Choices

I have always been the guy that believes that staying under the radar is how you go through life. Don’t make waves because if you do they may come back and knock you down.??

I want to challenge that view and I want to start a process of sharing thoughts and ideas I have with a broader audience as I believe that I can add value to the discussion and debate we all have on a daily basis around our current experiences and what we expect in the future. Much of what I want to write about is the idea that our perceptions define our reality and in most instances our perceptions are deeply flawed.

I am the CEO and main shareholder of a Logistics company operating in South Africa. To say that the environment is tough is an understatement. Load-shedding, road blockades, looting, the 70% increase in the price of diesel since July 2021. The noise is incessant and it is an extremely challenging space to be in. One can easily be drawn into the narrative that all is lost and that the future is bound to be even worse that the present.?

Yet, if you step away from the noise and reflect we can perhaps build a different perspective. My view is that now more than ever we need to focus less on what we can’t control and redouble our efforts on what we can actively affect. We are more resilient than we think.

Your perspective alters when you realise that you have choices and those choices define you. We have the ability to choose how we relate to the disruption and chaos that is seemingly assaulting us from all sides. We can allow it to define us and to become its victims or we can use it as a lever to move forward.?

One example of many springs to mind. Back when I had hair in the late 1990’s, prime interest rates in South Africa hit over 25%. The crisis was caused by a massive withdrawal of funds from SA by foreign investors which caused the currency to depreciate and the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates to protect the long term sustainability of the economy. Any company or individual that had debt of any kind dealt with crippling interest charges that for many proved to be insurmountable. The Governor of the Reserve Bank, MJ Stals gave a talk -?https://www.bis.org/review/r980911a.pdf?- to the Insurance Brokers Council explaining the dynamics of what transpired and the steps taken by the Reserve Bank at the time to address the risks. What I find insightful is this:

- There are always crises. 25% interest rates were the R25 diesel prices of 1998. Companies and Individuals adjusted their tactics and long term strategies and rode out the crisis. More succeeded in making those adjustments than those that failed. A year later interest rates had declined by 10%.?OUTsurance was formed in 1998 proving that amidst “chaos and disruption” there is real opportunity.?

- Stals closing remarks are as true today as they were when he said them 24 years ago; “In the meantime, we should not lose confidence in the resilience of the South African economy, and in its ability to weather the current storm. Looking around the world today, we still have, even in the present adverse climate, many reasons for remaining optimistic about the medium and longer-term prospects for the South African economy. Our banking system remains sound, our financial markets operate with great efficiency, and a huge pent-up demand for goods and services needs but little encouragement to re-stimulate the economy.”

So here is our next opportunity – yes right after Covid (the universe denied our leave application). Let’s sit down, have a cup of tea and start reflecting on the choices we are making.?

“People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, make them.” ― George Bernard Shaw