China Relations with the World: A Floor Nowhere in Sight
"A candid, pragmatic and constructive exchange..."
In diplomatic parlance, these comments from China's Commerce Ministry were an indication that the first virtual meeting between US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He didn't go badly.
In an interview with Reuters prior to the call, Representative Tai indicated that the relationship faces "very large challenges." In our world of over-analysis, this is being taken as a sign of thawing and an opportunity to move forward with a more constructive framework. While the Biden administration, with its process-driven approach to China, could see ways to tone down the rhetoric and re-engage, it will be fleeting.
Any fruitful conversations about trade, semiconductors, or climate will be swept aside when there is any mention of "the lab".
Over the next twelve months, dozens of countries around the world will initiate governments/parliamentary inquiries into COVID. They will assess the government responses, the efficacy of lockdowns, ways to prevent this from happening again.
All of these investigations will start with one fundamental question. "What was the origin of COVID?". Every single country will point the finger at China as the host, and while it will be impossible to clarify the source of the initial mutation, all of these inquiries will investigate the theory that the virus originated in a laboratory in Wuhan. There will be no way to prove this.
There will be no Guardian/WSJ investigative series into the source, with whistleblowers validating what the conspiracy theorists have felt all along. There will be no cooperation with Beijing and what will develop is an increasingly defensive and adversarial posture of the Chinese Communist Party who would face an existential threat if these claims were true.
The result of these accusations will be a hyper-aggressive China, the sort of response delivered by a country with something to hide. I am not implying that the "rogue virus from a lab" theories have merit, but when China has refused to concede the obvious that Beijing allowed foreign travel when it was clear that COVID was highly contagious, it shows the propaganda machine is in control of the narrative. "Wolf Warrior Diplomacy," the aggressive posturing that China has adopted over issues such Xijiang and Hong Kong, will be the modus operandi. It will entail trade wars with small countries it can bully like Australia. It will mean a lack of progress on existing programs, such as the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement of Investment.
While the first engagement between Representative Tai and Vice Premier Liu He was constructive, this is all swept aside the moment the United States formally accuses China of being the source of the most significant economic disruption since World War II.
The result is a China that continues to look inward and accelerates its efforts for complete self-reliance. While the prospect of better relations between the US and China under the Biden administration was far too rosy given the hawks who are in charge of policy, at least there is process and discussions.
To move the US-China relationship forward, it required some concessions from Beijing. They will be in no mood to do so when the global community begins to formally point the finger at them as the source of the pandemic. Imagine what happens if the US inquiry formally blames a Chinese laboratory as ground zero for the global pandemic.
No amount of soybean purchases can make up for that.