China’s Zero COVID Strategy: Stairway to Heaven or Highway to Hell (Part I)

When the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in China in 2020, I started a series of opinion articles, compiling data and local experts’ opinions on the economic impact the outbreak had had on China, and later on the World economy. As the situation in Wuhan and the mainland improved, I shifted my focus onto China’s Road to Recovery. It seemed as though the CCP had found a winning strategy.

Little could anyone imagine that 2 years later (2020 II?) we would find ourselves in yet another major confrontation with COVID, yet another Coronavirus Crisis, an outbreak worse than that of Wuhan. Since the beginning of May, there have been lockdowns of some sort in more than 40 cities, affecting up about 327.9 million people Nationwide, estimates Nomura’s chief China economist Ting Lu.

Data Source: National Health Commission of China and China CDC, John Hopkins University

But this time things look very different. What was once the success benchmark in handling the pandemic has now become the root of social unrest and distress – China’s Zero COVID policy.

‘Soft’ lockdowns which keep hundreds of millions of people enclosed to their apartments or offices; ‘Silent Periods’ - jingmo (静默), when no deliveries are allowed to restrict any and all physical contact; ideological excesses, from the very top leadership down to the?‘neighbourhood committees’ - juweihui (居委会), tasked with local implementation, and sometimes doing so in ways that exceed their authority; controversial quarantine centers - fangcangs (方仓) packed with dozens of thousands of positive cases and close contacts (many of whom never tested positive); isolation policies which affect entire communities and separate parents from their children; the World Health Organization describing China’s Covid-19 controls as?unsustainable; major economic costs and growing frustration amongst the Chinese population in lockdown due to food shortages and access to medical care; barricades blocking entry and exit from residential buildings; and the list goes on.

Image Source: The Guardian / Photograph: Ding Ting/AP

China finds itself entrapped in its very own ‘1984’ Orwellian novel making it extremely hard to grasp the reality of what is going on in cities under lockdown, even for people also living in China but who are still leading their lives normally. But if you would like to have a glimpse at what is happening on the ground, here are some personal accounts out of the hundreds of stories circulating online:

A story of uncertainty from Performance Coach Janine Jakob who tested positive a few weeks ago and was left on a limbo not knowing whether she would end up in a quarantine center or not; first-hand account from entrepreneur, author and China expert Shaun Rein who also gave an honest account of what is happening; the ups and downs of runnings a small business throughout the lockdown, as told by Fabrizio Ulivi;?the story of a Nigerian student who was stranded at Shanghai’s Pudong airport for 2 weeks with no place to go or eat or sleep; a sociological transformation story of how apartment communities are coming together, told by John Darwin Van Fleet, Director of Corporate Globalization at Shanghai JiaoTong University’s Antai College; and daily Chinese social media stories and video reposts?from Janie Sun, a Global Market Researcher working at Google.

Yet despite the reality and harshness of this ‘post’ pandemic dystopian society, the rest of the world is moving on. Many countries are signaling that they can’t economically afford — or are no longer willing — to stay closed. This includes places that have maintained some of the strictest pandemic-related border controls thus far such as Australia, New Zealand and many other Southeast Asian countries like Singapore, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia.

So why is China not ‘moving on’ like the rest of the world?

China’s Societal and Healthcare Concerns

The Omicron variant has swept through China dealing a major blow to enormous economic hubs and mega metropolis. The doctor’s prescription has remained the same: mass testing, contact tracing, isolating the infected, restrictions on international and domestic travel, and lockdowns of entire cities. The system has helped China stamp out every outbreak so far but they are becoming more frequent, widespread and disrupting the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people: Xi’An, Tianjin, Jilin, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Beijing… All since the beginning of 2022 and counting.

“The huge inconveniences and difficulties imposed upon people’s livelihoods and lifestyles may be turning the wheels of the Chinese policy machinery to consider some kind of policy adjustment”, China political analyst Chen Gang wrote in a February commentary for Channel News Asia.

Image Source: Der Spiegel

The government, however, insists its policies are based on science, not ideology. It acknowledges the tremendous social and economic costs, but argues it has put people over profits and saved millions of lives. Beijing’s rhetoric via foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian was clear: China’s policies point to statistical models suggesting the risk of 1.5 million deaths if controls were dropped.

Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of politics at East China Normal University, made an interesting remark on five key points which may show Beijing’s insistence is guided by science, and not ideology:

1.?????The COVID policies may enjoy institutional support, but the nearly 400 million people affected by it are not at all happy about it. Such an unpopular move would not make sense unless officials were certain that not doing so would create even an even greater problem.

2.?????China’s success in containing the initial outbreak, of saving millions of lives before vaccines were available, of restarting Chinese manufacturing and supplying the world with essential goods points to a system with a firm grasp on how to handle the outbreak.

3.?????There is a misconception that Omicron is just a ‘big flu’. But while Omicron’s case fatality rate is lower, it is more infectious and its capacity to reach vulnerable people is far greater.

4.?????Omicron will not be the last Covid-19 wave. The BA.4 and BA.5 variants are spreading globally and recently published studies indicate they are more infectious, better at evading vaccine-triggered immunity, and that previous infections may not convey protection.

5.?????Beijing foresees another Covid-19 global meltdown, and while the rest of the world drops its guard, Beijing is playing to its strength, building its capacity to test and control and creating more?closed-loop manufacturing solutions,?while holding Covid-19 surges at bay.

In a recent episode of the War on China Show, Mario Cavolo, a senior fellow at Center for China and Globalization (CCG), made another interesting remark: the world is in denial, moving on, but cases are soaring and the total amount of deaths is piling - 525 million cases and 6.28 million deaths. Given this global outlook, it is no wonder that the government seeks to reinforce its backing of the policy. The country has reported a little over 1.1 million cases and 5200 deaths from COVID-19 so far, a tiny fraction of the global toll. However, this is no excuse for some of the things that have taken place during recent lockdowns, such as patients dying from lack of medical care or denied access to public hospitals, either because they do not have a test result or hospitals are closed for disinfection.

China might have become a victim of its past success, leading to overconfidence in its controls and neglect to enforce vaccination on the older and most vulnerable part of its population. Recently scientists are also urging China to look for alternatives to its two homegrown vaccines to tackle Omicron amid concerns about their efficacy against the variant. And not only scientists emphasize a higher focus on vaccination efforts and alternatives. On May 19th, during the the 70th?Anniversary of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, J?rg Wuttke, President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, also reinforced the need to ramp up vaccination as an exit strategy for the current crisis. “Next to every COVID testing tent, you should have a COVID vaccination tent.”

Image Source: Financial Times

But how will recent lockdowns affect Chinese and International communities morale? How will these draconian measures impact China’s demographics, in particular its expat population?

I will explore more in my next article.

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This is an 8-part article series, which delves into the latest developments and impact of China′s Zero COVID Policy:

1. China’s Societal and Healthcare Concerns
2. The (Acceleration of) China’s Expat Exodus
3. The Cost of China’s Zero COVID Strategy on the Economy
4. The Cost of China’s Zero COVID Strategy on SMEs
5. The China Supply Chain Nightmare
6. The Worlds and MNC’s Exposure to China
7. Deglobalization and Decoupling: Myths and Realities
8. Updates on China’s National and International COVID Policy

*All data, images and news sources have been properly hyperlinked in the article.

#China #Coronavirus #COVID19 #ZeroCOVID #ChinaLockdown #ShanghaiLockdown #RMBMoreira