China's Accelerated Coal Plant Development Sparks Widespread Alarm
by Michael Megarit
China's coal power is still expanding despite government pledges. In the first half 2023, 37 GW (gigawatts) of coal power capacity was under construction. 52 GW were permitted. 41 GW were announced as new projects, and 8 GW were resurrected projects that had been shelved. Ten GW has been built already from the permitted projects.
In the second quarter, permits continued to be issued at a rapid pace. Some provinces are constructing newly-permitted power plants quickly, while others may have developers securing permits just in case and not rushing to start construction. About half of the plants that were permitted in 2022 (52 GW), had begun construction by summer 2023.
China has now built and permitted 243 GW coal-fired power plants.
If the rush to grant permits does not stop until all projects currently announced or at the pre-permit stage have been granted, 392 GW worth of new coal-fired energy capacity will be in the pipeline.
If China does not stop granting permits immediately, it will be impossible to reduce the coal-fired capacity of its power plants during the 15th Five-Year Plan without cancelling projects that have already been approved or retiring existing plants in large numbers.
Key Findings
Permitting and construction continued: Since summer 2022 the coal power plant permit spree has continued through to July 2023. In the period from January to June, construction of 37 GW new coal-fired power capacity started. 52 GW had been permitted (of which 10 GW are already in construction). 41 GW new projects have been announced and 8 GW previously shelved ones were revived. At the current rate, more than one coal-fired power plant is being built per week.
Noncompliance With Central Government Requirements The majority of new projects are not in compliance with the central government's requirements for coal permits. The provinces with the highest number of new coal projects do not support a comparable buildout in clean energy. They also have no shortages in generating capacity and enough coal power to support wind and solar capacities that are already planned and existing. This is a sign of ineffective enforcement policies that limit new project approvals.
Acceleration in Coal Power Additions Since the beginning of 2022, 152GW has been allowed and 169GW announced. This trend indicates that China has increased the amount of coal power capacity added during the current 5-year plan period (2020-25) in comparison to the two previous five-year plans.
Increase in Coal Power: China's coal capacity could rise by 23-33% compared to 2022. This would either mean a large increase in coal-fired power production and emissions or a drop in plant usage, resulting in financial losses and asset stranding.
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Implications on Future Plans: China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) will not be possible to achieve without stopping the permitting process immediately. This would mean cancelling projects that have already been approved or retiring plants earlier.
China's Energy and Coal Consumption
China is the largest energy consumer in the world and the biggest CO2 emitter. China was responsible for 30.7% of global CO2 emissions in 2022. In July 2023 mainland China had 1,142 coal-fired plants. This was significantly higher than the next country. India is second with 282 plants and the U.S. third with 210. U.S. has no plans for new coal-fired power plants, but it does plan to close about 170 remaining plants. China, on the other hand, is expanding rapidly its coal-fired energy plants. [For example, see " Contractors and Producers Draw Criticism Over the Carbon Footprint of Concrete" posted on 6/21/23].
China has issued about 50 permits, or two each week, for new coal-fired plants in the first half 2023. China currently has more than 300 coal-fired power plants under construction or permitted. China will have more coal-fired plants if all of these are constructed. China currently has more coal-fired power plants in construction than all of the other countries combined. Flora Champenois of Global Energy Monitor commented on this rapid growth, saying, "Everyone else is moving towards coal and China appears to be stepping up the gas."
Officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), give various explanations for their reliance on coal fired power plants. The increase in coal-fired power plants is attributed by some to the recent heatwaves, which increased demand for air conditioners, putting strain on the grid. Some attribute the increase to prolonged drought conditions, which have decreased hydropower supply. This includes drying up parts of Yangtze River. Some also blame the Ukraine war for driving up the price of liquefied gas, which led to a move towards coal. CCP officials also claim that the coal-fired power plants are needed to support renewable energy and provide electricity during peak times. Despite the justifications given, this rapid expansion is in contradiction to President Xi Jinping’s 2020 commitment that China would "aim for CO2 emission levels to peak by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060."
China is a leader in renewable sources of energy, including wind and solar. However, it has also increased its coal use. Many critics claim that new coal-fired power plants are built where there is no grid instability and renewable energy reliability. Moreover, certain plants are built in areas that already heavily rely on coal. Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air questioned whether China intended to meet its 2060 carbon neutrality goal.
China, while the world is moving towards coal-fired plants being reduced, has accelerated in the other direction. Its reliance on CO2 and coal emissions are increasing significantly.
About the Data
The analysis of changes in coal power project status in this briefing is based on the latest July 2023 update from Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) Global Coal Plant Tracker and historical data from 2014–2023, available upon request. In the July 2023 update, permitting dates and statuses were amended for five projects:
The GCPT is an online database that identifies and maps every known coal-fired generating unit and every new unit proposed since January 1, 2010 (30 MW and larger). The tracker uses footnoted wiki pages to document each plant and is updated biannually. GCPT is the most detailed dataset available on the global coal power fleet and has provided biannual updates on coal-fired generating capacity since 2015.