China’s ‘two sessions’: an economic watershed or more of the same?

'History may record that this year was a watershed for China, when Chinese leaders started taking the steps to change course and remove the structural obstacles to the country’s further development to become the world’s largest economy,' said the South China Morning Post.

• 'Or it may show leaders stayed their course, with the Chinese economy continuing to muddle along, trapped by its unwillingness to set its “animal spirits” free.'

'The meetings of the “two sessions” – the National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s parliament where major policies are ratified, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the government’s top political advisory group – could give strong evidence over the next two weeks of the direction China’s leaders will choose.'

'How far China is willing to go to enact the structural changes to its system that are necessary to level the playing field for private firms, both domestic and foreign, remains in question.'

• '“Xi, despite being a strong figure, does not seem to have the political will or capacity to tackle these economic issues head-on,” said Lynette Ong, University of Toronto.' -' “His power base comes from the red aristocrats (princelings) who have major stakes in the SOEs and protected sectors.”'

But, Xi's political will may be stiffened thanks to President Trump's pressure.

• Xi has to figure out the minimum he has to do to placate U.S. demands.
• Then, he has to figure out how to actually implement changes that the U.S. may closely monitor.
• Failing at that, he's back under threat.
• So, as Xi weighs special interests against U.S. actions, he could take on those interests.
• The problem for Xi, and for Chinese leaders for centuries, is getting his orders followed.

'Two Sessions' I

More articles from this issue

1. Facing slowing economic growth, China’s premier promises relief for business

2. Six key takeaways from China's annual policy blueprint

3. China’s Stimulus Muddle Deepens

4. China’s ‘two sessions’: an economic watershed or more of the same?

5. Xi Jinping Works to Stifle Dissent Amid Concerns About China’s Economy

6. FINTECH: Two Sessions Sends Strong Signals on Support for Chinese Fintech Development

7. How tea is served in the Great Hall of the People in China

8. 'Two Sessions': A rap song extolling China's annual political meeting

March 9, 2019