Cicero Challenge: Reading List

“Read at every wait; read at all hours; read within leisure; read in times of labor; read as one goes in; read as one goes out. The task of the educated mind is simply put: Read to Lead.” - Marcus Cicero

These words from Marcus Cicero, the great Roman philosopher, educator, orator , ring as true today as they did over 2000 years ago. Though we live in an age of constant change, accelerating trends, technological disruption, and endless click-bait distraction, Cicero's wisdom reminds us that a vigorous intellect requires discipline, diligence, and devoted learning if we want to manage through increasingly chaotic times.

I often talk about de-risking our product strategy or product roadmap, but what about de-risking and preparing for our futures? It's easy to get lost in the daily grind of KTLO, focusing solely on the next 3 to 6 months while reacting to the latest curveball that disrupts our best-laid plans. We've been intrigued by the power of futures thinking and strategic foresight and we've explored how these methods and principles can integrate with critical and human-centred design to yield exceptional results. We decided to have some fun and push ourselves further, leading us directly to……

#CiceroChallenge

The Cicero Challenge was 90 articles, 90 reflections, in 90 days on Futures, Strategic Foresight, and integration with Critical, Human-Centred, and Transition Design —a challenge designed to ignite our imagination through a focused, ambitious goal. Charles Plath and I chose these articles to drive our deep dive into this domain, and we'er publishing it here in case anyone wants to accept the challenge.

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References

1. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead . Harvard Business Review.
2. Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids . Harvard Business Review.
3. Betty S. Flowers, (2003), The art and strategy of scenario writing . Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 31 Iss 2 pp. 29 - 33
4. Raford, N. (2015). Design & Futures – A Process Model Integrating Design Thinking and Strategic Foresight . Journal of Futures Studies, 20(2), 91-110.
5. Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques . Foresight, 9(1), 5-25.
6. Gordon, T. J., Rohrbeck, R., & Bjerre, M. (2019). Escaping the faster horses trap: Bridging strategic foresight and design-based innovation . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 145, 325-334.
7. Farrington, T., Henson, K., & Crews, C. (2012). The use of strategic foresight methods for ideation and portfolio management . Research-Technology Management, 55(2), 26-33.
8. Schwarz, J. O., Rohrbeck, R., Wach, E., & Steinert, M. (2022). How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects . Futures, 140, 103080.
9. Rohrbeck, R., Battistella, C., & Huizingh, E. (2015). Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 1-9.
10. Sakellariou, K., Alexiou, A., & Ipate-Filip, O. M. (2022). Foresight, sensemaking, and new product development: Constructing meanings for the future . Journal of Business Research, 144, 230-242.
11. Hines, A. (2016). Thinking about the future: Guidelines for strategic foresight . Social Technologies, 6(1), 66-79.
12. Habegger, B. (2010). Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands. Futures, 42(1), 49-58.
13. Ollenburg, C. (2019). A Futures-Design-Process Model for Participatory Futures . Journal of Futures Studies, 24(2), 5-26.
14. Wildman, P., & Inayatullah, S. (1996). Ways of knowing, culture, communication and the pedagogies of the future . Futures, 28(8), 723-740.
15. Burke, R. (2002). Organizational Future Sense: Action Learning and Futures . International Futures and Foresight Programme Working Paper, 1.
16. Quicksey, A. (2021). Policy Prototypes: How designers and policy practitioners can use prototypes to get feedback and iterate on policy . Medium.
17. Mu?oz, C. (2019). Closing the gap between user experience and policy design . Medium.
18. Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method . Futures, 39(4), 341-362.
19. Klein, G. (2017). Anticipatory Thinking . Small Wars Journal.
20. Marshall, A. C., Wilkins, S., & Bennett, F. (2022). Story thinking for technology foresight. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1583.
21. World Health Organization. (2022). Imagining the future of pandemics and epidemics .
22. Krishnan, A., Fuller, T., Bhardwaj, A. (2022). United Nations Development Plan – Foresight Playbook. UNDP.
23. Rohrbeck, R., & Schwarz, J. O. (2013). The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(8), 1593-1606.
24. van der Steen, M., van der Duin, P., van Essen, T., Kuosa, T., & van Nunen, J. (2022). Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust, organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy . Foresight, 14(4), 286-306.
25. Hines, A. (2016). Let’s talk about success: A proposed foresight outcomes framework for organizational futurists . Journal of Futures Studies, 20(3), 35-52.
26. Iden, J., Methlie, L. B., & Christensen, G. E. (2017). The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 116, 87-97.
27. Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C. K. (1994). Competing for the Future . Harvard Business Review.
28. Simeone, L., Secundo, G., & D’Ippolito, B. (2022). The potential of design-driven foresight to support strategy articulation through experiential learning . Futures, 141, 102866.
29. Rohrbeck, R., Leher, L. A., Lorenz, E., & Willert, M. (2017). Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 214-224.
30. B?rjeson, L., H?jer, M., Dreborg, K. H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide . Futures, 38(7), 723-739.
31. Keeler, L., Feeley, M., Skirpan, M., Vervier Kassing, S., & Pierce, J. M. (2019). The Future of Aging in Smart Environments: Scenarios of 2050. Designing with and for User Communities in a More Just World .
32. Bisht, P. (2019). Decolonizing Futures: Exploring Storytelling as a Tool for Inclusion in Foresight . OCAD.
33. Toyama, K. (2015). Technology as amplifier in international development . Proceedings of the 2011 iConference (pp. 75-82).
34. Gault, F. (2018). Defining and measuring innovation in all sectors of the economy: Policy relevance . Research Policy, 47(3), 617-622.
35. Swart, R. J., Raskin, P., & Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis . Global environmental change, 14(2), 137-146.
36. Riedy, C. (2017). The critical futurist: Richard Slaughter’s foresight practice . Journal of Futures Studies, 22(2), 25-46.
37. Guston, D. H. (2010). The anticipatory governance of emerging technologies . Journal of Korean Vacuum Society, 19(6), 432-441.
38. Vidergor, H. (2023). Teaching futures thinking literacy and futures studies in schools . Futures, 146, 103055.
39. Schweitzera, N., Hofmannb, R., & Meinheitc, A. (2023). Strategic customer foresight: From research to strategic decision-making using the example of highly automated vehicles . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 179, 121627.
40. MacKay, R. B., & Stoyanova, V. (2016). Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the future of Scotland and the UK . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 106, 89-103.
41. Robinson, D. K. R., Schoen, A., Bozeman, B., Joshi, S., Campbell, D., & Gabriel, M. (2021). Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 166, 120629.
42. Vesnic-Alujevic, L., Muench, S., & Stoermer, E. (2023). Reference foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040 . Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Publications Office of the European Union.
43. Bor, S., O'Shea, G., & Hakala, H. (2023). Scaling sustainable technologies by creating innovation demand-pull: Strategic actions by food producers . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 179, 121621.
44. Geels, F. W., Berkhout, F., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2016). Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions . Nature Climate Change, 6(6), 576–583.
45. Gaziulusoy, A. I., & Brezet, H. (2015). Design for system innovations and transitions: a conceptual framework integrating insights from sustainability science and theories of system innovations and transitions . Journal of Cleaner Production, 108, 558-568.
46. Geels, F. W. (2004). From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory . Research policy, 33(6-7), 897-920.
47. Moradi, A., & Vagnoni, E. (2018). A multi-level perspective analysis of urban mobility system dynamics: What are the future transition pathways? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 126, 231-243.
48. López, A. E. A., Cajiao, M. C. R., Mejía, M. P., Durán, L. F. P., & Díaz, E. E. E. (2019). Participatory design and technologies for sustainable development: an approach from action research . Systemic Practice and Action Research, 32(3), 303-317.
49. Rhisiart, M., Miller, R., & Brooks, S. (2015). Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 124-133.
50. Miller, R. (2006). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method . Futures, 38(4), 341-362.
51. Kok, K., Rothman, D. S., & Patel, M. (2005). Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development . Futures, 37(10), 1205-1222.
52. Kazemier, E. M., Damhof, L., Gulmans, J., & Cremers, P. H. (2021). Mastering futures literacy in higher education: An evaluation of learning outcomes and instructional design of a faculty development program . Futures, 132, 102804.
53. Kelliher, A., & Byrne, D. (2015). Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences . Futures, 70, 36-47.
54. Withycombe Keeler, L., Bernstein, M. J., & Selin, C. (2019). Intervening through futures for sustainable presents: Scenarios, sustainability, and responsible research and innovation . Socio-Technical Futures Shaping the Present, 149-166.
55. Rhisiart, M., St?rmer, E., & Daheim, C. (2016). From foresight to impact? The 2030 Future of Work scenarios . Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 203-214.
56. Kimbell, L., Durose, C., Mazé, R., & Richardson, L. (2023). Design and Policy: Current Debates and Future Directions for Research in the UK . University of the Arts London.
57. Mastio, E., & Dovey, K. (2021). Contextual insight as an antecedent to strategic foresight . Futures, 130, 102755.
58. Fu, Z., & Xia, Q. (2022). Design foresight: A design approach that marries the futurization and de-futurization . International Journal of Design, 16(2), 21-36.
59. Houston Foresight. (2023). Strategic Foresight Towards a Preferred Future , Prepared for Seattle Public Library. University of Houston.
60. Angheloiu, C. (2019). Design x Futures = Design Futures? Exploring how design futures can help span our imagination gap — a field guide and the #OneLess Design Fellowship as case study . Future Tense.
61. Candy, S., & Kornet, K. (2019). Turning foresight inside out: An introduction to ethnographic experiential futures . Journal of Futures Studies, 23(3), 3-26.
62. Burdick, A. (2019). Designing futures from the inside . Journal of Futures Studies, 23(3), 27-44.
63. Kononiuka, A., & Glińska, E. (2015). Foresight in a small enterprise: A case study . Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, 971-976.
64. Silva, C., Daoust, T., van den Bosch, C., Munoz, B., Wunderlich, R., & Wyborn, C. (2021). Preparing for an uncertain future: Merging the strategic foresight toolkit with landscape modeling in northeast Minnesota’s forests . Ecology and Society, 26(3).
65. Clemens, R. (2009). Environmental scanning and scenario planning: A 12 month perspective on applying the Viable Systems Model to developing public sector foresight . Systemic Practice and Action Research, 22(4), 249-274.
66. Hall, S., Workman, M., Hardy, J., Mazur, C., Anable, J., Powell, M., & Wagner, S. M. (2022). Doing business model innovation for sustainable transitions–bringing in strategic foresight and human-centered design . Energy Research & Social Science, 88, 102504.
67. Kornet, K. W., & Candy, S. (2019). Turning foresight inside out: An introduction to ethnographic experiential futures . Journal of Futures Studies.
68. Mortensen, J. K., Larsen, N., & Kruse, M. (2021). Barriers to developing futures literacy in organisations . Futures, 127, 102665.
69. Dewar, J. A. (2002). Assumption-based planning: A tool for reducing avoidable surprises . Cambridge University Press.
70. Conway, M. (2021). An integrated frame for designing conversations about futures . Journal of Futures Studies, 25(3), 25-44.
71. von der Gracht, H. A., Vennemann, C. R., & Darkow, I. L. (2010). Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development . Futures, 42(4), 380-393.
72. Camrass, K. (2022). Regenerative Futures: Eight Principles for Thinking and Practice . The Regenerative Practitioner.
73. Melnikovas, A. (2018). Towards an explicit research methodology: Adapting research onion model for futures studies . Journal of Futures Studies, 22(3), 29-40.
74. Walls, A. (2021). The value of futures design: Pilots, experiential futures, and shaping a better world . Nordic Design Research.
75. Barbara, A., & Ma, Y. (2018). From utopia to futurescapes: Futures literacy for next generations of architects and designers . Journal of Futures Studies, 23(2), 53-70.
76. Masood, J. (2023). Stories from the future-an experiential lens on the post-pandemic landscape . Journal of Futures Studies.
77. Daffara, P. (2020). Applying the futures wheel and macrohistory to the Covid19 global pandemic . Journal of Futures Studies, 25(2), 127-136.
78. Christophilopoulos, E. (2021). Special relativity theory expands the futures cone’s conceptualisation of the futures and the pasts . Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 27-46.
79. Gomes, N. P., & Cantú, W. A. (2021). The curiouser nature of trends: A process thesis of sociocultural trend developments in iterations of mindsets and practices . Journal of Futures Studies, 26(1), 47-62.
80. Hyzy, M. (2022). Foresight is essential for product development professionals . Foresight Matters.
81. Calof, J., & Colton, B. (2024). Developing foresight that impacts senior management decisions . Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
82. Moqaddamerad, S., & Ali, M. (2024). Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning . Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
83. Spitz, R. (2020). The future of strategic decision-making . Journal of Future Studies, 24(3), 57-74.
84. Ramos, J., Uusikyla, I., & Luong, N. T. (2020). Triple-A governance: Anticipatory, agile and adaptive . Journal of Future Studies, 24(3), 75-90.
85. Spencer, F. (2023). The future thinker’s dilemma. Medium. https://thefuturesschool.medium.com/the-future-thinkers-dilemma-f523513fb8db
86. Cowart, A. (2023). Emplotting durational stories of transformation: Braiding narrative trajectories and multicasting in transition design . Journal of Future Studies.
87. Krawczyk, E. & Slaughter, R. (2010). Like stones in the river: Understanding the nature of boundary objects in participatory futures workshops . Futures, 42(8), 839-846.
88. Bowers, A. P., & Glenday, P. (2021). Effective foresight by governments: An international view . OPSI.
89. Turner, J., Snowden, D., & Thurlow, N. (2022). The substrate-independence theory: Advancing constructor theory to scaffold substrate attributes for the recursive interaction between knowledge and information . Systems, 10(2), 38.
90. Lampert, J., & Duffner, P. (2023). Strategic foresight 2035 . 2b AHEAD ThinkTank GmbH.

#CiceroChallenge #StrategicForesight #FuturesThinking #TransitionDesign #ComplexityScience