China warns U.S. about meddling close to China while China meddles close to the U.S.

November 21, 2019

Please note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policies or positions of TriOrient Investments, its partners, or the firms in which TriOrient Investments invests.

The United States Senate on November 19th unanimously passed a bill in support of protesters in Hong Kong while warning China against carrying out any violence against the demonstrations there. Beijing was quick to warn the U.S., should the bill become law and reiterating for the U.S. to keep clear of any involvement in the tensions there. 

On the same day,  Haiti’s President, Jovenel Moise, announced he will not resign despite months of protests calling for him to leave. Moise on his part, said he would move forward with reforms via assistance from international entities such as the Inter-American Development Bank and the government of Taiwan, while claiming that the protests are partially a plot by groups that are holding Haiti "hostage" and working to undermine his reforms.

To most, there is little connection between the two locations and events, perhaps other than the fact both locations dealing with protests begin with an 'H.' Indeed, Hong Kong is part of China, and Haiti is an independent nation. The U.S. government is interested in ensuring that democracy is not trampled upon and violence is not a method chosen by China's leaders to deal with the protesters, while Haiti's embattled president has been the target of criticism by protesters for alleged corruption and human rights abuses. And the U.S. Senate does not appear to be passing any laws in support of the protesters in Haiti, either.

However, U.S. policymakers ought not to miss how the two locations share a common problem: having to deal with Beijing's determination to warn all that what the Chinese Communist Party feels belongs to China should be clearly understood by everyone in the world, in undisputed terms. This should be particularly clear, given Moise's including a name - Taiwan - that the U.S. and many others - from the NBA to major U.S. airlines and others in many other industries - have been warned by China to be uttered or written in only ways Beijing permits.

In reality, China has been vocal about wishing to wrestle Haiti away from Taiwan and its list of official diplomatic partners. Since Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, Beijing has promised economic aid in order to grab seven Taiwan diplomatic allies, including Burkina Faso, Kiribati, Panama, Sao Tome and Principe, the Solomon Islands, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador, and get them to switch their allegiance to Beijing. The goal of Beijing is clear as China's government seeks to further isolate Taiwan in an attempt to force Taipei to the bargaining table on China's terms. Once there, Taiwan can expect to be intimidated further so Beijing can carry out reunification via a "one country, two systems" policy.

Unfortunately for China, though, such a two-tiered policy has increasingly come under question in Taiwan and globally as the Hong Kong city government's response to the protests as well as the protesters themselves turn more violent. Selling its "one country, two systems" does not appear to be in the cards for Taiwan anytime soon. At the same time, however, the Chinese Communist Party understands that the exit of a president in Haiti who is willing to work with Taiwan would provide Beijing a tremendous opportunity to influence a new set of politicians to switch its diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing. Another domino falling - particularly another one not far from the U.S. - would be helpful in weakening Taiwan's ability to remain out of China's hands.

Add to the prospects of Congressional legislation were comments on the same day at the Senate's passage of the bill by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who voiced the U.S. Trump administration's own warning: support for the inking of a trade deal between the U.S. and China would would be hard win in Washington should Beijing respond violently against the protesters in Hong Kong. The Vice President has on other occasions been even more direct in his comments towards China, even if the administration already on several occasions had to overlook some of Beijing's more problematic behavior in order to make some progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, including Beijing's continued moves to pry diplomatic allies away from Taiwan that are a direct attempt to challenge the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

Despite such forbearance, the level of Beijing's belligerence has not been lowered. While some are pointing out that the Trump administration must weigh carefully whether to vocally support the bill in Congress that supports protecting democratic freedoms in Hong Kong, China has warned of "strong countermeasures" if the bill passes in the Washington.

Such intimidation by China - whether openly expressed or vaguely implied - is, however, itself hypocritical as Beijing demands all nations stay out of China's domestic affairs while its warnings at the same time seek to influence the U.S. government's legislative and executive processes, even if the measures U.S. politicians are in support of are simply democratic values and hopes for peaceful rather than violent solutions. Beijing could simply choose to ignore whatever policies the U.S. Congress enacts. Many would argue it has continually done that over the years with regards to its ignoring international trade policies and protection of intellectual property. Instead, Beijing has chosen to flex its political and economic muscles in ways that its current generation of leaders believe are both well-earned and should not be challenged.

Washington would do well to keep Beijing's intimidation in mind. America's democratic and legislative procedures are by nature sensitive to differing views and pressures. They will thus likely come under increasing pressure by China and perhaps other one-party, authoritarian nations who seek to keep democratic debate and legislative procedures both silent and on a track that their illiberal governments demand.

References:

US Senate unanimously passes Hong Kong human rights bill: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Hong-Kong-protests/US-Senate-unanimously-passes-Hong-Kong-human-rights-bill

Pence Warns Trade Deal ‘Very Hard’ If Hong Kong Uses Violence: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-19/pence-says-hong-kong-violence-would-make-trade-deal-very-hard

Beijing targets Haiti as bid to isolate Taiwan from its diplomatic allies heads to the Caribbean: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027176/beijing-targets-haiti-bid-isolate-taiwan-its-diplomatic-allies

Nauru stands with Taiwan, Haiti might be next to turn to China: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3785596

Isolated Diplomatically by China, Taiwan Is Finding Friends in Europe: https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/isolated-diplomatically-china-taiwan-finding-friends-europe

Haiti President Vows to Defy Protests and Free ‘Captured’ State: https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/haitis-president-vows-to-defy-protests-and-free-captured-state