China’s “String of Pearls strategy” – Is it Only to Encircle India?

Image (Courtesy: Wikipedia)

The String of Pearls strategy of China has been talked about since many years. In the initial phase, many geopolitical analysts looked at it mainly from the prism of a Chinese strategy to encircle India.

However, a deeper analysis of the recent Chinese moves suggests a wider game plan. With the majority of its trade and oil supplies passing through the Malacca straits, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has been the proverbial Achilles’ Heel for China. So, apart from encircling India and China’s recently demonstrated expansionist moves (which I covered in my previous article), securing its interests in the IOR is re-defining China’s String of Pearls strategy.

In the western rim of the IOR, apart from the presence of the joint US-UK naval base in Diego Garcia and the US Seventh Fleet dedicated for IOR, the French have a base in Abu Dhabi (UAE) covering the Persian Gulf. Both the US and the French also have their separate bases in Djibouti (in Africa) covering the Gulf of Aden. In the central IOR, India has a stranglehold with its Western Naval Command (dominating the Arabian Sea, along with coverage of the Persian Gulf, South West Indian Ocean and the East African coast), Eastern Naval Command (dominating the Bay of Bengal) and the newly formed Andaman & Nicobar Joint Naval & Air Force Command (sitting pretty controlling the Malacca Straits). The Indian navy further operates in close coordination with navies of like-minded powers in the eastern rim of the IOR like Australia and Indonesia, and is now also getting a look-in to the Pacific Ocean theater with exercises with Japan and the US base in Guam. China is closely monitoring all these and looks at these rather as a countervailing String of Pearls strategy against it!

To further signal IOR dominance to China (and rub in its IOR weaknesses), the new Indo-Pacific concept was initiated to replace the existing Asia-Pacific construct, along with the Quad grouping and the proposal to include Australia in the annual showcase Malabar exercises (which includes India, US and Japan).

All of these have also been triggers for China to make its own moves in the IOR and under the garb of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) it secured long term and, in some cases, even 100-year leases of ports or investment partnerships with various countries. The BRI model to simply put, is a cheque book based debt trap diplomacy whereby cash-rich China is offering these countries loans at very low attractive interest rates, and when they are unable to repay the loan, China exercises the land concession clauses and takes over operational control of the ports and other assets!

Some examples - Myanmar (Sittwe), Thailand (financing the building of the Laem Chabang Phase 3), Laos (a dry port built), Sri Lanka (Hambantota), Bangladesh (financing a container shipping facility in Chittagong port), Pakistan (Gwadar, as part of linking the Chinese provinces of Xinxiang and Tibet to the Arabian Sea as part of the CPEC corridor), Iran (talks are rife that China will be offered the Chabahar port at India’s expense!), Djibouti (China already has built its military base there), Maldives (under the last government China had made deep inroads, but under the current ruling dispensation there, India has regained control), Nepal (with all the recent news of China weaning away Nepal from India’s orbit, they have also offered building dry ports for Nepal to use Shanghai and other Chinese ports for trade).

The Chinese game plan has clearly unraveled. It will use the Gwadar, Chabahar and Djibouti ports to get access to markets and supply lines in Europe, Africa and the Gulf countries via the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Aden, thereby reducing its current dependence on the IOR based trade and supply lines and bypassing the strategic Malacca Strait, especially in scenarios of conflicts and wars.

While this is its clear plan on the trade and oil supply front, China is also investing heavily in terms of its military objectives in the IOR as part of its overall aim to become a blue water navy like the US and Russia. It is rapidly ramping up building its own aircraft & helicopter carriers, submarines, destroyers, missile frigates, long-range reconnaissance planes, etc. Its submarines are making their rounds often in the IOR with stops at Colombo port and Karachi harbour, on their way to Djibouti.

The intent and messaging from China are clear. The String of Pearls is not just about encircling India, it’s about a revisionist and expansionist power who feels its time has already come for realizing its 100-year dream!

PS: This article is based on my personal opinion and not intended to hurt any sentiments.