China is slowing down, and now India is the new promised land of multinationals.

With Beijing slowing down, the consumer goods giants are turning their attention to New Delhi, a market with growth rates that promise significant profit margins and a bright future.

For China, that is not growing at the expected rate, and India is running fast. Thus, the large consumer goods producers, from Pepsi to Unilever, are looking with increasing interest to the country. Reuters highlights this in an in-depth analysis, recalling how the Indian economy is expanding rapidly among the leading emerging markets. Companies are adopting their products to better intercept a possible growth in demand from the population. "While in the last decade companies have focused on sales in China, the next decade will focus on sales in India," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist of Annex Wealth Management. "You have to go where the demographic and economic winds blow."

The growth of the market share

Also contributing to India's growth, as highlighted by Reuters, are factors such as an increase in public spending, a better monsoon season, and a recovery in private consumption in the following quarters. These factors, according to research firm GlobalData, are expected to push the combined market share of the top five multinationals - Coca-Cola, P&G, PepsiCo, Unilever and Reckitt - up to 20.53% in 2023 from 19.27% in 2022. The same five giants are expected to see the opposite dynamic in China, with their combined market share expected to shrink to 4.30% in 2023 from 4.37% in 2022.

China in the slowdown

'China has weathered a prolonged period of COVID and even experienced a brief period of negative growth, followed by a sluggish recovery. In contrast, India's growth rate, hovering around 4%, presents a solid and promising outlook for some consumer goods,' observed K Ramakrishnan, general manager for South Asia at Kantar's Worldpanel division. He added, 'Both urban and rural segments in India have shown growth, with the rural sector performing particularly well.'