That China Vs India debate..

Heading back to our hotel after dinner , as our conversation departs from the usual work fare, I ask my Chinese colleague in anticipation of a juicy debate, “ So, what is the perception of the common citizen of China regarding India these days ? What do you guys think of India under Modi ?”.

 My colleague takes the briefest of pauses as if weighing the directness of his reply in his mind before saying in a matter of fact manner, “ Frankly Ayon, the Chinese people do not think of India so much. We are more concerned about the US”.

Ouch !

Like any self-respectful Indian on a daily diet of Bollywood-style nationalism infused in me through orchestrated media on both sides of the discourse, I wanted to contest this label of irrelevance in the collective psyche of our powerful neighbor who we, at least in the private confines of our living rooms , consider as our biggest competitor in the modern world. But for once, as my eyes gather the passing opulent cityscape of Beijing outside the car window, I know that I should gulp down my unsubstantiated pride and acknowledge that yes, China has managed to move way beyond our reach today , and for good reasons. It is sobering and humbling for my generation of Indians who stepped out into adult life post India’s globalization , taking immense pride in the strides our nation has taken since, when we realize that while we were congratulating ourselves over insignificant cricket victories with Manoj Kumar anthems, our neighbor was seriously beefing up , at a pace that was several times that of ours.

But given our intertwined destinies, this is a race that will live on through the march of history. They will win some. We will win others .

Let’s take a look at some numbers.

China and India are today the 2nd and the 5th (or 6th) largest economies and who control close to 20% of the global wealth on a nominal basis. Among Asian nations, China and India contribute to > 50% of Asia’s GDP. So far so good. Now let’s turn the calendars back by 30 years.

In 1987, China and India were equal in terms of GDP. Today, at $13 Trillion, China is five times that of India. Ouch, once again !

So what really happened ? Let us get into it.

1. In 1978, when China opened its economy, Chairman Deng Xiao Ping ( who succeeded Chairman Mao Tse Tung) famously said, “I don’t care of the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice”, thus setting into motion a manufacturing economy that started growing at 10%. India meanwhile, under Morarji Desai, was implementing 97% income tax and 3% wealth tax, sabotaging entrepreneurship, and planting seeds of a corrupt Babudom under whose effects we are still bleeding. Soon after, Indira Gandhi came in, nationalized the banks , introduced MRTP (’69), brought in FERA and nationalized Coal India ( 1973) , further choking the rupee, stubbing our growth rate to below 3%. Distribute this over the next three decades and you have the GDP math figured out.
2. Indian inflation is around 6 times that of China, which is another concern because growth under high inflation is not sustainable for long periods. For China, the government and its agencies are enablers and catalysts for the economy. For India, our SOEs are some of our biggest liabilities. Take Air India for instance. In recent years, we saw multiple private airlines (including Jet Airways) go bust. But Air India keeps hemorrhaging and yet being kept alive by tax payers’ money, making for the perfect case why the Indian government should not be in the business of doing business. But try broaching this subject and you will have our activists finding their next cause to go on a hunger strike.
3. The manufacturing productivity of China is 1.6 times that of India, meaning that it not only produces more, but also produces more efficiently than India. India, with its erratic electric supply, transport problems and lack of skilled and disciplined labor, struggles . Yes, the present government in India has been making a commendable push in improving manufacturing productivity, but it cannot be achieved overnight. With a lower rate of urbanization (37%) as compared to China ( 58%), India is also lagging in the way it absorbs foreign technology as against China who have a far robust localization drive. Besides, the sheer size of its economy gives China the muscle to invest in or support technological growth. Take Huawei for instance, the global leader in 5G, the technology that will shape the future of industries, from automobiles to healthcare, no matter if America likes it or not.
4. Attending a team meeting at Zhengzhou , I was as awestruck by its history as I was amazed by its modern infrastructure. Zhengzhou is a Tier-2 city of China ( Quick exercise - Try to visualize a Tier 2 city in India for reference purposes) . I always get similar feelings while visiting other Tier 2 or even Tier 3 cities in China, which can easily put to shame most of the Tier 1 cities in the rest of the world. All this has come forth because of China’s ruthless rigor on execution. I am told that Chinese city councils compete with each other on how fast and how much more efficiently they can execute development programs . Compare this to India – any scheme our government wants to implement, is met with compulsory resistance of political opponents inside the parliament. Outside the parliament, you have Ravish Kumar, Medha Patkar, Shekhar Gupta, Javed Akhtar and Aamir Khan. Then you have the liberals and armchair intellectuals like Aparna Sen and others who are permanently anti-establishment, and who will invariably find ten problems to every solution. True, the current government, thanks to its majority, is trying to wrestle out long pending reforms, but in terms of speed of implementation, we are nowhere near China.
5. India is projected to overtake China as the most populous nation in the world by 2027. At a median age of 26.7, India is younger than China which averages at 37.0. Partially contributed by China’s one-child policy for 3 decades , experts claim that China is sitting on a demographic time bomb, given the fact that there are more people outside the workforce than inside, meaning that on average , one Chinese worker pays for two retirees. Technically, this could have been a trump card in India’s favor, but, it actually hasn’t. What China lacks in quantity in its workforce, it makes up with quality and productivity. By nature, the average Chinese person is more disciplined, law abiding, inquisitive ,hard working & more eager to adapt than the average Indian. The much touted ‘Jugaad’ ( frugal innovation) mindset that India pioneered, has snowballed into a work-ethic deficit for us. This lure of shortcuts and lack in general discipline is perhaps the biggest bottleneck in our country’s progress. What is even worse is that we actually take pride in it. We think we are the smartest people in the world and every other nation is conspiring against us because we are so good. Patting ourselves in denial , we spit Guthka on our roads, we honk ourselves silly while in traffic, we break laws at the slightest provocation , and we criticize the system for everything, never for once pausing to realize that we ourselves are the system. If you observe an average Chinese person, the first thing that will strike you is how much they respect orderliness, whether or not it is convenient for them on the face of it or not. This adherence to discipline at a national level has enabled them to witness and experience such dizzy progress that they are convinced about it’s merit now. We Indians on the other hand, mock at rules, condemn our politicians, then allow ourselves to be manipulated by them and re-elect the same politicians . Then we cry foul. And once in a while if a political order tries to bring in reforms using force , the rebel in us finds reasons to shoot it down, lest it calls for walking the hard walk ( even if it is good for us). Then we conveniently settle down in front of our Television sets and immerse ourselves into the latest IPL match or an Arnab Goswami debate ( ( Vs Arnab Goswami, and moderated by Arnab Goswami himself :) ) , or better still , a Bollywood movie that glorifies a Bhai or a Baba.
6. Reminds me, some years ago Bollywood gave us an over- hyped biopic of Milkha Singh, a film that took a hell lot of time to narrate a feat that lasted for 45 seconds in reality. I had some issues with this subject itself . Let me explain. When Roger Bannister shattered several physiological (and psychological) barriers of mankind by breaking the 4-min mile (stone) - while the world cheered with genuine admiration, it did not go overboard. That’s the reason his record lasted for only FORTY SIX DAYS !THAT is the power of belief systems in sports. In case of Milkha Singh, India chose to bury all his shortcomings (including that of failing a qualifier due to his reckless personal conduct ) or for missing a medal in the biggest stage of world sport. Because later, our then Indian Prime minister went ahead to woo him (after his Olympic loss) and to plead him to go and run a ‘friendly ’ in Pakistan. And THAT win in Pakistan is shown as the highest point in Milkha’s career – which completely eclipses his ghost of the Rome Olympics !! And probably that’s the reason why nobody in our country ever broke his record for four decades. From sports to technology to life in general, we Indians are often guilty of celebrating second bests and finding excuses to hand out consolation prizes. When a Chinese athlete wins Silver, she breaks down because she lost her gold. For us, when Virat Kohli and company let us down with their sloppy show at the WC Semi Finals, we are quick to pardon them and we soon go gaga over their Instagram posts instead, sign them for multi-million dollar endorsements and give out a message that it is okay to be second or third best, because after all, we are Indians ('Hum toh aise hain bhaiyaa!') . No matter how badly India fares in a world cup and keeps getting pummeled by minnows – yet we cannot stop gushing with pride when we say that “Pakistan has never managed to defeat India in a world cup match !”. How silly is that ! Besides, have you ever paused to check out some of India’s entries in the Guinness Records ? From the most expensive suit to the world’s heaviest Biriyani to the largest moustache to the longest toenail and so on. I mean - Seriously guys ?

I understand I have been very blunt in my above post and must have angered a lot of my Indian friends who will condemn me for this. My request is, please criticize or troll me if you wish, but do acknowledge this in your heart of hearts that these are genuine problems we need to overcome on this page of history if we need to grow into a Five Trillion economy and beyond. Ours is a great nation that has a heritage equally rich as China’s . From Zero to Chess to the first ever university in the world , from Buddhism to Yoga to Ayurveda to Fortune 100 CEOs of India origin ( Okay, let me throw in Sachin Tendulkar and Aishwarya Rai in the mix too :) ) , we have so many reasons to be proud of ourselves. We have a younger workforce and we are ( so far) better off when it comes to English language communication ( verbal / written) skills than China, which positions us better on the world stage. Most importantly, unlike China, we are still a functional, plural and inclusive democracy, no matter what critics say . We just need to harness our collective pride in our nation and believe in ourselves to surge ahead during the next decade with humilty, hard work and a lot of discipline . Because if we miss this decade, we will miss our date with history yet again.

============================

( My Sunday Blog Post, 08/09/19)

The data points are from public domain information / articles and the views are personal, with no intent to offend anyone. If the post agrees with you, do hit 'Like', or leave a comment. My articles may or may not be relevant to my day job.