China's Four-Year Strategy: Preparing for a Second Trump Term
Over the past four years, China has methodically prepared for the possibility of a second Trump administration, crafting policies to navigate potential challenges in U.S.-China relations under continued "America First" policies. This preparation has involved bolstering economic resilience, expanding global partnerships, enhancing military readiness, and strategically positioning itself as a global leader.
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1. Economic Resilience and Self-Reliance: The Dual Circulation Strategy
During Trump's first term, China's economy faced significant disruption due to trade wars and technology sanctions. In response, Beijing introduced the?"Dual Circulation"?strategy in 2020. This approach aimed to reduce dependence on external markets by boosting domestic consumption and innovation while maintaining an open approach to international trade.
President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for economic self-sufficiency, stating: "Self-reliance is the foundation of the struggle for the Chinese nation to stand on its own among the nations of the world, and indigenous innovation is the only way for us to climb the world's technological peaks."?(CSIS China Power)
In practice, China invested heavily in critical technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy. When the U.S. cut off semiconductor supplies to Huawei, China responded by accelerating investments in domestic chip manufacturing, with the government providing billions in subsidies to companies like SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation).
China also strengthened its internal supply chains to ensure that future economic confrontations would not disrupt its critical industries. For example, the Made in China 2025 initiative aimed to increase China's self-sufficiency in high-tech sectors, reducing reliance on foreign technology.
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2. Strengthening Global Partnerships: Expanding Influence Beyond the West
While the U.S. adopted a more isolationist approach under Trump, China filled the vacuum left by diminishing American influence. Through initiatives like the?Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China invested in infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, strengthening economic and diplomatic ties.
China also played a key role in forming the?Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest trade bloc, which includes 15 Asia-Pacific nations. The RCEP represented a significant win for China, demonstrating its leadership in regional trade and economic integration.
Beijing's strategy extended to Europe as well. During a period of strained U.S.-EU relations, China signed the?Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI)?with the European Union. This agreement aimed to boost trade and investment flows between China and Europe, potentially driving a wedge between U.S. and EU policies.
"China's approach is strategic and forward-looking," noted Michael Hirson, China Analyst at Eurasia Group. "While the U.S. was retreating, China was building bridges."
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3. Diplomatic Soft Power and Messaging: A Two-Pronged Approach
China employed both soft power and assertive diplomacy to enhance its international standing. Through international organisations such as the United Nations and initiatives like the?Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), China positioned itself as a proponent of multilateralism and global stability.
At the same time, China adopted a more assertive stance through?"Wolf Warrior Diplomacy."?This style, characterized by outspoken and sometimes combative responses to criticism, was embodied by diplomats like Zhao Lijian. He frequently challenged Western narratives on social media, stating in a 2021 press conference: "If the U.S. continues to create obstacles, China will not hesitate to respond in kind."
China's dual approach of soft diplomacy and assertive regionalism allowed it to maintain a strong global stance while preparing for potential confrontations with a second Trump administration.
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4. Military Readiness and Regional Security: Preparing for All Scenarios
Recognising the potential for increased U.S. military pressure, China ramped up its military modernisation. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) focused on developing?anti-access/area denial (A2/AD)?capabilities to deter U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific.
In 2023, China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, sending over 100 aircraft into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ). These maneuvers were not just about signaling to Taiwan but also a message to the U.S. that China is prepared for any scenario.
Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, remarked: "These military exercises are a calculated move by Beijing to show strength and preparedness, signaling that any aggressive actions would be met with a robust response."
Additionally, China expanded its presence in the South China Sea, constructing artificial islands with military infrastructure. This expansion solidified China's claims in contested waters, creating a strategic buffer against U.S. naval operations.
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5. Financial and Economic Manoeuvring: De-Dollarisation and Sanction Resistance
Financially, China sought to reduce its vulnerability to U.S. sanctions by promoting the internationalisation of the?Chinese Yuan. The introduction of the?e-CNY?(central bank digital currency) allowed for greater control over digital transactions, bypassing potential sanctions on traditional financial systems.
China also developed the?Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)?as an alternative to the?SWIFT?network, facilitating international transactions without reliance on U.S. financial infrastructure. This move was part of a broader effort to create a "sanctions-proof" economy.
During the 2023 BRICS summit, Yi Gang, then Governor of the People's Bank of China, advocated for using local currencies in trade among member countries, stating: "The dollar is not the only currency in the world."
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6. Public Perception and Propaganda: Building a Narrative of Strength and Stability
Domestically, China prepared its population for a prolonged rivalry with the U.S. through state media and education. The Global Times, a state-run newspaper, frequently published editorials framing the U.S. as a declining power and portraying China's rise as unstoppable.
Educational campaigns emphasised national resilience, promoting the idea that?"The East is rising, and the West is declining."?This narrative helped maintain public support for the government's strategies, even if U.S.-China tensions led to economic or diplomatic challenges.
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A Ready China Awaits
China's strategy over the past four years demonstrates a calculated approach to global politics. Its multifaceted preparation, combining?economic fortification,?diplomatic outreach,?military readiness, and?financial hedging, showcases a nation ready for any geopolitical scenario.
If Trump were to return to the White House, he would encounter a China that is not only better prepared but also increasingly confident on the world stage. As Bonnie Glaser aptly summarised, "China has learned from its experiences with Trump. The next chapter of U.S.-China relations will be on Beijing’s terms as much as Washington’s."
This readiness highlights China's long-term vision of positioning itself as a stable and indispensable global power, regardless of the twists and turns of American politics.
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