Choices And Risk

I was driving to a meeting in LA a few weeks ago and was presented with a really interesting lesson about choices and risk.

I gave myself plenty of time to make the drive, and left early in the morning so that I missed the majority of the traffic. But in LA, that’s nearly impossible. As the traffic started to pile up I noticed an Express Lane available on the far left-hand side. As someone who has learned to value my time, I chose to pay a few dollars to expedite my trip.

I was cruising in it for a while, passing many cars in the standard traffic as you’d expect to in the paid Express Lane until it started to slow down too... Then it was stopped altogether. Meanwhile the standard line crept along and all of the progress I made was erased. As we were still stopped, I reasoned that the overall I was going slower in the Express Lane than I would have ifi I just stayed in the normal lane.

This is a moment that would make many people frustrated, paying more to get a worse result. But having given myself ample time, I didn't feel the stress and instead was able to extract this lesson.

I had certain assumptions about what the Express Lane would do for me. Based on past experiences, I unconsciously determined that getting in it was the right choice. At some level I calculated the likelihood of the different scenarios and found it reasonable that the Express Lane would be faster and worth the money.

But just because that’s what I concluded does not mean it’s guaranteed. There was risk. When you quantify the risk, you’re determining the probability that an undesirable result will occur. Sometimes you take action with lots of risk, where the upside is unlikely but impactful. In this case the risk was small but happened nonetheless.

That is calculating this all from my limited level of awareness. Had I made this drive during rush hour more often, I would have more experience and information to work with. I’d be able to better quantify the risk because I’d have more data points.

And I think that’s the overall message I’m trying to share - You need to take ownership of the choices you make. I was solely responsible for choosing to take the Express Lane, which means that I need to accept the consequences. Things don’t just happen - there’s a reason why they don’t go the way you expect them to. In taking time to understand what’s in your control, what could be done differently, and what factors are at play, you can prepare yourself to get better outcomes.