境风险则为中等。穆迪亦将建筑行业的整体社会风险调升至高风险，另对包括消费、航运、博彩和工业在内的众多行业进行了环境风险和社会风险的其他子因素调整。根据近期由Sustainalytics发布的ESG入门手册：《ESG之旅：企业必读》（Getting Started with ESG: What Every Company Needs to Know），?更佳的ESG形象将利好公司的投资者关系，促进风险管理，降低人力资源成本，提高企业价值并能收获新市场准入机遇。

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10. Fitch presents its take on ESG Investing Trends in China/APAC in its latest webinar.?Increasing awareness and sophistication on the theme is expected in Chinese onshore market, while?taxonomies in key markets such as Malaysia, Korea, and Singapore are forming up.?The taxonomies will help the green labelling mechanism consistent and form a common language for the public and private sector to work together on this pressing topic. In addition to CO2, methane is also under spotlight given its even severe warming effect than CO2. Agriculture (particularly cattle farming and rice planting) and landfill sectors take up more than 50% of regional methane emission, outweighing the emissions from hard-to-abate sectors such as oil & gas as well as coal mining. Investors are also increasingly focusing on social factors. Based on PwC’s latest investor survey, social issues such worker health & safety, workforce diversity, human rights in the supply chain are head-to-head with GHG emissions issues as the top cited ESG issues.

10.?惠誉在近期的网络研讨会上介绍了其对中国/亚太区ESG投资趋势的看法。预计中国大陆市场对ESG的认识和成熟度将提高，而马来西亚、韩国和新加坡等主要市场的绿色分类方法正在形成。成熟的分类方法将有助于绿色标签机制的一致性，并促成公共和私营部门的合作。除了二氧化碳，甲烷也受到关注，因为它的升温效应尤甚于二氧化碳。农业（尤其是养牛和水稻种植）和垃圾填埋行业占区域甲烷排放量的50%以上，比重大于油气以及煤炭开采等“老大难”行业。投资者也日益关注社会因素——根据普华永道的最新调查，工人健康与安全、劳动力多样性、供应链中的人权等社会问题与温室气体排放问题并驾齐驱，成为最受关注的ESG问题。

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Bonus?买十送二

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11.?S&P published a report to assess the rating impact for Chinese internet companies under stress-case scenarios.?S&P expects Chinese internet companies to face another challenging year--one marked by regulatory actions, slowing economic growth, and rising competition. Under these conditions, revenue and profit growth will slow and?net cash positions may deteriorate. Scenario analysis in the report examines which issuers are most at risk in the face of severe regulatory penalties and actions. In a "stress-case" regulatory scenario, most rated Chinese tech firms have the cash to absorb any fines.?Under the scenario, Weibo and Meituan have the lowest rating buffers. Among the intangible risks is the crackdown on internet companies using?alternative listing structures known as variable interest entities. S&P views Chinese internet companies with primary or secondary listings in Hong Kong to be less exposed to the above risks. For now, its base case is that the Chinese government is unlikely to ban the use of VIE structures for Chinese issuers.

11.?标普发表了一份报告，评估压力情景下中国互联网公司所受的评级影响。标普预计，中国互联网公司在今年仍将面临挑战，包括监管行动、经济增长放缓和竞争加剧。在这种情况下，收入和利润增长将放缓，净现金头寸可能会恶化。报告中的情景分析考查了哪些发行人在面临监管趋严时的风险最大，而大多数受评的中国科技公司在压力测试中都有足够的现金来承担罚款，但其中微博和美团的评级潜在下行压力最大。VIE架构上市的互联网公司也将面临一定风险。标普认为，在香港进行首次或二次上市的中国互联网公司面临的上述风险较小。标普表示，目前来看中国政府禁止中国企业使用?VIE?结构的可能性较小。

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12. Indonesia introduced a new regulation which includes a cap on the domestic selling price of various palm oil products?– Moody’s believe that this will not substantially weaken the credit quality of the four rated palm oil producers because lost earnings and operational disruptions arising from the regulation would be minimal. The Ministry of Trade (MOT) set a maximum retail price for various categories of?palm cooking oil sold domestically to rein in high prices for the widely consumed cooking ingredient. To prevent palm oil producers from diverting their sales overseas to circumvent the domestic price cap, the MOT imposed a minimum sales volume requirement of at least 20% of export volume to be kept for domestic sales. The MOT also stated that the CPO price cap will only apply to CPO that palm oil exporters need to set aside to meet their Domestic Market Obligation requirement, and not for all CPO sold domestically.

12.?印尼颁布新法规，对各种棕榈油产品的国内销售价格设置上限——穆迪认为，这不会大幅削弱四家受评棕榈油生产商的信用质量，因为该法规导致的收益损失和运营中断的程度很小。印尼贸易部为国内销售的各类棕榈食用油设定了最高零售价，以抑制这种广泛使用的烹饪原料的涨价情况。为防止棕榈油生产商将其销售转移到海外以规避国内价格上限，贸易部规定了最低销量要求，即内销量必须为出口量的至少20%。贸易部还表示，原棕油价格上限仅适用于棕榈油出口商为满足其国内市场义务而需要预留的原棕油，而不适用于所有在国内销售的原棕油。

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Source: Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, Sustainalytics

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