China’s Policy for Central Asia: Lessons from Southeast Asia & More

The recent establishment of the Secretariat for the China-Central Asia Mechanism represents a key step taken by China and five Central Asian nations, namely, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, to “comprehensively promote [their] cooperation”—a goal stated in the Xi’an Declaration signed by these countries during a summit held last May in Xi’an, the eastern terminus of the ancient Silk Road.?

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In a congratulatory letter, Chinese Foreign Minister WANG Yi expressed the country’s wish to, inter alia, “bring more benefits to the people of [China and the five Central Asian nations]”.? This wish is especially welcome amidst the world’s growing concerns that poverty and social marginalization might have contributed to the rise of terrorist activities in Central Asia.? How can China turn this wish into reality?? A recent survey showing Southeast Asians’ unprecedented level of support for China provides some useful lessons for reference.

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The Survey in Southeast Asia

In early April, the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore released its report titled The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey, which illuminates “the prevailing attitudes among those in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues”.?

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A total of 1,994 respondents from ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (“ASEAN”)—Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—participated in the survey.? Most respondents are affiliated with the private sector (33.7%), the government (24.5%), or “academia, think-tanks, or research institutions” (23.6%).? Other respondents work with “civil society, organizations, or media” or “regional or international organizations”.

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When asked which country they would choose if ASEAN was forced to align itself with China or the United States, 50.5% of the 1,994 respondents chose China, with the remaining 49.5% opting for the United States.? In a similar survey conducted in 2023, the corresponding percentages were 38.9% and 61.1%, respectively.?

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The preference for China is most evident among respondents from Brunei (70.1% choosing China), Indonesia (73.2%), Laos (70.6%), Malaysia (75.1%), and Thailand (52.2%).? The survey team attributes China’s popularity among these respondents to their countries’ ability to benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative (“BRI”) as well as “robust trade and investment relations” with China.

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With the majority of respondents from the remaining five ASEAN countries noting their preference for ASEAN to align with the United States—namely, Cambodia (55.0%), Myanmar (57.7%), the Philippines (83.3%), Singapore (61.5%), and Vietnam (79.0%)—the fact that China received, for the first time since such survey was conducted in 2020, an overall rating higher than the United States suggests that China’s use of the BRI and trade/investment relations to bring benefits to people in the ASEAN region has been quite effective.?

Same Approach in Central Asia?

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• At the China Development Forum 2024 concluded on March 25, 2024, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, expressed optimism about China’s economic growth.? She said, “In the medium-term, China will continue to be a key contributor to global economic growth.”
• Interestingly, the first inter-city electric air-taxi demonstration flight between two key cities in Guangdong Province, i.e., Shenzhen and Zhuhai, marks a milestone in the development of China’s “low-altitude economy”.?

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