CHINA’S STRATEGIC ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES UNDER THE BELT & ROAD INITIATIVE
khurshid khan
VP Business Strategic Initiatives, Program Management, Renewable Energy, Defense & Security, Intelligence Analysis, Cyber Threat, Governance (NORTH AMERICA, EMEA & Pak) at Global Vision Corporation
The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a plan that aims to link Asia with Africa and Europe via land and marine networks in order to enhance regional integration, boost commerce, and foster economic growth. China's President Xi Jinping came up with the name in 2013, gaining motivation from the idea of the Silk Road, a network of trade routes that connected China to the Mediterranean across Eurasia for generations beginning 2,000 years ago during the Han Dynasty. 'One Belt One Road' is another name for the BRI that has been used in the past. The BRI includes a 21st century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route linking China's coastal areas with south east and south Asia, the South Pacific, the Middle East, and Eastern Africa, all along the way to Europe. The Silk Road Economic Belt is a trans-continental route that connects China with south east Asia, south Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe by land. The project identifies five significant priorities:
Even nations with comparably robust state and civil society structures have had difficulty coping with the impacts of China's rapid economic and political expansion. The advanced industrial democracies of Western Europe, the United States, and Japan have all been paying increasing consideration to this matter. However, "vulnerable" nations—those where there is a significant disconnect between local capacity to handle and reduce political and economic risks and the breadth and depth of Chinese activism—face unique difficulties. The ruling class and specialists in these nations continue to lack a basic understanding of the instruments and strategies used by China in its activism and influence operations.
Chinese politicians and academics engaged in passionate discussions regarding the strategic trajectory of the nation's foreign policy, particularly in its neighborhood, prior to the 18th Party Congress in 2013. Beijing sponsored a significant work conference on "peripheral diplomacy" in October 2013. According to reports, it was the first significant discussion of foreign policy since 2006 and the first time since the People's Republic's formation that policy towards surrounding nations had been discussed. All of the key participants in the formulation of Chinese foreign policy, including the entire Standing Committee of the Politburo, were there. The main goal of peripheral diplomacy is to keep the region around China stable. It promotes regional economic integration, and hasten the development of connections and infrastructure. A new regional economic order must be established by building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
Through a comprehensive programme of economic integration, China is using OBOR to demonstrate its leadership in the region. China would operate as the standard-setter and a hub for sophisticated manufacturing and innovation within this regional production chain. Some of China's most serious economic concerns will be assisted by OBOR. The main objectives of OBOR specifically three are:
At the Central Economic Work Conference, the annual agenda-setting economic summit for decision-makers, OBOR was formally incorporated into China's national economic development strategy in 2014. Three regional development plans, including OBOR, were unveiled by Beijing. The persistent issue of unequal growth in China is being addressed through these regional development plans. A major problem for the ruling party is the disparity between rich eastern coast states and inland western areas. For instance, the inland province of Gansu, which is connected to the historic Silk Road, is five times poorer than the coastal mega-metropolis of Shanghai.
On the one hand, China sees a chance to support its home economy, and on the other, to fortify its strategic alliances with foreign nations. More than 65 nations have so far backed the Chinese programme. This makes sense given that China's investments and trade with the Belt and Road nations in 2016 totaled more than $3 trillion and $50 billion, respectively. Asia continues to be the foundation of Chinese economic involvement, with about 50% of Chinese exports going to other Asian nations. Except for India, all of the countries in South Asia have supported the initiative because they see it as an exceptional chance to extensively strengthen economic and intercultural ties. Many nations in East Europe, Central Asia, and Russia have also jumped on the Chinese bandwagon.
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In terms of business and investment, China has surpassed Russia in Central Asia (CA) since 2009; as of now, it is in charge of one-third of Kazakhstan's oil output. China's downstream investments, particularly in Central Asian Republics (CAR) refineries, will lessen those countries' reliance on Russian-refined petroleum and, therefore, the volume of trade. If China has invested more than $60 billion in energy-related projects in the CARs, it has also obtained significant energy-security guarantees from Russia. For instance, in May 2014, China and Russia agreed to a 30-year (2018-2047) deal worth $400 billion. Despite being apprehensive of China's presence in its backyard, Russia has worked with China despite Western sanctions against it that were imposed by the US during the Obama administration.
Africa is the continent with the fastest economic development in the world and a new pole of global economic growth. It is a significant force in the democratic reform of international relations. The Chinese leader predicted that by 2025, the $200 billion in yearly commerce between China and a resource-rich Africa will quadruple. China has made significant investments in Africa's mining, telecommunications, infrastructure, and energy industries. Despite the fact that more than a million Chinese are currently living in Africa and despite growing criticism of China as a neocolonialist power, Africa has sought China more intensely than any other country during this period of African history. The greatest infrastructure undertaking since Kenya's independence, a $4 billion Chinese-built railway was inaugurated in Kenya on May 31, 2017.
??????????????????????????The Strategic Community's Reactions
On the BRI, the strategic elite has developed a variety of viewpoints. The Marshall Plan, which created the US as a "bona fide super power" after the conclusion of World War II, and the BRI share similarities, according to Chen Dingding and associate editor of the Diplomat Shennon Tiezzi. However, nine Chinese scholars, including Prof. Ze (2014) of the China Institute of International Studies, have criticized Western criticism of the initiative and have argued that the "Belt and Road" policy falls under the same guidelines referred to as the "Three Nos," which are:
They contend that the Marshall Plan had political objectives, which led to NATO's creation and eventually the Cold War with the Soviet Union. The project's ambition to cover the entire planet and potential economic worth of up to US$21 trillion makes it greater than the Marshall Plan.
China is anticipated to invest over US$1.7 trillion on the BRI initiative. Will this enormous idea be realized, fulfilling not only the dreams of China but also those of many other nations and people? Will it trap the developing countries in a Chinese debt trap? Or will it spark geostrategic conflicts all across the world and a cold or hot conflict with the last remaining superpower?
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