China's "Military Drills" Around Taiwan: A Show of Force and Its Implications

In a significant display of military might, China has launched two days of large-scale military drills around Taiwan following the inauguration of Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te. These exercises, named "Joint Sword-2024A," are seen as a "punishment" for what Beijing perceives as separatist acts by Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a stern warning against external interference [1].

Background

The relationship between China and Taiwan has been fraught with tension for more than half a century. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), has been governed independently since 1949. However, Beijing views the island as a renegade province that must eventually be reunified with the mainland by force if necessary.

The recent May 20th election of Lai Ching-te, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan (DPP), has further strained relations. Lai, who succeeded Tsai Ing-wen, is seen by Beijing as a staunch supporter of Taiwanese independence. His inauguration speech, which reaffirmed Taiwan's sovereignty and called for an end to Chinese intimidation, was met with strong condemnation from Beijing.

The DPP, founded in 1986, has been a significant force in Taiwan's push for democracy and independence. The party emerged from the Tangwai movement, which opposed the authoritarian rule of the Kuomintang (KMT) and advocated for political liberalization and human rights [2] [3] [4]. The DPP's platform includes the establishment of Taiwan as a sovereign, independent nation, a stance that has consistently put it at odds with Beijing [5] [6].

Military Drill Details

The drills began on May 23, 2024, involving joint operations from China's army, navy, air force, and rocket force [7]. The exercises are occurring within the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, including areas near Taiwan's outlying islands, such as Kinmen and Matsu [8]. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed a significant number of military assets, including J-20 and J-16 fighter aircraft, Type 052D destroyers, Type 071 amphibious transport docks, Dongfeng series ballistic missiles, and PHL-16 Multiple Rocket Launch Systems (MRLS) [9].

The drills aim to simulate strikes on high-value targets, practice blockade techniques, and test the PLA's readiness to seize and control key maritime areas. This show of force is intended to demonstrate China's growing military capabilities and determination to assert control over Taiwan after an independent democratic election [10].

Reactions and Implications

Taiwan's government has condemned the drills as provocative and destabilizing. In response, Taiwan's Defense Ministry has deployed its military forces, including aircraft, navy vessels, and coastal missile systems, to monitor and respond to the PLA's activities [11]. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has reaffirmed its commitment to defending its sovereignty and democracy [12] [13]. These actions have been so provocative that even Taiwan’s more Beijing-friendly Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT), believes the PLA should show more restraint [14].

Internationally, the United States and its allies have expressed concern over the drills, reiterating their support for Taiwan's security [15]. The U.S. Navy's USS Ronald Reagan is conducting operations in the Philippine Sea concurrently with the Chinese drills, highlighting the region's strategic importance [9].

Analysis

Experts believe that these drills are part of China's broader strategy to coerce Taiwan and deter any moves toward formal independence. The exercises also serve as a demonstration of China's military readiness and its willingness to use force if necessary. However, the drills have not escalated to a full military blockade of Taiwan at this stage [18].

The situation remains tense, and the potential for further escalation cannot be ruled out. Analysts suggest that Beijing may continue to increase its military pressure on Taiwan, potentially leading to more frequent and larger-scale exercises in the future.

The comparisons between China's Drills around Taiwan (May 2024) and Russia's Drills Around Ukraine (February 2022) are somewhat similar. These can be reviewed through the key aspects below. This section will repeat itself to highlight similarities between the two exercises.

Scale and Scope

China's Drills Around Taiwan (May 2024)

• Duration and Timing: The drills began yesterday, May 23, 2024, and are expected to last for two days.
• Forces Involved: The exercises involved joint operations with China's army, navy, air force, and rocket force, which comprised approximately 4,000 PLA service people. Specific assets included dozens of warplanes, destroyers, escort ships, and coast guard vessels. Taiwan's Defense Ministry detected 49 Chinese military aircraft, 19 navy vessels, and seven China Coast Guard ships operating near the island [19].
• Geographical Scope: The drills encircled Taiwan, including areas in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan's outlying islands such as Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin [20].
• Objectives: The exercises aimed to test the PLA's capabilities to "seize control of crucial areas," simulate strikes on high-value targets, practice blockade techniques, and assess readiness for joint operations [21].

Russia's Drills Around Ukraine (February 2022)

• Duration and Timing: The drills, known as "Allied Resolve 2022," began on February 10, 2022, and lasted for ten days [22].
• Forces Involved: The exercises included around 30,000 Russian troops, Spetsnaz special operation forces, fighter jets, Iskander dual-capable missiles, and S-400 air defense systems. The drills also involved naval exercises in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov [23].
• Geographical Scope: The drills took place in Belarus, near the Belarusian border with Ukraine, and involved naval exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which are on Ukraine's southern flank [24].
• Objectives: The exercises aimed to practice "repelling external aggression," protect the border, block delivery channels for weapons and ammunition, and prepare for potential military operations against Ukraine [25].

Geopolitical Context

China's Drills Around Taiwan (May 2024)

• Political Context: The drills responded to the inauguration of Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing condemns as separatists. The exercises were framed as a "punishment" for separatist acts and a warning against external interference [1].
• Historical Tensions: China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out using force to achieve reunification. The drills are part of a broader strategy to coerce Taiwan and deter moves toward formal independence.

Russia's Drills Around Ukraine (February 2022)

• Political Context: The drills were conducted amid escalating tensions and fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia had amassed over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, and the exercises were seen as a show of force and a preparation for potential military action [22].
• Historical Tensions: Russia has long viewed Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence and has opposed Ukraine's moves towards closer ties with NATO and the European Union. The drills were part of a broader strategy to pressure Ukraine and its Western allies [24].

Objectives and International Reactions

China's Drills Around Taiwan (May 2024)

• Objectives: The drills aimed to demonstrate China's military capabilities, test readiness for joint operations, and send a strong message to Taiwan and its international supporters [7][10].
• International Reactions: The United States and its allies expressed concern over the drills, urging China to act with restraint. The U.S. Navy's USS Ronald Reagan is operating in the Philippine Sea simultaneously with the Chinese drills [9].

Russia's Drills Around Ukraine (February 2022)

• Objectives: The drills aimed to practice defensive operations, protect the border, and prepare for potential military action against Ukraine [26]. They were also intended to apply psychological pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies [27].
• International Reactions: The drills were met with significant concern from Ukraine, the United States, and NATO allies. They were seen as provocative and a potential precursor to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine [24].

Both China's and Russia's military drills are significant shows of force aimed at pressuring neighboring regions and deterring external interference. Ukraine and Taiwan are considered to have always been within Russia and China's perspective spheres of influence. These drills directly stem from the perceived existential threat of lasting and ever-strengthening ties to liberal order, such as AUKUS and US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Security pacts with Taiwan, and Ukraine's moves towards closer ties with NATO and the European Union [28] [29].

With a "practice" blockade already established through the May 23rd-24th drills, what will prevent the PLA from closing the gaps along the Taiwan Strait and creating a permanent blockade in preparation for a long-term siege/invasion of Taiwan?

The situation remains tense, and the potential for further escalation cannot be ruled out. Analysts suggest that Beijing may continue to increase its military pressure on Taiwan, potentially leading to more frequent and larger-scale exercises in the future.

Summary

China's recent military drills around Taiwan are a significant development in the ongoing tensions between the two sides. While the exercises are intended as a show of force and a warning against separatist activities, they also highlight the fragile state of cross-strait relations and the potential for conflict in the region. As the world watches closely, the actions of both China and Taiwan and the responses from the international community will be crucial in determining the future stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

As my first article on LinkedIn, let me know how I did and what you think will happen in the coming days. Will the PLA relinquish its newly established hold on Taiwan, or will they fortify it in preparation for a longer drill?

The MQ-28 Ghost Bat is a potential asset in naval aviation's future. Check out my project, where I describe a high-level redesign of an MQ-28 Ghost Bat for naval operations in preparation for a conflict in the South Pacific. Section 12 covers a specific Wargame Scenario in the South Pacific, which I hope does not play itself out at any point in the future.