China is winning the Ukraine War

The ultimate winner of the Ukraine War is the People’s Republic of China. By staying neutral, the Chinese government takes the strongest moral and strategic position in Ukraine.

?

To explain, neutrality allows Chinese leaders to take the moral high ground and condemn the US, European, and Russian positions. In particular, the Chinese leaders can position themselves as peacemakers and the voices of reason.

?

China Takes the Moral High Ground

?

For example, the Chinese Foreign Ministry released a “Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis ” that most Americans will agree with. The official position comprises:

?

1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries.

?

2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality.

?

3. Ceasing hostilities. Because: “conflict and war benefit no one.”

?

4. Resuming peace talks. Because: “Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis. All efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be encouraged and supported.”

?

5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.

?

6. Protecting civilians and prisoners-of-war (POWs).

?

7.?Keeping nuclear power plants safe.

?

8.?Reducing strategic risks. Because: “Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought. The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed. Nuclear proliferation must be prevented and nuclear crisis avoided.”

?

9.?Facilitating grain exports.

?

10. Stopping unilateral sanctions. Because: “Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems.”

?

11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.

?

12.?Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.

?

Similarly, the?Chinese government opposes sending more weapons ?to Ukraine. Interestingly, Chinese leaders oppose arming both sides.

?

“Adding fuel to the fire will only exacerbate tensions,” China’s China’s UN Deputy Ambassador Dai Bing told the UN General Assembly on 24 February 2023. Prolonging and expanding the conflict will only make ordinary people pay an even heftier price.”

?

Hence, the Chinese government is speaking for ordinary people caught in the crossfire, when nobody else is. That is a moral and reasonable position.

?

Biden the Warmonger

?

In contrast, American leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin are doubling down on the war. For example, President Joe Biden’s (D-Delaware) remarks at the Royal Castle in Warsaw on 21 February 2023.

?

“We continue to maintain the largest sanctions regime ever imposed on any country in history,” Biden promises. “And we’re going to announce more sanctions this week together with our partners.”

?

“Let us move forward with faith and conviction and with an abiding commitment to be allies not of darkness, but of light,” Biden pontificates.

?

“We’ll hold accountable those who are responsible for this war,” Biden promises. “And we will seek justice for the war crimes and crimes against humanity continuing to be committed by the Russians.”

?

Biden takes an unreasonable position here. To explain, I think the only way to arrest Russian war criminals is to occupy Moscow. I consider that impossible because of Russia’s nuclear arsenal .

?

Moreover, even if we could eliminate Russia’s nukes, Ukraine lacks the troops to seize Moscow. I think only US, or Chinese, forces could achieve that goal.

?

China is Winning the Public Relations War

?

Thus, Biden talks lunacy, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry sounds like the voice of reason and sanity. Hence, I think no sane person will listen to Biden, but people will pay attention to the Chinese positions.

?

Sadly, the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s position mirrors my opinion of the war. I suspect most US citizens share my position.

?

For example, 47% of Americans believe US leaders should push ?the Ukrainian government to reach a peace settlement soon, a November 2022 Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll estimates. Moreover, most Americans oppose indefinite aid to Ukraine. Only 40% of Americans support indefinite aid to Ukraine, Chicago Council poll results show.

?

Furthermore, American support for the war is slipping. The percentage of Americans who want their government to force the Ukrainian government to accept a peace settlement grew from 38% in July 2022 to 47% in November 2022.

?

Moreover, only 26% of Americans thought the Ukrainians ?can win in November 2022, the Chicago Council estimates. Hence, 74% of Americans think Biden’s goals of Ukrainian victory and war crimes trials are impossible.

?

Thus, the Chinese government is winning the public relations war in the eyes of the American people. I imagine America’s image is even worse outside the US.

?

America loses the Public Relations War

?

For example, in North Africa and other regions where people depend on Ukrainian grain. Ukraine produces 10% of the world’s grain and supplies around 25% of Tunisia’s grain and 17% of Egypt’s grain , World Grain?estimates.

?

Hence, I think the Chinese position will sound reasonable to a Tunisian, or Egyptian, struggling to feed her family. Meanwhile, the US position is “let your family starve to stop Russia.”

?

I suspect British consumers who can no longer find lettuce and tomatoes at their neighborhood Tesco, will sympathize with the Tunisian or Egyptian. To explain, Britain faces a vegetable shortage because of high fuel costs and supply chain problems, The Washington Post reports.

?

Consequently, many ordinary Britons will find the Chinese position appealing. I suspect Americans will express similar opinions when they find empty shelves at their local Walmart, or Kroger.

?

America is losing the public relations war because of Biden’s rhetoric and actions. Ultimately, I think many people around the world now believe the old stereotype of “Americans as crazy warmongers who will destroy the world in the name of freedom.” Some of those people will see China as the peacemaker, which increases Beijing’s power and influence.

?

China’s Strategic Victory in Ukraine

China is winning a strategic victory in Ukraine by doing nothing and talking peace.

?

First, China appears to the be reasonable alternative to Russia, the European Union, and the United States. For example, President Vladimir Putin suspended Russian participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction, or New START , Treaty on 21 February 2023. Thus, people assume China wants peace, which makes an alliance with the People’s Republic more appealing.

?

Secondly, the war is making the Russian Federation weaker and more dependent on China. In February 2021, the Russian and Chinese governments announced a vague “unlimited partnership.” This partnership is not an alliance.

?

China Owns Russia

?

Instead, it is a mechanism for the Chinese to exploit Russia’s natural resources. For example, Russian coal exports to China grew by 11% between 2020 and 2021. China now imports 27% of Russia’s coal, 16% of Russia’s crude oil, and 8% of Russia’s ?natural gas.

?

Similarly, the value of Russian exports to China grew from $413.5 million in January 2021 to $68.029 billion ?in December 2021, Trading Economics estimates. The Chinese were extracting enormous amounts of value from Russia before the war.

?

Predictably, the situation grows worse with the war and increasing sanctions. In particular, the Chinese are forcing the Russians to accept their currency, the yuan. For example, the Yuan-Ruble trade grew from 2.22 billion yuan ($320 million) in February 2022 to 201 yuan billion ($28.9 billion) ?in December 2022.

?

China is now Russia’s most important trading partner in a relationship of pure exploitation. The Russian Federation is now totally dependent on China. For example, yuan reserves comprised 60% of Russia’s National Wealth Fund ?(NWF) on 30 December 2022. Hence, I estimate the NWF contained 778.40 billion yuan ($111.9 billion) in December 2022.

?

The Kremlin is using the NWF to finance its budget deficit and war effort, Reuters reports. Cynics will say Chinese banks?are financing Russia’s war effort with 778.40?billion yuan.

?

Russia is a Chinese Resource Colony

?

The NWF is using the yuan because of Western sanctions. To explain, sanctions keep the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from spending or borrowing Euros, US dollars, and Pound Sterling.

?

This froze $300 billion in international reserves because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. The reserve currency is the fiat currency financial institutions use for international transactions.

?

Hence, sanctions are turning Russia into a Chinese resource colony . To explain, the Russians have to sell the Chinese natural resources for yuan to survive. This makes Russia totally dependent on China.

?

This will put Russian leaders in a difficult position when Xi Jinping asks Putin about returning some of the Chinese territory ?the Qing Emperors and the Empress Dowager gave to czars Alexander II and III in the 19th?century.

?

That territory includes the city of Vladivostok , Russia’s most important naval base in Asia, and its principal Pacific port. Hence, Russia could lose both the Primorsky Krai (Maritime Provinces) and Ukraine because of Putin’s war.

?

Ukraine is Bleeding Russia to Death

?

Moreover, every Russian soldier killed in Ukraine is one less Russia soldier defending the Primorsky Krai. The Ukraine War is destroying Russia’s military resources and its ability to defend the Primorsky Krai from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

?

Ukraine is bleeding the Russian military to death. Russian forces have lost 100,000 soldiers and sailors in Ukraine, General Mark Miley estimates. Milley is the Chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.

?

The Ukrainian military claims to have destroyed 3,350 Russian tanks , 471 Russian rocket launchers, 2,352 Russian artillery pieces, 299 Russian planes, 287 Russian helicopters, 6,593 Russian armored vehicles, 244 anti-aircraft systems, 5,215 other Russian vehicles, 2,029 Russian drones, and 18 Russian warships in a year of fighting, The Jerusalem Post?reports.

?

There is no evidence Russia has the industrial resources to replace any of that equipment. Notably, the Russians are importing shells and rockets from North Korea ?and drones from Iran.

?

The Ukraine War is a win-win-win situation for China

The People’s Republic of China could win a triple victory in Ukraine without risking a single PLA soldier’s life.

?

First, the Chinese could gain a powerful position of global leadership by simply being reasonable. If Chinese diplomats are the only ones promoting peace, people will listen to them because there is no alternative.

?

Second, the People’s Republic can strip Russia of natural resources, money, and territory with the Kremlin’s help. Putin will have no choice but to give Chinese leaders everything they want to keep his economy running.

?

Third, Chinese leaders can gain enormous leverage over Ukraine. For example, they could force Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to give the People’s Liberation Army Navy bases in Sevastopol and Odessa in exchange for a peace deal. Similarly, Chinese diplomats could demand a significant percentage of Ukraine’s grain crop and ownership of Ukrainian cropland.

?

The Chinese will be in a stronger position if the US stops or arms shipments. For example, Xi Jinping can demand massive grain imports, bases, and Ukraine’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative ?for arms or calling off the Russian invasion.

?

I predict Zelenskyy will turn to Beijing for help if US support weakens. Moreover, I suspect Zelenskyy has already privately threatened US and British leaders with the China card. If Congress tries to cut US aid to Ukraine, Zelenskyy will play the China card in public.

?

Hence, China benefits from almost any outcome of the Ukraine War. If Russia wins, it will be poor, and weak, and completely at China’s mercy. If Russia collapses, the Chinese can move in and strip its assets and territory.

?

If Ukraine wins, that country will also be poor, and weak, and at China’s mercy. A Ukraine collapse will allow the Chinese to take control of Ukrainian farmland, minerals, ports, and land corridors. Finally, the Chinese can?play Russians and Ukrainians against each other to get the best deal.

?

The Russian and American adventure in Ukraine is hastening the rise of China as the world’s superpower. Americans and Europeans need to wake up and work to end this war before China wins everything.