China recent activities

C?SOME RECENT ACTIVITIES OF CHINA REQUIRED TO BE TAKEN INTO SERIOUS CONSIDERATION

?FIRST EXAMPLE OF CHINA’S AGGRESSION

?CHINA AND TAIWAN TENSION ESCALATION FROM PRE-VISIT OF US PELOSI

?China is staging live-fire military drills in six self-declared zones surrounding Taiwan in response to a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island Beijing claims as its own territory. China has warned aircraft and ships to avoid the areas during the exercises. The drills appear to be a rehearsal for a potential blockade and invasion of the island that would almost certainly draw in Taiwan’s chief supporter, the United States, along with American allies including Japan and Australia.

China enjoys overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. Over the past decade, Beijing has developed far more accurate and precise weapon systems to target Taiwan and has been vocal about its intention to “reunite” the island with the mainland, by force or coercion if needed. Missile strikes, cyberattacks, and air and naval blockade aside, undertaking a full-scale invasion across the Taiwan Strait, with attendant risks of anti-ship and anti-air attacks, could present challenges for China. The PLA is estimated to have air and naval resources to carry out an initial landing of 25,000 or more troops, which could increase if it deploys civilian ships to meet its military objectives. However, it will have to first select and secure a suitable beachhead from among the handful that is available. Therefore, before Nancy Pelosi during her visit to Taiwan as part of her Asia tour, China said it is suspending dialogue with the United States on issues from climate change to military relations and anti-drug efforts in retaliation for a visit this week to Taiwan by the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. This response is the latest in a series of targeted steps intended to punish Washington for allowing the visit to the island it claims as its own territory. A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement said Friday that Pelosi had disregarded China’s concerns and resolute opposition to her visit to the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims. The Chinese statement called Pelosi’s visit provocative and said it undermines China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It said that sanctions would be imposed on Pelosi and her immediate family but did not say what they would be. Such sanctions are generally mostly symbolic in nature.?

?The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, landed in Taiwan on 2.8.22,?ignoring Chinese?threats and a warning by President Xi Jinping, delivered to President Joe Biden last week, to “not play with fire” (by provoking China). Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is the highest-level visit by an American official to the island in a quarter century. The senior US politician has been critical of China on multiple fronts over the decades. The US has maintained a ‘One China’ policy since the 1970s, under which it recognizes Taiwan as a part of China. But it has unofficial ties with Taiwan as well — a strategy that is known as strategic or deliberate ambiguity. Beijing considers Taiwan a part of China, threatens it frequently, and has not ruled out taking the island by military force at any time.?

?Taiwan had to ascent jets to warn away 49 Chinese aircraft in its air defense zone. At least 30 Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line. China will not be able to isolate Taiwan by preventing United States officials from traveling there, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in Tokyo as she wrapped up an Asia tour that has escalated tensions in the region. “They may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places, but they will not isolate Taiwan by preventing us to travel there,” she said. Further added her visit to Taiwan was not intended to change the status quo for the island but to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan and mainland China. She praised Taiwan's hard-fought democracy and success in technology and business while criticizing Chinese violations of trade agreements, weapons proliferation, and human rights problems, including its treatment of its Muslim Uyghur minority. Beijing has tried to isolate Taiwan, including by preventing the self-governing island from joining the World Health Organization, Pelosi said. This comes as China continues to hold threatening military exercises in six zones off Taiwan’s coasts. China’s military exercises aimed at Taiwan, including missiles fired into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, represent a “significant escalation,”.?Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das stated India is unlikely to be impacted by any adverse developments in Taiwan as it accounts for only 0.7 percent of India’s overall trade and the capital flows from the island are also not exceedingly high.

China says Japan's Taiwan stance justifies the 'wrongdoers'

Japanese officials' recent statements on the current tensions in the Taiwan Strait were an attempt to justify the 'wrongdoers', a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said during a regular briefing. The harsh remarks from Beijing come after foreign ministers of G7 nations - including Japan - called on China to resolve tension around the Taiwan Strait in a peaceful manner, prompting China to cancel a planned meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Japanese counterpart on the sidelines of ASEAN events in Cambodia. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Cambodia’s capital Phnom Penh in view of concerns over “challenges” in Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and the situation in the Indo-Pacific.?

???The “porcupine doctrine”

The “porcupine doctrine,” which was proposed in 2008 by US Naval War College research professor William S Murray, is a strategy of asymmetric warfare focused on fortifying a weak state’s defenses to exploit the enemy’s weaknesses rather than taking on its strengths.

??Asymmetric systems of defense

In its 2021 Quadrennial Defense Review, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense defined asymmetric systems as ones that are “small, numerous, smart, stealthy, mobile and hard to be detected and countered”, and “associated with innovative tactics and employments”. As such systems are “a large number of small things.”

??SECOND EXAMPLE OF CHINA’S AGGRESSION

?CHINESE SHIP THAT DOCKED AT SRI LANKA PORT FOR MORE THAN SIX DAYS

?China says the ship is used for scientific research, but the US says the ship is under China PLA. After all, a high-tech Chinese research ship docked at the strategically important Hambantota port departed from Sri Lankan waters after a controversial six-day visit. The ballistic missile and satellite tracking ship 'Yuan Wang 5' ship was originally scheduled to arrive at the Chinese-run port on August 11 but it was delayed in absence of permission by Sri Lankan authorities following security concerns raised by India. The Chinese ship arrived in the southern Sri Lankan port of Hambantota on August 16, 2022. It was docked there for replenishment. The ship left the port at 4 pm local time, harbor master Nirmal Silva told reporters here. Its next port call is at China's Jiang Yin port. The Hambantota port officials said as agreed there was no rotation of personnel during the call. Sri Lanka provided the necessary assistance sought by the Chinese embassy here during the ship's visit.

?On August 13, Colombo granted the port access to the vessel from August 16 to 22 on the condition that it will keep the Automatic Identification System (AIS) switched on within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Sri Lanka and no scientific research to be conducted in Sri Lankan waters. Sri Lanka has said that the security clearance was granted from the Ministry of Defense for the visit of the vessel for replenishment purposes during the stipulated period. It said no rotation of personnel would take place during the port call and the Sri Lankan government was requested to provide the necessary assistance by the Chinese Embassy in Colombo. The security and cooperation in the neighborhood are of utmost priority in handling the issue of the Chinese vessel Wang Yang 5. The local telecommunications regulatory authority had issued a No Objection Letter for the use of frequencies and communication equipment subject to non-interference and non-protection basis.

There were apprehensions in New Delhi about the possibility of the vessel's tracking systems attempting to sneak on Indian defense installations while being on its way to the Sri Lankan port. China says the ship is used for scientific research, but the US Defense Department says the ship is under the command of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) and is capable of tracking satellites and missile launches. The ship's arrival at the Hambantota port became controversial as China leased the port from Sri Lanka in 2017 for 99 years after Colombo failed to pay debts related to the construction of the facility. Colombo's nod to the docking of the Chinese research vessel was crucial as the cash-strapped Sri Lankan government is seeking an early bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China is a major creditor of Sri Lanka and is vital to Sri Lanka's efforts to restructure its debt to secure a bailout from the IMF.

?THIRD EXAMPLE OF CHINA’S AGGRESSION

?Xi and Putin to Attend G-20 Summit in Indonesia, and Indonesian president Widodo speaks in a Bloomberg interview, he said a ?rivalry of big countries ‘worrying,’ pushes for peace. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are both planning to attend a Group of 20 summits in the resort island of Bali later this year, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said. “Xi Jinping will come. President Putin has also told me he will come,” Jokowi, as the president said in an interview with Bloomberg. It was the first time the leader of the world’s fourth-most populous nation confirmed both were planning to show up at the November summit.

The dollar moved higher against Asia-Pacific currencies after the publication of the report as geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the US currency as a haven. The presence of Xi and Putin at the meeting would set up a showdown with US President Joe Biden and other democratic leaders, all of whom are set to meet in person for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The attack, which came shortly after Putin and Xi declared a “no limits” partnership, has left the G-20?divided?over whether to place sanctions on Russia. We are ready to step up coordination and cooperation with Indonesia to ensure the full success of the summit,” he said at a news briefing in Beijing. Putin and Jokowi discussed preparations for the G-20 summit in Bali, the Kremlin said in a statement that didn’t mention whether the Russian leader will attend. Putin’s attendance could also bring him face to face with Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since Russia’s invasion because the Ukrainian president is also slated to be in Bali.

Biden had?called?for Russia to be removed from the G-20 following its invasion of Ukraine, and US officials had earlier been pressuring Indonesia to exclude Putin from the Bali summit. There is also simmering tension between the US and China, even as Biden and Xi leave open the possibility of holding their first face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the Bali summit. As the current G-20 host, Indonesia has sought to balance ties between major powers while resisting pressure to exclude Russia from meetings. In the wake of Pelosi’s Taiwan visit earlier this month, Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry said?the world “needs wisdom and responsibility to maintain peace and stability,” while emphasizing that it respected a One China policy as expressed by other Southeast Asian nations. Jokowi dismissed concerns that US-China tensions over Taiwan could spill over into the South China Sea, where Indonesia has territorial claims, saying nations should instead focus on dealing with crises over food, energy, and the pandemic. Southeast Asian countries wanted richer countries to help provide funds to transition to renewable energy and investments to grow their economies, he added. Indonesia's affection towards China is not without reason as China together with Hong Kong has invested $40 billion in Indonesia. While in the five years to 2022, US investments in Indonesia were less than a quarter of the combined $40 billion that China and Hong Kong have put in. Companies from China were investing in building highways and high-speed railways and pouring in funds to construct more commodity processing plants.?While Russia accounts for only a small amount of investments, Indonesia’s state-owned energy company?Pertamina has a joint venture with Rosneft,?to build a $13.5 billion refinery. Indonesia is seeking trade and investments that boost economic growth and improve the lives of the nation’s 275 million people, Jokowi said, adding that it was not seeking to join any bloc. “Indonesia wants to be friends with everyone,” he said. “We do not have problems with any country. Each country will have its own approach. Each lender has its own approach. But what is needed by Indonesia is an investment, technology that will change our society.”

?CHINA IS INDIA’S THREAT NO.1, WANG YI VISIT WAS JUST A STRATEGIC PAUSE IN BEIJING’S CAMPAIGN OF AGGRESSION

?India must stick to its existing stance on border standoff resolution as a prerequisite for normalizing bilateral relations with China. The visit of the Chinese foreign minister to New Delhi without a prior official announcement has generated immense excitement. A vibrant media and the ‘experts’ often fuel such excitement with expectations of a breakthrough in relations which may be misplaced in this context. It may be prudent to view the India-China relationship pragmatically, keeping in mind the complex historical facts. A statement in 1998 by then defense minister George Fernandes labeling China as ‘Threat No. 1’ to India’s national security created a furor in both India and China. Two decades later, when India is experiencing frequent incursions like in Doklam (2017) and Ladakh (2020), the latter has lasted almost two years, besides open support to Pakistan on bilateral issues like Jammu and Kashmir has made George Fernandes’s 1998 statement ‘profound’.India’s relations with China come with a lot of historical baggage — in the past, our lack of forethought, planning, and pragmatism in national security policy resulted in repeated cases of missed opportunities.

?Historically, prior to 1950, Tibet was India’s neighbor, China did not share any borders with India, till it invaded Tibet in 1950. During the period 1917-1933, the official ‘Postal Atlas of China’ showed Aksai Chin as part of India. This position was backed by the ‘Treaty of Chushul’ of 1842 signed between the Dogra king Gulab Singh and Qing of Tibet. The McMahon Line which was negotiated between the British Indian government and Tibet in 1914 defined the boundary in Arunachal Pradesh. However, when the Communist government led by Mao Zedong came to power in China in 1949, it captured Turkestan (Xinjiang) 1949 followed by the forced annexation of Tibet in 1950 after which they disregarded all agreements signed by the previous government of Tibet. Resultantly, China now became India’s neighbor and started claiming the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which was then called Northeast Frontier Agency (NEFA), and large parts of Ladakh. Indian governments of that time failed to comprehend the Chinese intentions which resulted in the humiliating defeat of India in the 1962 India-China war because of a lack of defense preparedness and political interference in ‘matters military’. India learned that this war acted as a wake-up call for the Indian government to shed the ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai’ mindset and modernize her defense forces. The result of this modernization effort by the Indian government was displayed in a befitting reply to Pakistan in the 1965 India-Pakistan War for their misadventure in Jammu and Kashmir as also to the Chinese in 1967 at Nathu La (Sikkim) and again in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu (Arunachal Pradesh). China suffered heavy causalities in both the border clashes. Resultantly, since 1987, borders with China remained peaceful till the Galway Valley incident of 2020 in which 20 Indian jawans attained martyrdom and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed. It is evident from the outcome of these encounters that the Indian Army repeatedly displayed outstanding professionalism and commitment to be more than a match for her adversaries, sending the right message. However, it needs to be remembered that modern-day confrontations between states may not necessarily be restricted to soldiers in contact, it could range from hybrid to multi-domain warfare involving economic means and extensive use of technology aimed at paralyzing critical infrastructure.

CHINA’S RISE AND DEBT TRAPS

The economy is critical to national security. In the 1980s, the size of the Chinese and Indian economies was almost the same. Till that time, the Chinese military was not equipped with the latest weapon systems. Taking advantage of American rapprochement and China’s admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Chinese liberalized their economy without any corresponding changes in other political or social structures or behavior. Unfortunately, the entire world led by the Western democracies ignored the absence of human rights in China and facilitated China’s unhindered growth for almost four decades. During this period, the Chinese economy grew almost six times the size of the Indian economy and has now become the second largest economy in the world only after the USA, whom it is likely to surpass by 2030.

Simultaneously, China became the hub of the global supply chain and the pivot of global manufacturing both in terms of intermediate materials and finished goods. China has now become economically and militarily too strong to be easily handled by the West or any other grouping. In fact, China vigorously chased her economic dreams as part of a well-conceived strategy for a few decades before flexing her military muscle to challenge the existing World Order.

It absorbed modern technology through all possible means to make its military well equipped at the global level. China has an established defense industry, churning out both numbers and quality. It is no longer apologetic about the deficiencies of an autocratic political system. It proudly aims to proliferate the?Chinese Model of Governance?globally through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). During the last two years, China felt that time had come for it to assert its values globally which it exhibited by starting confrontations with multiple nations at the same time, with total disregard for the rule of international law. China’s handling of COVID-19 has cast doubts on her ability to act as a responsible global power because it has not come clean on the origin and spread of the virus. Her opaque systems and stonewalling of investigation have left more doubts in the minds of the global community than it has clarified. Economic exploitation of various countries during the COVID crisis has also not gone down well with many countries. It appears the Chinese have probably bitten more than they can chew on the BRI front. Additionally, global undercurrents against their role during the COVID outbreak are likely to make China nervous. These issues might not come out openly but there is an underlying annoyance with China. No multilateral agency is involved in the BRI projects and all deals with various countries are bilateral on terms favoring the Chinese in return for their investment. This has landed a large number of her BRI partners in a debt trap,?Sri Lanka?being one such example. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has not achieved any tangible results either. It appears the Chinese have probably bitten more than they can chew on the BRI front. Additionally, global undercurrents against their role during the COVID outbreak is likely to make China nervous. However, the Chinese have a great ability to visualize their future national interests, which they meticulously and ruthlessly work to achieve without losing sight. The visit of the Chinese foreign minister to India can at best be treated as a strategic pause in the continued Chinese aggressive behavior. This change is probably aimed at buying time and showing the world that it is a responsible global power. China would also like to host the BRICS summit with all heads of state attending it later this year.

The stance of the Indian government reiterating time and again, including during the current visit of Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, that relations between the two countries cannot be ‘business as usual unless the current border standoff is resolved, is a welcome step in the national interest. It must be conveyed to the Chinese that?their support to Pakistan?on Jammu and Kashmir and other bilateral India-Pakistan issues such as the one displayed at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation conference recently would not go down well with India. Chinese proposal of inviting India to partner with China in ensuring peace all over the world is welcome but that should not take attention away from our bilateral border issues. Chinese has a consistent record of not following the existing agreements including the agreement to maintain peace and tranquility at the borders, which need to be watched out for. Chinese proposal of inviting India to partner with China in ensuring peace all over the world is welcome but that should not take attention away from our bilateral border issues.

Going forward,?first, India must stick to its existing stance on border standoff resolution as a prerequisite for normalizing bilateral relations.?Second, pragmatism in dealing with China must be an overriding factor vis-a-vis optics. There must be no compromise on national security issues because Indian soldiers if equipped well are far superior to their Chinese counterparts in combat situations.?Third, India must speed up its self-reliance drive?in high technology defense manufacturing backed by a robust economy to ward off future threats from a strong and assertive China. China is known to respect strong competitors, hence the need to speed up sustained economic growth. Make a self-reliant and strong India” that can retain strategic independence and successfully meet future national security challenges. Wang Yi’s India Visit Not Impromptu signals a Churn Triggered by NATO-Russia Conflict. China's Foreign Minister Makes Surprise Stop in Kabul As West Fumes Over Taliban's Ban on Schools for Girls Pakistan, China Sign Agreements to Further Strengthen 'Iron-clad Friendship', Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi Will Visit Nepal on March 25 to Explore Bilateral Ties, Push BRI Projects.

Two years ago, the?Galway valley clash?came amid a period of intense Chinese People’s Liberation Army activity across different theatres. In March 2020, as WHO declared Covid a global pandemic, Chinese jets intensified drills along the?Taiwan Strait. The Liaoning carrier conducted take-off and landing exercises in the Bohai Strait and would later sail past Taiwan. The PLA Daily hailed the drills, boasting about war preparedness amid the pandemic. China’s geopolitically less secure than it was during the 2020 LAC clash. Its response: more aggression. For China, India remains a major threat, against which it is compelled to concentrate large forces. India last week conducted its first night-user firing of the newly introduced AGNI V ICBM. The missile range extends to the northern part of China. It forms a crucial part of India’s minimum deterrence policy. Earlier, China had questioned India’s missile trials by stating, “As for whether India can develop ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, the UNSCR 1172 already has clear stipulations.”

This UNSC resolution was issued post-nuclear tests by both India and Pakistan. It mentions that the two nations must not develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. India ignored Chinese comments. Simultaneously, China has passed its new border laws which make the PLA responsible for border regions. China has constructed border villages, where it forcibly moved Tibetans from their traditional grazing grounds, handing over those lands to Han Chinese to exploit for minerals. The new land laws make it mandatory for Tibetans living in these border villages to support military activities. These laws are mainly applicable to Bhutan and India, the two nations China has not settled its borders with. It is aware that its border dispute with Bhutan can only be settled with Indian concurrence. Though nothing changes between India and China with the passing of the new laws, the intention appears to be to project the continuation of the dispute.

The Indian foreign ministry reacted and stated, “It may be noted that India and China have still not resolved the boundary question…In this regard, China’s unilateral decision to bring about legislation that can have implications on our existing bilateral agreements on border management as well as on the boundary question is of concern to us. “Chinese foreign ministry officials dismissed Indian objections. Tensions between India and China continue along the northern and eastern borders. Talks with China have stalled. Additional forces would remain in place through harsh winters for the second consecutive year. In the past twenty months, China has replaced 20 battalions in Ladakh and has had large medical casualties due to weather conditions; however, due to its own stubbornness, it is compelled to remain in situ for future winters.

As per the Indian army’s Eastern Army Commander, Lt Gen Manoj Pande, Chinese exercises in the region have increased, as also has its troop density. Development of infrastructure continues on both sides. China is aware that India is no pushover. The recent incident in Tawang where Chinese troops were temporarily detained has hurt the Chinese ego. It employed every social media forum to deny the incident and stalled the last round of talks to convey its displeasure. When India announced it would impart lessons on Tibetology to its soldiers deployed along the LAC, the Chinese mouthpiece, the Global Times, stated that the Indian intention appears to be to deploy these troops in disputed regions. Indian deployment of K9 Vajra and M 777 155 mm guns in Eastern Ladakh was commented upon by the Chinese spokesperson as “China opposes any arms race in the disputed border areas for the purpose of competition over control.”

In retaliation, China deployed 100 long-range PCL-181 light, truck-mounted howitzers. In the Eastern theatre, India has deployed Pinaka and Smerch multiple barrel rocket systems in response to China deploying its rocket regiments. Troop levels maintained by both sides are at near parity, thus making operations difficult. India has sent the message that it will not be cowed down by Chinese pressures. The Indian armed forces have been building their capacities to counter a belligerent China, though not at the rate at which they should have. These additional capacities gave the forces the confidence to stare down China in Doklam, Galwan, and currently across the entire front. While India seeks talks to resolve the issue, there is no doubt that it possesses the will and capability to counter China. Few writers have projected stronger Chinese capability in noncontact warfare, forgetting that in declared fields India possesses a near equal status, while in unannounced fields, India is not far behind. Further, India has changed its concept of operations against China from defensive to offensive. The repositioning of strike corps forces from the west to the east and north as also completing the raising of the mountain strike corps, alongside rapid infrastructure development, send the message that India would retaliate if provoked.

The Global Times had attempted to brush aside India’s growing military capability by linking it with Indian dependence on imported weapons. It stated in an article, “Indian forces use weapons bought from different countries which may not coordinate with each other well, not to mention their undisciplined troops who can blow up their own submarine in a dockyard and shoot down a friendly helicopter.” It even attempted to drive a wedge between India and its western allies. The Global Times stated, “They (Quad) want to create a ‘dragon-elephant rivalry’, in which China and India are hostile against each other and consume each other in the long run. This way, they can cause loss to China in the short term and impoverish India in the long term – strategically killing two birds with one stone.” For China, India remains a major threat, against which it is compelled to concentrate large forces. The major Chinese fear stems from India opening a second front in case its operations against Taiwan, US or Japan are stalled or the US joins in to support Taiwan. The realignment of forces to enhance offensive capabilities has China worried. Its construction of additional billeting is due to this concern. The Global Times has stated, “with its national strength, China is fully capable of simultaneously dealing with challenges from the US, Japan, as well as India.” Evidently, this fear lurks in Chinese minds. In such a scenario, India must continue to stoke Chinese fears by ensuring that its force levels in the region possess offensive capabilities that can threaten key Chinese positions along the G 219 Highway. Regular offensive exercises must be conducted close to the LAC. India must remain a threat until the current border crisis is resolved.

Not so long ago, General Chi Haotian of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China said, “Only countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for MASS COLONIZATION”. Evidently, he forgot to think of Siberia, which is comparably vast and scarcely populated, and more convenient to capture because of its neighboring location. The general’s words “for mass colonization” in the German language would be lebensraum or living space. Incidentally, a search for lebensraum was Adolf Hitler’s excuse for conquering Europe. This was set out in detail by Hitler in his notorious autobiography Mein Kampf.

Xi Jinping, China’s president for life, does not appear to have written his biography, but his will to dominate the world is nevertheless as eloquent as any spelled out in Mein Kampf. The question is that many a country is anxious to stop Xi from going ahead with feeding his greed, but how many are willing to act? All of Europe knew of the danger Hitler posed, but many wanted “peace in our time” in the words of then British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. This was after he and French Prime Minister édouard Daladier met Hitler at Munich in 1938, along with Italian Duce Benito Mussolini. Neither prime minister had a conscience about surrendering to Hitler in one of the three regions of what is today the Czech Republic. They endorsed his gobbling up of Sudetenland, leaving behind only Moravia and Bohemia, which also were unilaterally gobbled up by the Nazis within six months.?Uncannily, Xinjiang, as well as Tibet, were grabbed by China with a comparable lack of conscience on the morrow of Mao Zedong’s successful revolution in 1949, ten years after Hitler’s misappropriations. On both occasions, the rest of the world watched with cool indifference. How many more million kilometers does the yellow giant wish to trample upon?

Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 and committed suicide in 1945, in all 12 years, whereas Xi Jinping, at age 67, may have a good number of years to go. Fortunately, the US has shown it is not oblivious to the Chinese threat. It has appointed a special coordinator to talk directly to the representative of the Tibetan government in exile, a post that had been vacant for a long. Robert Destro, the new American special coordinator for Tibet’s issues, will directly talk to the Tibetan people through its government in exile headquartered in Dharmasala, in Himachal Pradesh in India. This is an opportune US initiative which His Holiness the Dalai Lama should respond to with vigor. First, he should be free to publicly tell the young citizens of Tibet to come over to Mcleod Ganj. If they like, he will guarantee their employment, perhaps as his bodyguards and in other echelons of his government in exile. He should not be shy about taking American help. The combination of American readiness, India is far better equipped than before, and above all, China having antagonized many a country is a potent one. It would be unfortunate for the people of Tibet if the Dalai Lama does not get into an initiative mode. Opportunity does not materialize every day, which he well knows. Napoleon once defined destiny as “catching luck while it is flying”. Above all, he should immediately nominate his successor.

Probably, the world could have been in a happier situation had President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger not shown haste to go to Beijing to pay their respects to Mao Zedong in 1972. Their reasoning was that the Soviet Iron Curtain was impenetrable whereas the Chinese Bamboo Curtain was easier to enter. So, they entered the Red world and opened the gates of the free world for China to exploit any or every economy. Never mind that between Mao’s conservatism, Deng Xiao Ping’s enterprise, and Xi Jinping’s aggressiveness, there is not much difference. It would now appear that the World Trade Organization (WTO) was promoted unwittingly for the sake of Chinese exports. It is difficult to think of a country that has benefitted, over a period, by importing Chinese materials. Yes, in the short run, China helped its clients to reduce their costs of production, but given a few years, they became helplessly dependent. Take, for instance, an item like a toothbrush. For the nylon bristles, every manufacturer is dependent on the yellow giant. There are Western manufacturers of nylon bristles in India, but they too must depend on China for the import of some of the raw materials. Why were the Chinese costs of production, across the board, lower than the world's? The new entrepreneur leased land for practically no rent. To build the factory, the banks lent him term loans, often at rates as low as one percent per annum. He was seldom harassed for neglecting repayment of the loan. So long as he produced hard currency exports to the tune of say 75 percent of his production, such an exercise amounted to converting the renminbi, the Chinese currency, into the dollar.

The smaller entrepreneurs did not have to go out of China to look for markets. Public sector agencies identified which country imports what and consumes which products. Most such Chinese manufacturers operated their export business with the help of English-speaking Chinese agents. This is the package that enabled the Chinese to supply even Ganesh murtis at prices lower than that of any other supplier. With the foreign exchange thus earned and accumulated, China extends loans to smaller countries, whether Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Kenya, or other countries in Africa. If any borrower happens not to abide by the terms of repayment, its national assets, given as collateral security, are taken over, for example, Hambantota port near Galle in Sri Lanka. Even as this is being written, there are reports of thousands of Chinese citizens fleeing Hong Kong, out of fear of the next wave of crackdowns by China. The exodus is mainly to the UK. “The Hong Kong we knew no longer exists” is the common refrain. The Trump administration-imposed sanctions against China for what was identified as China’s covert war on the US. It can now be said that the Covid-19 pandemic, which has devastated the world, has been unleashed on the world by China ~ it is being termed the Wuhan virus with good reason. Global outrage against China, which was initially muted, is now becoming more vocal.

For India particularly, China’s bellicosity and aggression on the Ladakh border is a reminder that all displays of bonhomie notwithstanding, the neighbor is not going to change its attitude. China views India as a rival to be cut down to size. The fact that India has, under Narendra Modi, shed its timidity and is ready to stare the dragon in the eye is even more infuriating. China’s support for Pakistan, a known sponsor of jihadi terrorism has been to keep India on the boil. Hitler in 1939 spoke of the non-aggression pact and referred to Germany’s friendship with Poland as “one of the calming phenomena of European political life.” That ‘calm’ could not last even eight months. China under Mao similarly spoke of friendship and amity with India. Its premier Chou En Lai signed the Panchsheel Treaty in 1954, only to stab India in the back in 1962. Earlier in 1959, China invaded Tibet and has been illegally occupying it ever since, not to mention the unrelenting genocide of Tibetans and ceaseless attempts to wipe out Tibet’s culture. Its northeastern province of Xinjiang, home to the Muslim Uigur community who do not see themselves as Chinese is the target of the communist state’s brutal repression and slow genocide, which intensified after Xi came to power. Any “business as usual” approach to China, therefore, is like the appeasement of Hitler in the run-up to WWII.

?The world could have been in a happier situation had President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger not shown haste to go to Beijing to pay their respects to Mao Zedong in 1972. Their reasoning was that the Soviet Iron Curtain was impenetrable whereas the Chinese Bamboo Curtain was easier to enter.

??India last week conducted its first night-user firing of the newly introduced AGNI V ICBM. The missile range extends to the northern part of China. It forms a crucial part of India’s minimum deterrence policy. Earlier, China had questioned India’s missile trials by stating, “As for whether India can develop ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, the UNSCR 1172 already has clear stipulations.” This UNSC resolution was issued post-nuclear tests by both India and Pakistan. It mentions that the two nations must not develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. India ignored Chinese comments. Simultaneously, China has passed its new border laws which make the PLA responsible for border regions. China has constructed border villages, where it forcibly moved Tibetans from their traditional grazing grounds, handing over those lands to Han Chinese to exploit for minerals. The new land laws make it mandatory for Tibetans living in these border villages to support military activities. These laws are mainly applicable to Bhutan and India, the two nations China has not settled its borders with. It is aware that its border dispute with Bhutan can only be settled with Indian concurrence. Though nothing changes between India and China with the passing of the new laws, the intention appears to be to project the continuation of the dispute. The Indian foreign ministry reacted and stated, “It may be noted that India and China have still not resolved the boundary question…In this regard, China’s unilateral decision to bring about legislation which can have an implication on our existing bilateral agreements on border management as well as on the boundary question is of concern to us.” Chinese foreign ministry officials dismissed Indian objections. Tensions between India and China continue along the northern and eastern borders. Talks with China have stalled. Additional forces would remain in place through harsh winters for the second consecutive year. In the past twenty months, China has replaced 20 battalions in Ladakh and has had large medical casualties due to weather conditions; however, due to its own stubbornness, it is compelled to remain in situ for future winters.

As per the Indian army’s Eastern Army Commander, Lt Gen Manoj Pande, Chinese exercises in the region have increased, as also has its troop density. Development of infrastructure continues on both sides. China is aware that India is no pushover. The recent incident in Tawang where Chinese troops were temporarily detained has hurt the Chinese ego. It employed every social media forum to deny the incident and stalled the last round of talks to convey its displeasure. When India announced it would impart lessons on Tibetology to its soldiers deployed along the LAC, the Chinese mouthpiece, the Global Times, stated that the Indian intention appears to be to deploy these troops in disputed regions. Indian deployment of K9 Vajra and M 777 155 mm guns in Eastern Ladakh was commented upon by the Chinese spokesperson as “China opposes any arms race in the disputed border areas for the purpose of competition over control.”

In retaliation, China deployed 100 long-range PCL-181 light, truck-mounted howitzers. In the Eastern theatre, India has deployed Pinaka and Smerch multiple barrel rocket systems in response to China deploying its rocket regiments. Troop levels maintained by both sides are at near parity, thus making operations difficult. India has sent the message that it will not be cowed down by Chinese pressures. The Indian armed forces have been building their capacities to counter a belligerent China, though not at the rate at which they should have. These additional capacities gave the forces the confidence to stare down China in Doklam, Galwan, and currently across the entire front. While India seeks talks to resolve the issue, there is no doubt that it possesses the will and capability to counter China. Few writers have projected stronger Chinese capability in noncontact warfare, forgetting that in declared fields India possesses a near equal status, while in unannounced fields, India is not far behind. Further, India has changed its concept of operations against China from defensive to offensive. The repositioning of strike corps forces from the west to the east and north as also completing the raising of the mountain strike corps, alongside rapid infrastructure development, send the message that India would retaliate if provoked.

The Global Times had attempted to brush aside India’s growing military capability by linking it with Indian dependence on imported weapons. It stated in an article, “Indian forces use weapons bought from different countries which may not coordinate with each other well, not to mention their undisciplined troops who can blow up their own submarine in a dockyard and shoot down a friendly helicopter.” It even attempted to drive a wedge between India and its western allies. They (Quad) want to create a ‘dragon-elephant rivalry’, in which China and India are hostile against each other and consume each other in the long run. This way, they can cause loss to China in the short term and impoverish India in the long term – strategically killing two birds with one stone. For China, India remains a major threat, against which it is compelled to concentrate large forces. The major Chinese fear stems from India opening a second front in case its operations against Taiwan, US or Japan are stalled or the US joins in to support Taiwan. The realignment of forces to enhance offensive capabilities has China worried. Its construction of additional billeting is due to this concern.

The Global Times has stated, “with its national strength, China is fully capable of simultaneously dealing with challenges from the US, Japan, as well as India.” Evidently, this fear lurks in Chinese minds. In such a scenario, India must continue to stoke Chinese fears by ensuring that its force levels in the region possess offensive capabilities that can threaten key Chinese positions along the G 219 Highway. Regular offensive exercises must be conducted close to the LAC. India must remain a threat until the current border crisis is resolved. Before the Chinese military launched exercises on an unprecedented scale this week, the G7 had warned Beijing “not to unilaterally change the status quo by force”. Speaking alongside Pelosi in Tokyo on Friday, Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida said the drills were a “grave problem” after five missiles, at least one of which flew over Taipei, landed in Japan’s economic exclusive zone. “This is yet another example of Xi Jinping basically helping to create the security environment around China that he says he doesn’t want,” said Chris Johnstone, a former top US National Security Council official now at the CSIS think-tank. Eric Sayers, a security expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said the G7 statement was a testament to the “tough diplomatic work” that the Biden administration has done to create a more unified position with allies on Taiwan. “Beijing would like to sow division and scare countries off from commenting about Taiwan. That clearly didn’t happen here,” Johnstone said the Japanese position illustrated how China had miscalculated. Tokyo was concerned about the visit partly because it was trying to restart its engagement with Beijing. While Biden has spoken with his Chinese counterpart five times, Kishida has only had one conversation with Xi — a congratulatory call when he became prime minister. Johnstone said China’s response to Pelosi’s visit would “reinforce the perception in Japan that has been growing, that its security is linked to Taiwan’s”. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week drew a furious response from Beijing but helped unite US allies in Asia in opposition ? Chiang Ying-Ying/AP Australia also took a low-key stance ahead of the visit but then spoke out against China. “These exercises are disproportionate and destabilizing,” foreign minister Penny Wong said after previously urging all parties to de-escalate. Charles Edel, an Australia expert at CSIS, said the tensions came at a critical time in Australia, where there is a debate about the role the US ally would play in the event of a war with China over Taiwan. The one American ally in Asia that was conspicuous in not criticizing China directly was South Korea. President Yoon Suk-yeol was also the only leader not to meet Pelosi during her five-nation tour of Asia. ?“He exposed the kind of hesitation and division that only encourages Beijing to try to further divide the US government,” Green said. Michèle Flournoy, a former top Pentagon official and managing director of WestExec Advisors, said that while some smaller Asian countries were worried about being caught in the middle, European nations such as the UK and France would “strengthen their resolve”. Highlighting the alarm among smaller countries in the region, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers expressed concern about the “international and regional volatility” this week in a rare public statement. “We all have skin in this game and . . . want America and China to get along,” Singapore’s foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan said on the sidelines of an Asean meeting. “This is a dangerous, dangerous moment for the whole world.” ‘ Underscoring the danger, Jing Quan, the third-ranking Chinese diplomat in Washington, this week warned that “Taiwan is one of the very few issues that might take China and the United States to conflict or even war”. Most experts said Beijing dramatically altered the “status quo” concerning Taiwan this week. But others point out that Washington, Beijing, and Taipei have taken actions in recent years that have shifted the geopolitical landscape. China has flown increasingly large numbers of warplanes around Taiwan, while Taipei has pushed the US administration and Congress to boost its international position. Recommended The Big Read China is ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan.

??What will the US do next?

?While the White House stresses that it has not changed its “one China” policy — under which it recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China but only acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China — it too has taken steps, such as easing restrictions on officials meeting their Taiwanese counterparts, that have sparked alarms in Beijing. Biden has also on three occasions said the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan against an attack from China. “China, America, and Taiwan have all been pushing the envelope on the status quo, but then pretend the situation is still the status quo,” said one observer.

CONCLUSION

One reason some countries are increasingly nervous is that there is no sign that any of those involved are set to reverse direction soon. Jack Bianchi, an expert on China’s People’s Liberation Army at the CSBA think-tank, said China’s military response was partly due to Pelosi’s visit, but also reflected concern about the one-China policy. “They want to draw a line in the sand, so they don’t see a continuation of a trend that is strategically unfavorable to them,” Bianchi said. Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, told US allies were unlikely to pull back in response to China’s aggression, but they would look for more guidance from Washington as they considered their policy. “They are going to want to hear from the US what our strategy is going forward to prevent this from spiraling out of control,” Glaser said. ?

China's actions and reactions will play a key role to affect entire world peace. It is an impediment to the world to not allow China to global peace and prosperity. It is especially important for India to keep vigil over the movement and action being taken by China. China's history is full of its own citizen crushing ruthlessly just for power.