Will Chinese outbound tourism reach 30% of its 2019 level in 2023?
Version fran?aise de cet article : https://urlz.fr/kOSc ?
Some people think that Chinese tourism won't reach its previous level until 2025, when the world's aviation traffic will return to normal. (See, for example, Richard Arzt's post on Slate.fr titled, "China tourism is still far from having recovered its former scale ," in which I had a great time conversing with the author.)
Because of this, many overseas destinations are hesitant to prioritize Chinese tourism beginning in 2023, preferring instead to concentrate on the domestic market, medium-haul travel, and, starting in the summer of 2022, the United States. This caution, however, could be overturned more swiftly than anticipated by three cross trends.
1/ Will Chinese tourism have to wait until 2025 to return to normal like international air traffic?
An air sector that will gradually get going again
Experts predict that we won't get back to normal until 2025, despite the fact that the summer of 2022 was highly profitable on the way to the air traffic scenario of 2019. This projection about Chinese tourists is very accurate for the holiday week of New Year's Eve 2023. In fact, the examination of their top five holiday destinations—Hong Kong, Macao, Thailand (Bangkok), Singapore, and Thailand (Phuket), in that order—shows that their long-distance trips will have to wait a little longer.
International airlines are, nevertheless, gradually putting this return to 2019's circumstances into preparation. It is not that starting on July 1, 2023, 法航 will service Beijing once a day (instead of once a week at the moment) and Shanghai. Rather, it is that, like its worldwide competitors, Air France is progressively restoring its network at a level "now near to that of before the crisis" (three weekly rotations since February 3).
中国国航 , China Eastern , and 南方航空 , the three largest Chinese airlines, reported a 100 billion Yuan (13 billion €) deficit in 2022. These airlines are now progressively restructuring and hiring again. And all of this in anticipation of the May 2023 holidays, which may mark the start of a genuine recovery in Chinese tourism abroad.
...and in January 2023, experiencing less traffic than anticipated
Expect a sluggish recovery with a sizable lag period for international destinations, especially those that weren't Chinese tourists' top picks in 2019. In this environment, they anticipate that Chinese tourists' visits will only account for 10% to 20% of what they did in 2019. As an illustration, Indonesia plans to welcome 255,000 Chinese visitors in 2023, which is 13% more than in 2019.
Similar caution is used in Europe. This has just been proven in Switzerland by the frequency of flights from China. In fact, if the low passenger numbers on Chinese flights are any indication, 中国国航 canceled the first rotations for three years on January 26 and February 2, 2023, at Geneva Airport. China's tourism to Switzerland was not expected to surge right away, according to Switzerland Tourism. A "very challenging start-up phase ," according to his spokesperson Markus berger might extend until the summer or even the fall of 2023.
2/ The three patterns that can indicate that Chinese tourism will resume its previous levels before 2025
1/ The strength of Chinese domestic tourism recovery for Chinese New Year
If, as mentioned above, the resumption of international flights by the Chinese is timid, the month of January 2023 showed, on the occasion of the Chinese New Year holidays, a strong rebound in Chinese domestic tourism, according to the Qunar agency:
The first four days of the Chinese New Year holiday in 2023 will include the following dates, per Global Times, citing Trip.com:
The participation of significant Chinese digital companies, the BATXs, who both set and follow the trends of Chinese digital tourism, is evidence of this uptick in domestic travel in China.
In this regard, Ada XU 徐玥 , the European director of Fliggy , described the Chinese population in Europe as a "neglected market" and made a "world cup " offer in 2022 for them. The Chinese expatriates in Europe were allowed to see the French team because their national team was not present in Qatar. By developing an offer that may be used for the Olympic Games in the context of a direct engagement with tourism locations, Fliggy has thereby capitalized on the interest of the Chinese in sport and large events.
Dans ce cadre, Alibaba Group / Fliggy 飞猪 a proposé en 2022, une offre ??coupe du monde ?? pour les Chinois installés en Europe, une "cible négligée" selon Ada XU , la directrice Europe de Fliggy. En l'absence de leur équipe nationale au Qatar, les Chinois installés en Europe ont pu suivre l'équipe de France. Fliggy a ainsi misé, ainsi, sur l'intérêt des Chinois pour le sport, pour les grands évènements en testant une offre qui pourrait servir pour les JO dans le cadre d'un rapport direct avec les destinations touristiques.
During the Chinese New Year 2023 celebrations, there will also be 腾讯 / Weixin/WeChat , a distinct BATX from 阿里巴巴集团 / Fliggy that offers a different business model. In contrast to the placement of Fliggy indicated above, the faithful Tencent group, in addition to WeChat Pay and mini-programs, promotes and facilitates the films or photographs shared on its platform. This is done in addition to a tradition of rarely dealing with tourist places live. WeChat Channel offers celebrities (singers, football players, etc.), KOLs, global locations, and visitors the chance to submit videos in order to grow their exposure among Chinese consumers thanks to its 1.2 billion members. WeChat issued a request for content from its users to submit photographs of... Beijing or elsewhere in China the 2023 New Year's festivities.
WeChat's request for entries reads, "We're hoping to see the greatest images from your holiday in Beijing and beyond, whether you're a professional photographer or just capture a few snapshots here and there. Share it with us! and we'll then share it to other readers!
The photographs and videos that Chinese tourists from Thailand uploaded on WeChat / Moments starting on January 9 were an indication that Chinese foreign travel to the land of smiles had resumed.
2/ The way popular Chinese tourist locations, particularly in Asia (Thailand) and Europe (France), use the Chinese New Year celebrations to honor the pleasant experiences of Chinese visitors.
Whether in Asia or Europe, the tourist hotspots for Chinese visitors are frequently those where the New Year celebrations are the biggest. Keeping in mind that there is frequently a correlation between China's connections with a nation, the significance of the Chinese diaspora there, and the significance of Chinese travel to that nation relative to the area in which it is situated.
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The greatest Chinese community in Thailand is gathered in Yaowarat, which is located in Asia. Yaowarat is a top tourist destination worldwide, particularly during the Chinese New Year festivities.The Tourist Authority of Thailand claims that the Kingdom will host one of the five largest Chinese New Year celebrations in the world in 2023, though it will probably be 2024 before Chinese New Year visitor numbers are comparable to those of 2019. "Our primary source of economic growth is Chinese visitors. They are back this year, and based on my predictions, business will be just as strong as it was prior to the pandemic, said Nutthaporn, a chef at a restaurant on Yaowarat.
Thailand expects a tourism boom as a result of the first Chinese tourists who have returned home, as Chinese tourism is set to retake the lead in Thailand's tourism industry . Thailand is where it is, even if Chinese tourists' return there is currently very cautious. "It's been three years since we left China," says Kiki Hu, a 28-year-old Chinese entrepreneur who decided to spend the weekend in Krabi on Thailand's southwest coast. "We may now leave and spend the holidays here . I'm moved and filled with joy."
Chinese visitors to Thailand increased in January 2023 , a far cry from the 10 million visitors they had in 2019. (from 30,000 to over 80,000).Thailand became the most popular destination for Chinese travelers, with a 350% surge in searches for foreign locations after the new policy was implemented, according to Mafengwo, an online travel platform. The number of immediate searches for resort hotels in Thailand surged by 200% , with the biggest instant search volumes occurring in Bangkok and Chiang Mai.
Given that France's Chinese diaspora is among the very earliest in its region, it shares a similarity with Thailand.As they do every year, various government officials used the occasion of the Chinese New Year celebration to highlight the historical, cultural, and touristic connections between the two nations.
During a ceremony to mark the New Year of the lunar calendar, the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, praised the vibrancy of the Asian diasporas in France. "140,000 labourers who traveled from China to aid in the French war effort during the First World War and aid in our nation's resistance. Many stayed in France during times of peace to start new lives there, laying the groundwork for "the largest Chinese diaspora in Europe today. And among the 2,000 Chinese student-workers who arrived in France between 1919 and 1920 to work in French companies, many of them in Paris, Grenoble, and Montargis, are names who have left an indelible mark on 20th-century history, like Deng Xiaoping and Zhou Enlai, " Mr. Macron concluded.
At the Ile-de-France regional hotel, Ms. Valérie Pécresse, Paris Region president, gave her greetings for the Chinese New Year.
During her visit to China in June 2018, Mrs. Valérie Pécresse inked a partnership between the CRT and Fliggy, an Alibaba subsidiary, to advance the Paris Area in accordance with three axes ( Visit Paris Region , press release )
Fran?ois-Henri Pinault’s Surprise China Trip Boosts Ties With Local Government,?Retailers The whirlwind trip is taking the Kering head to Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu and Nanjing, where he has been meeting with local government officials, important landlords, making store visits and catching up with the local team. (article )
To celebrate the Lunar New Year , Ko? , a social magazine for Asian cultures and communities, joined forces with the Asian Google Network for an evening at Google Lab Arts & Culture in Paris. The event brought together more than 80 historical Ko? partners. Thanks to Qunkai (Kevin) LIU
3/ The way Chinese tourism industry players have been working hard for the past three years to get ready for this rebound.
Chinese tourist industry players who had been "trained for three years" to "embrace this day" since 2020...
Not only are international tourism sites interested in the potential of Chinese tourists returning to the world; they are also considering the strategy and budget they should implement in 2023. According to @Jiang Wen, CEO of CTrip, Chinese travel players ( CTrip , 马蜂窝旅游网 ) have been symmetrically preparing for this for three years.
.. furthered on February 6, 2023, by the reintroduction of group travel in 20 nations.
The battle plan is in place: deployment of pertinent products and itineraries, while ensuring the coordination with travel agencies in each destination to go over specific arrangements. Pilot group trips abroad in 20 countries resumed on February 6 (Switzerland and Hungary are the only European countries).
In addition to the sharp spike in reservation requests seen starting on December 27 (see letter), Ctrip reports that inquiries for group visits have multiplied by 10 since they resumed in 20 countries on February 6.
Tourist items have been used in this situation, particularly for family vacations, private vacations, and semi-self-guided vacations. Because businesses stand to benefit greatly from a rebound in Chinese outbound travel, Chinese tourism players have eagerly anticipated this development. In fact, this return of group travel to foreign destinations is a "boost" to hasten the recovery of the tourism industry, together with the return of domestic travel seen over the New Year holidays in 2023, as Zhao Wenzhi, CEO of ECWalk (The Paper), reminds us. Thanks to Yannis Pouspourikas.
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Caution on a return to normal Chinese tourism before 2025 remains in order. In an interview with CGTN, Jane Sun , CEO of Trip.com and Skyscanner , said she expects international travel from China to return to pre-Covid stability by mid-2023. Namely, airlines are only operating 11% of pre-pandemic international capacity to and from China in January, but that figure is expected to rise to around 25% by April.
La prudence sur un retour à la normale du tourisme chinois avant 2025 reste de mise. Dans un entretien à CGTN, Jane Sun , CEO de Trip.com et de Skyscanner , dit prévoir que les voyages internationaux en provenance de Chine retrouveront une stabilité pré-Covid d’ici à la mi-2023. à savoir que les compagnies aériennes n’exploitent que 11 % de la capacité internationale pré-pandémique au départ et à destination de la Chine en janvier, mais ce chiffre devrait atteindre environ 25 % d’ici avril.
Nonetheless, the Chinese New Year represents, symbolically, a significant uptick in domestic travel as well as key celebrations in prominent Chinese tourist hotspots around the globe. Also, from February 6, the resumption of Chinese group travel in 20 countries has aided in the preparation for this return of Chinese visitors to the world, for which Chinese travel industry operators have been preparing for 3 years. This viewpoint also includes the luxury market. One of the major "mega-themes" for the luxury market in 2023, according to RBC , is China's openness.RBC .Indeed, while the Chinese accounted for “a third of luxury purchases worldwide and two-thirds of these purchases were made outside of China “according to Jo?lle de Montgolfier , Bain & Company the prospects of their return in 2023 led the RBC bank to raise its growth forecast for the sector this year to 11% from 7% previously.
After a virtual non-existence of Chinese tourism in the world for the New Year, it could reach 50% of its 2019 level for the May and July August 2023 holidays, then approach 100% of the 2019 level for the the national holiday of October 1, 2023.
Will such figures allow Chinese tourism in 2023 to reach 30% of its 2019 level? This would justify for many international destinations to redo Chinese tourism as a strategic and budgetary axis from May 2023 if this is not already the case.
Founder & CEO, Group 8 Security Solutions Inc. DBA Machine Learning Intelligence
10 个月Thanks for putting this up!