China's eastern plot - Do we have a counter strategy?

In view of the recent Doklam controversy has put the spotlight right in important section of siliguri sector and made timely change to government policy from "dissuasive" to "deterrence". taking a view from this new position of strength there are few lessons which are to be learnt when at is out of the bag for the world to see regarding " Chinas peaceful rise". Question to refocus is are we really following our policies for "looking east " and if at all what are we looking at what we need to learn, understand and act. From the jingoistic rhetoric and upscale propaganda during the din of the standoff it must be clear to all that the trajectory of the Sino -Indian strategic relations is intersecting. There is little time to rejoice and very soon we may have a series of standoffs leading to a conflagration at hand and at a time we least expect.

The Emergence of the Chinese Global Business Policy is indeed a matter of serious concern regarding the National Security of its neighbours in South and South East Asia. China's maritime-border disputes with neighbouring states, long simmering, have intensified in recent months. The country has clashed diplomatically with the Philippines and Vietnam over the South China Sea, and with Japan over the status of the Senkaku islands (known as the Diaoyu islands in China) in the East China Sea. One reason behind the up-tick in tensions has been poor bureaucratic co-ordination and the conflicting goals of a number of government agencies in China. Outright militarisation of the various disputes appears to be some way off. Yet the failure to make diplomatic progress has become a worrying trend, and armed clashes cannot be ruled out.

China's maritime-border disputes with neighbouring states, long simmering, have intensified in recent months. The country has clashed diplomatically with the Philippines and Vietnam over the South China Sea, and with Japan over the status of the Senkaku islands (known as the Diaoyu islands in China) in the East China Sea. One reason behind the up-tick in tensions has been poor bureaucratic co-ordination and the conflicting goals of a number of government agencies in China. Outright militarisation of the various disputes appears to be some way off. Yet the failure to make diplomatic progress has become a worrying trend, and armed clashes cannot be ruled out.

The Multi layer International Diplomatic and Military Vision of the China to increase its dominance in the south east Asia is definitely strengthening its military might along with its economic resurrection in the Superpower of controlling the South East Asia in the historical context of Admiral Zeng He  is more imminent threat to its neighbours including India as follows.

One Belt, One Road (OBOR)initiative-  In 1904 the geopolitical theorist Halford Mackinder had postulated that control over inner Eurasia would become the basis for world domination. He also predicted that if continental powers like Russia and China came together, the maritime powers would be subdued. Mackinder stated

that geopolitical dominance required both a continental as well as a maritime dimension. Alfred Mahan also had a Eurasia-centric global perspective, but his emphasis was on maritime power. China seems to be acting on the wisdom of both Mackinder and Mahan with its ambitious continental-maritime geostrategic initiative labelled ‘One Belt, One Road’. 

The belt is the continental dimension of this geostrategic initiative. It consists of a host of infrastructural projects that include a network of rail routes, overland highways and oil and gas pipelines. These will link China with Europe through Central and Western Asia. The road also has a maritime dimension and consists of a network of ports and other coastal infrastructure projects which will connect China with the South East Asian countries, Africa and Europe. It is pertinent to note here that neither the belt nor the road follows any clear geographical line. It is more of a blueprint of how China would move towards integrating its economy with the world economy and expand its influence in the regions OBOR traverses through. China is likely to benefit from the enhanced economic cooperation

fostered by OBOR, along with other regions that would also gain by cooperating in infrastructure development. The project also includes construction of international economic cooperation corridors and ports.

One Belt, One Road is a chinese initiative unveiled by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2013. Ever since, it has

been the focal point of Chinese diplomacy It consists of 2 parts:-

I. Belt : Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB)- (1)It involves land corridor connectivity from China to Central Asia and West Asia, going all the way to Europe;(2) Also includes China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and (3)the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor

ii. Road : Maritime Silk Road (MSR) - MSR involves maritime connectivity through the Strait of Malacca to India, and onwards to West Asia and East Africa

This will involve

i.                    Building physical infrastructure (highways, railways, ports in coastal nations, fibre-optic lines)

ii.                  Establish free trade zones (by coordinating customs, quality supervision, e-commerce etc)

iii.                 Increasing cultural exchange etc.

OBOR has four components, though only the economic component is generally being highlighted. The second OBOR component is security and diplomacy. As China’s economic interests transcend national boundaries and the number of Chinese citizens abroad increases, China needs to ensure the security and safety of the projects and the Chinese people beyond its borders. OBOR provides both an opportunity and challenge for China to leverage its diplomatic clout in the region and other parts of the world. Thirdly, OBOR aims to promote Chinese culture, for which China is setting up Confucius Institutes all across the world. Simultaneously, China believes that an understanding of other cultures and the integration of different cultures is very important in order to mitigate misunderstandings and create a positive image of China abroad. Finally, OBOR deals with the great-power competition between China and the US. China is using OBOR and the AIIB to assert its influence in Asia-Pacific much to the chagrin of the United Sates. The US pivot to Asia is seen by China as largely being an effort to contain it.

An ambitious programme like OBOR also needs enormous funding. Three financial institutions have been set up at China’s behest to support the programme. The first is the Silk Road Infrastructure Fund, launched in February 2014. The China-led (US)$40 billion fund invests in OBOR projects. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), founded in October 2014, is the second initiative. With 21 Asian member countries, the AIIB aims to be a global

development bank with a registered capital of $100 billion. The New Development Bank is a BRICS multilateral development bank that was established on 15 July 2014 with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as its members. The bank took off with an initial capital of $50 billion, and aspires to increase its capital to $100 billion.

It is apparent that China has managed to secure the participation of Russia in the Eurasian component of the initiative. China has attempted to fold OBOR into the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union, which currently groups together Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

 Purpose:

a.      China's aim to take a bigger role in regional & global economics and geopolitics;

b.     Invest the surplus it has accumulated;

c.      According to China it will generate trade above a jaw-dropping $2.5 trillion;

d.     Increase its export further;

e.     To help balance the economic inequities between the highly developed coastal region and under-developed interior of China;

f.       China is heavily dependent on the sea trade (~80% of crude oil imported via strait of Malacca), so wants to reduce its dependence on the Straits of Malacca, militarily dominated by the U.S;

g.      Along with AIIB it goes a long way as an outreach program;

h.     Increasing its presence in Indian ocean

i.        Can also have hidden military-strategic intentions as details are not out;

j.       It's an answer to US Pivot to asia; there are plans of Australia joining the indo-japan-US trilateral;

k.      By way of developing infrastructure in other countries it wants to Potray its benevolent/soft side as opposed to the image of growing military power involved in number of disputes’

“ The contours of Chinese MSR (Maritime Silk Route) are quickly unfolding. China has increased its both economic and military presence through this initiative. The construction of a Chinese naval base in the South China Sea did not go down well with Vietnam, Philippines, and the US. The US naval presence in the region and Washington’s policy of ‘pivot to Asia’ are viewed by Beijing as an attempt to rebalance the power equation in Asia. Beijing has characterised US involvement in the region as a containment strategy to counter China’s growing economic and political clout in the region. Furthermore, the Chinese are concerned because the Straits of Malacca constitute a vulnerable chokepoint for Chinese imports and navigational purposes, also known to the Chinese as the ‘Malacca dilemma’. By setting up a naval base in the Spratly Islands China has secured a foothold but it has also found it increasingly difficult to balance its sovereignty and maintain stability in the disputed waters.  According to Shen, an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) similar to the one created in the East China Sea, could be repeated in the South China Sea. The completion of the naval port and airstrips in the Nansha islands (Spratly islands) pushed the neighbouring countries of Philippines, and Vietnam to undertake joint military exercises with powers such as Japan and the US. China and the US do not see eye to eye on issues such as human rights, the South China Sea, the arms buildup and international cyber crimes. It seems that until China takes concrete steps to resolve issues that bedevil the relationship, the US would not accept China’s parity with itself. Xi’s diplomacy has yet to make a strong political statement with regard to the US. Xi Jinping’s September visit to the US, did assuage some differences but fell short of anything concrete. As the Chinese leadership gauges its position and power on the basis of its relations with the US, China’s proposal for a ‘new model of major-country relationship’ failed to elicit any response from Obama. Furthermore, the US has also been reluctant to accept Chinese conditions of ‘respect for each other’s core interests,’ which was viewed as a ‘blank check in Washington.

Recent events:

·        In August 2015, the SCO held its biggest joint military exercises ever in China’s Inner Mongolia province. The SCO, which had conducted largescale military exercises in the early years of its existence, of late appeared to be focusing more on economic and law enforcement issues. Russia and China conducted their first-ever joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea from 17 to 21 May 2015. The exercise, named Joint Sea 2015, involved nine ships.

·        A military base in Djibouti which is strategically located connecting Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Recently China has also signed a deal to build Free Trade Zones in the country and providing nearly $12.4 billion hat Djibouti intends to invest by 2020.

·        China has also signed a deal to develop an Industrial Park and a deep water port in Kyaukphyu in Myanmar. This facility in Bay of Bengal will help China avoid Strait of Malacca, secured by USA.

·        Maday Island Terminal and the Yanbye Island Terminal that China is building in Kyaukphyu has already added to the energy security of China as gas and oil pipeline have been laid to Chinese Yunan Province from these places.

·        China has also indicated to the revival of Colombo Port city and Hambantota SEZ project in Sri Lanka.

we conclude on various options to tackle the international bully "the Dragon" breathing fire down our necks. We see from the preceding section that the recent "not so peaceful" rise of China has a marked similarity with rise of pre-war Germany with strikingly similar rhetoric. During liberation war the leader of China Mao Tse dong was battling these very fascist forces the very character of which China has acquired after it has become a local hegemon, and all set to become a global menace.

China's "one china policy smacks of Hilter's " people of the same blood should be in the same Reich" . China's expansionism and intention to make global outreach though belt silk route and third island chain viewpoints resonate with the concept of "lavencroft" as advocated by Hitler. Strikingly similar is the development of military-industrial complex like pre-war Germany constructing the "whermacht"; along with fascinations for "wunderwaffe" wonderful weapons like Hi energy microwave beam, supersonic missile and torpedo, anti satellite missile. The Chinese state today has all the strapping's of " fourth Reich" ready wreak havoc on its neighbours, south China sea and even distant states like USA and west.

What is different this time is the preparations to conceal the intentions, and scale and depth of the design and patient preparations made.  World must take note before it is too late and its unbridled territorial ambition triggers the final and third world war. The menace is far bigger this time and stakes are higher as this is a nuclear armed state with formidable nuclear and CBRN capability.

In case of a war with Indian we must use all means necessary to prevail, including the threats which The Chinese think we are capable of like:-

(a)   Trade war

(b)  disrupting the SLOCs though Malacca straits for oil and energy supplies.

(c)   using diplomatic and political pressures to wean away Chinas allies such as we have done in Sri Lanka.

(d)  asymmetric warfare,

(e)  supporting freedom movements in Tibet, Xinxiang, Uighur regions.

(f)    Currency manipulation with help of USA.

(g)   limited military strikes.

(h)  Use of narco -terrorism and Piracy to undermine stability of China regions.

(i)     Attack the CCP rather than state of China and foster and support democratic movement.

(j)    Attack Chinas financial institutions. etc.

As our supreme strategist Achrya chankya used to stay a superior mind is not deterred by the size of the adversary and when possible use a consortium approach against this mighty enemy by a grand coalition of friendly forces. We must understand for what this state stand for it is an international tyrant and we cannot have peace by submission to it.